JoshKnows UFC on Fox 17

[JoshKnows46]

Rafael dos Anjos -200 risking $5000

Nate Diaz +415 risking $1000

Tamdan McCrory +150 risking $600

Cb Dolloway -380 risking $1800

Kamaru Usman -230 risking $1800

[bjpenn85]

I was almost sure dos anjos was your biggest bet, nate diaz on the other hand, thats a surprise. Hes coming in on quite bad terms, long layoff, questionable mentality in terms of motivation against a hungry and active johnson on a roll. The value is def on diaz but how does he win, striking, maybe, submission maybe, so more way sto win, but technically should also barboza win against johnson, but that didnt happen.

[JoshKnows46]

I was almost sure dos anjos was your biggest bet, nate diaz on the other hand, thats a surprise. Hes coming in on quite bad terms, long layoff, questionable mentality in terms of motivation against a hungry and active johnson on a roll. The value is def on diaz but how does he win, striking, maybe, submission maybe, so more way sto win, but technically should also barboza win against johnson, but that didnt happen.

I don't question nate diaz mentality in terms of motivation, he is in shape for this fight, and he needs a win. This is one of the few times I'm betting against the guy i Have favored to win, i have micheal johnson capped at -180 favorite, I made a substantial wager based on the +415 being over double what i have it handicapped, but thats based on Johnson coming in with a good gameplan, i have this closer on the feet then the dariush fight, if johnson comes in and fights like he did in the dariush fight, he'll still win a desision, as he should have in the dariush fight... i'm making a educated guess based of Johnson getting robbed of the desision in the dariush fight, that johnson will fight more aggressively, and be even crazy enough to take diaz down, if he gets into a brawl with diaz he will get knocked out or knocked down and subbed, if he takes it to the ground he could also get subbed, diaz has the reach to match johnson and he throws his punches from weird angles and i could see Johnson getting clipped if he doesn't come in and use his excellent footwork, movement as he did in the dariush fight, i will hedge with Johnson -121 by decision becuase the only way johnson wins is by decision if he fights smart, if he doesn't fight smart and lets his last lost affect his gameplan in this fight, i could see him losing by sub, knock out or decision, most likely outcome of him losing is diaz by sub, as johnson has 9 loses, with 6 of them coming by sub, 4 of johnsons last 5 fights have went to decision and i cant see him ko'ing or subbing diaz, so hedging johnson by decision is safe as they get, as far as a hedge is concerned,even if i hedge it around the total of my wager $1000, i still profit around $3,000 when diaz wins, and i'll be free rolling with diaz. i'll likely hedge between $600-$1200 on micheal johnson decision at -121, i haven't decided yet on the amount.

[Kermit]

Rafael dos Anjos -200 risking $5000

Nate Diaz +415 risking $1000

Tamdan McCrory +150 risking $600

Cb Dolloway -380 risking $1800

Kamaru Usman -230 risking $1800

[JoshKnows46]

Diaz / Johnson goes 3 round distance -150 Risking $1500 to win $1000 (basically a semi-hedge on my diaz bet, becuase no way does johnson finish diaz, if he wins, it will be by decision) (if diaz wins by dec i profit $5150, if diaz wins by sub/ko i profit $2650, if johnson wins by dec, I profit/Lose $0, if johnson wins by sub/ko i lose $2500. I feel this is the best way to go about betting this fight, I see this as a freeroll, becuase i give johnson 0%-5% chance of finishing diaz.

[JoshKnows46]

Oddsmakers got it backwards, should be McCrory -150, I'm a fan of Josh, but mcCrory has him beat where ever the fight goes, and mcCrory decides where he wants the fight to go.

[bjpenn85]

Oddsmakers got it backwards, should be McCrory -150, I'm a fan of Josh, but mcCrory has him beat where ever the fight goes, and mcCrory decides where he wants the fight to go.

Based on 1min 20 sec over two fights in Bellator? At this point im not going to question you, even though i do, but yeah how the earth are you making those assumptions with so little tape/data on Mcrory?

Im leaning Mcrory a bit myself, but maybe early more than later

[JoshKnows46]

Based on 1min 20 sec over two fights in Bellator? At this point im not going to question you, even though i do, but yeah how the earth are you making those assumptions with so little tape/data on Mcrory?

Im leaning Mcrory a bit myself, but maybe early more than later

he fought in the ufc before he took time off, those aren't his only 2 fights. he has 16 fights, 2 more than Samman. Samman is highly aggressive, bad striking defense though, he's open to getting clipped or takedown and finished early, dont see it lasting long. hoping it lasts longer then i expect, becuase its a good scrap with two aggressive strikers, but tamden is more calculated, better striking defense and has more options to win the fight.

[bjpenn85]

he fought in the ufc before he took time off, those aren't his only 2 fights. he has 16 fights, 2 more than Samman. Samman is highly aggressive, bad striking defense though, he's open to getting clipped or takedown and finished early, dont see it lasting long. hoping it lasts longer then i expect, becuase its a good scrap with two aggressive strikers, but tamden is more calculated, better striking defense and has more options to win the fight.

I hear you.

[Sanity Check]

I think Leon Edwards has been training at AKA with Cormier, Velasquez, Rockhold and friends. It'll be interesting to see if they tightened up Edwards' wrestling game enough for him to keep the fight standing. Also considering whether Kowalkiewicz and Shevchenko might pull the upsets. At the weigh ins, its been said Shevchenko beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk in muay thai more than once. I know Kowalkiewicz and Jedrzejczyk work with some of the same people. Shevchenko and Kowalkiewicz could both be underrated.

