UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit (January 02, 2016)

[bjpenn85]

Luca Fury with a solid and thorough 3 page long breakdown of Condit vs Lawler. https://www.furysfightpicks.com/ufc-...-betting-odds/

Furys is up 50+ units or something this year, and hes up 180-190+ units last 2-3 years while Kalikas have only scored 40+ units over same period. So Lucas opinion is def IMO more too be trusted off the so called professionals.

[BELM0NT]

Luca Fury with a solid and thorough 3 page long breakdown of Condit vs Lawler. https://www.furysfightpicks.com/ufc-...-betting-odds/

Furys is up 50+ units or something this year, and hes up 180-190+ units last 2-3 years while Kalikas have only scored 40+ units over same period. So Lucas opinion is def IMO more too be trusted off the so called professionals.

Another capper worth considering http://mmabettingtips.com , I know it's paid but it's cheap. I know he's on Poirier for sure

[mirinquads]

Luca Fury with a solid and thorough 3 page long breakdown of Condit vs Lawler. https://www.furysfightpicks.com/ufc-...-betting-odds/

Furys is up 50+ units or something this year, and hes up 180-190+ units last 2-3 years while Kalikas have only scored 40+ units over same period. So Lucas opinion is def IMO more too be trusted off the so called professionals.

Luca fury, eeeewwwww

[JIBBBY]

Wasn't Luca Fury the most laughed at man on this forum at one time? Miri remembers..

The dude at one point couldn't win a bet if I remember correctly.. Lied and said he was winning when he really wasn't.. He was also in trouble with the law or living with his mom if I'm not mistaken? I could be wrong about Fury though... I just don't care..

[JIBBBY]

Another capper worth considering http://mmabettingtips.com , I know it's paid but it's cheap. I know he's on Poirier for sure

I'm a member of that forum and I tried it for year.. Nice guys over there.. They're good with the European fighters mostly.. Nothing special though, they never talk props or o/u's either.. I stopped logging on..

I never paid the $10 bucks for picks so I can't comment on the winning percentages.. Based on the posts I read for over a year I didn't see anyone on fire or stand out over there...

[mirinquads]

Wasn't Luca Fury the most laughed at man on this forum at one time? Miri remembers..

The dude at one point couldn't win a bet if I remember correctly.. Lied and said he was winning when he really wasn't.. He was also in trouble the law or living with his mom if I'm not mistaken?

Yes He has 10 cats and lives in his mothers basement. Also 50 units is dogshit to be fair.

[JIBBBY]

Yes He has 10 cats and lives in his mothers basement. Also 50 units is dogshit to be fair.

There you go.. I guess I did remember a few details.. I recall Nunya ripping on him constantly and so did Punisher... Posted legal documents showing him to be late on child support or something? Lol.. Poor guy.

[BELM0NT]

Actually they do have prop bets. From the looks of it, they did ok. A lot of it you could of got here thou

http://mmabettingtips.com/prop-bets-ufc-on-fox-17-cerrone-dos-anjos/

[JIBBBY]

Actually they do have prop bets. From the looks of it, they did ok. A lot of it you could of got here thou

http://mmabettingtips.com/prop-bets-...one-dos-anjos/

Last year when I was posting I didn't see many prop bet posts anyways..

Funny that you mentioned that Belmont as I remember chatting with the main dude on that forum who charges for his picks and he stated he looks in on the SBR MMA section often. All good though if he gets his picks and ideas off some of our posts.. He's getting paid for it so I can't hate.. Wish he would post on the event threads here..

I like the guy as he's really cool... Nothing but love from Jibs..

[JIBBBY]

Arlovski said he didn't train or prepare properly for Frank Mir because he thought Frank Mir was an easy fight.

Is Arlovski being truthful, he didn't perform well because he didn't train hard enough for Frank mir.

Or is Arlovski's age catching up to him?

Arlovski better not sleep on Stipe or he will find himself asleep and on his back waking up in the UFC octagon with doctors standing over him asking him questions like, what day is it, do you know where you are, etc.?..

[agendaman]

along with JIBBY follow josh knows on the forum you will make money at no charge guys

[JIBBBY]

along with JIBBY follow josh knows on the forum you will make money at no charge guys

Don't tail me pal as I've been iffy this month and just surviving, tail Josh, Uncle Chael, Miri, Paper, and maybe even BJ Penn and Sanity.. Belmont has the 2 teamers nailed down as well lately. So if ya must tail anyone tail those guys as they have been riding much hotter then me lately... I'm just here to post on the fights and fighters, share ideas and have fun..

I'll be happy to pass the baton for now..

Fighters are getting better and more evenly matched in the UFC main cards and I'm having trouble picking clear winners lately.. That's why I've been leaning more on the props and O/U's lately.. Prelims and Early prelims are much easier to get a feel on and pick winners IMO.... Bellator and WSOF too..

[Sanity Check]

that has to be something made up somewhere. If it is true Arlovski is dumber than i originally thought.

I remember Arlovski telling Joe Rogan he underestimated Frank Mir and didn't train hard enough for the fight to put on the performance that he wanted. That was during the interview right after the fight where Rogan asks the winner questions.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

money coming in on Condit, dropped from +120 to +100. Will it flip all the way by fight time...

[bjpenn85]

Wasn't Luca Fury the most laughed at man on this forum at one time? Miri remembers..

The dude at one point couldn't win a bet if I remember correctly.. Lied and said he was winning when he really wasn't.. He was also in trouble with the law or living with his mom if I'm not mistaken? I could be wrong about Fury though... I just don't care..

Its not like i dont remember. He was def a lying bastad when he was around, and the old mmapodcast he had with Kalikas we weren't able to evaluate if he won money because they never disclosed how many units they put on any bet. They used im on this fighter "small, medium, or large", and then when they lost they suddenly said..oh i didnt bet that much so i was able to turn it around.

But that doesnt really matter now, because he wins money, and his breakdowns on his podcast is good. Since i consider myself equally as good as him its no point investing in his premium package, but i listen to his podcast frequently to gather info. At this point i can hear who he has picked as his premium package bets. He tries to hide it, so that the listeners want know, but hes only a human, i got him figured out.

[bjpenn85]

bastard

[JIBBBY]

7 first props are out now. I took a stab on not going the distance prop.

Heavy odds for this Diego/Ortega ITD prop. Still probably a good prop to play and more then likely will cash.. I'll throw it in a parlay myself.. If Diego doesn't get the early KO in this fight he'll gas out and get KO'd himself before the final bell..

1404 Fight won’t go 3 round distance

<input id="editx" name="M2_61" size="4"> -175

I'd say if any of you guys think Ortega will win this fight you should consider taking him ITD at +100 rather then the straight play at -230..

1405 Ortega wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_62" size="4"> +100

[JIBBBY]

money coming in on Condit, dropped from +120 to +100. Will it flip all the way by fight time...

Well like Josh mentioned in an earlier post Condit should probably be the favorite at -170..

I can't argue that.. The general gambling public also appears to be catching on to that with all the reads, vids and interviews already out.. Hense all the heavy betting going down on Condit which is moving the line..

I think it will move to -125 Condit by fight time if I had to guess... I remember seeing it at Condit +125 a week ago..

[JIBBBY]

A THINKING PROP POST - For the deep thinkers..

Since we were discussing the