[bjpenn85]

I think Leon Edwards has been training at AKA with Cormier, Velasquez, Rockhold and friends. It'll be interesting to see if they tightened up Edwards' wrestling game enough for him to keep the fight standing. Also considering whether Kowalkiewicz and Shevchenko might pull the upsets. At the weigh ins, its been said Shevchenko beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk in muay thai more than once. I know Kowalkiewicz and Jedrzejczyk work with some of the same people. Shevchenko and Kowalkiewicz could both be underrated.

I know, if schevchenko is this skilled she could probably smoke kaufmann. It appears that more people are coming in on her as well, line is dropping significantly which often means that the public is right.

[Sykes]

I was thinking Cerrone after reading some things but then I watched some videos last night. Seen him talking about his granny. Saying when I win the belt ill give it to her then she can go. How the fuk can you say that, she might be sick but is the picture of health. Like Conor says these guys dont think about winning, they think about other things. Will be betting Dos Anjos for sure, Cerrone winning would make a better fight with Conor but I don't think he will.

Also like your Diaz pick will tail that, I like Johnson but he can be shit sometimes.

If you ever want to spread your word a bit further, I run mmabettingodds(.)com will gladly accept prediction posts. The Kamikaze Overdrive guy is a buddy of mine, I helped him set that up, he honestly is putting Luca Fury to shame atm. If you ever wanna do similar, could help out. Would of PM'd that but got banned from PMing trying to get Vauhany to write for me ages ago.

[Sykes]

I think Leon Edwards has been training at AKA with Cormier, Velasquez, Rockhold and friends. It'll be interesting to see if they tightened up Edwards' wrestling game enough for him to keep the fight standing. Also considering whether Kowalkiewicz and Shevchenko might pull the upsets. At the weigh ins, its been said Shevchenko beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk in muay thai more than once. I know Kowalkiewicz and Jedrzejczyk work with some of the same people. Shevchenko and Kowalkiewicz could both be underrated.

This is why I like this place. Good info, if Kuffman is anything she is a good punching bag. The other girl wias the good wrestler from Tuf right? I thought she was decent on that show.

[PaperTrail07]

Diaz strictly on value. Samman by way of skill (k0) other than that gl sir. I'm w ya

[TPowell]

Against you on 2 plays which scares me, but I have no clue how you can lay juice with CB. He's a moron and loves getting tagged at the wrong time.

[rowdyroddyrodd]

Dos Anjos is down to -205 from -270.Keep on pounding the Cowboy everyone.Then i'll pounce on Dos Anjos.

[TPowell]

yep you'll be counting your money like those that waited to bet Aldo last weekend

[agendaman]

luque big pts. win

[Kermit]

Oddsmakers got it backwards, should be McCrory -150, I'm a fan of Josh, but mcCrory has him beat where ever the fight goes, and mcCrory decides where he wants the fight to go.

[TPowell]

this mother rooster_eater, haven't been positing on here much but seems far and away the best MMA capper

[Duckshit]

I'm with you on everything But Nate.......nooooo

[agendaman]

mccrory huge josh

[2Shirts]

Rafael dos Anjos -200 risking $5000 -

tailed, but for a smaller amount - sorry if I fukk you, but I pissed somebody off and can't win a bet to save my life. Again, sorry

[JoshKnows46]

Rafael dos Anjos -200 risking $5000 -

tailed, but for a smaller amount - sorry if I fukk you, but I pissed somebody off and can't win a bet to save my life. Again, sorry

No worries, your gonna win that one.

[FlipsideRM]

Easy $ thanks josh

[rowdyroddyrodd]

Money Line

$174.00

$100.00

Martial Arts - 24202 Rafael Dos Anjos -174 for Game

Thanks Josh!

[Deceptakhan]

Bravo man!!!!!!

[KingHawkins]

Dude. Nice. You're owed like over $7K or something? Awesome event I would say

[bjpenn85]

Worst part is, he earned like 6000 dollars last event. Josh is now probably the worlds richest mma better, and probably the best. Hats off.

[KingHawkins]

Right this moment,,,, I might jump off a bridge holding his hand if he told me we would be safe and super rich afterwards

[agendaman]

made me money tx josh that dolloway loss really surprised me

[JoshKnows46]

Thanks, glad to hear others made out well.
5-1 on the night/ +$7532.61

[JoshKnows46]

I think Leon Edwards has been training at AKA with Cormier, Velasquez, Rockhold and friends. It'll be interesting to see if they tightened up Edwards' wrestling game enough for him to keep the fight standing. Also considering whether Kowalkiewicz and Shevchenko might pull the upsets. At the weigh ins, its been said Shevchenko beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk in muay thai more than once. I know Kowalkiewicz and Jedrzejczyk work with some of the same people. Shevchenko and Kowalkiewicz could both be underrated.

Well done, good call on the two women fights brotha.

[Kermit]

Good job Josh.

[JoshKnows46]

I was thinking Cerrone after reading some things but then I watched some videos last night. Seen him talking about his granny. Saying when I win the belt ill give it to her then she can go. How the fuk can you say that, she might be sick but is the picture of health. Like Conor says these guys dont think about winning, they think about other things. Will be betting Dos Anjos for sure, Cerrone winning would make a better fight with Conor but I don't think he will.

Also like your Diaz pick will tail that, I like Johnson but he can be shit sometimes.

If you ever want to spread your word a bit further, I run mmabettingodds(.)com will gladly accept prediction posts. The Kamikaze Overdrive guy is a buddy of mine, I helped him set that up, he honestly is putting Luca Fury to shame atm. If you ever wanna do similar, could help out. Would of PM'd that but got banned from PMing trying to get Vauhany to write for me ages ago.

Appreciate the offer, but I enjoy just posting my picks here, and I'm good with that, can direct your guys here to view my bets. I don't want to get tied up into a commitment, or charge anyone for my thoughts, I just post when I can, and they can come check it if yall like. Thanks though.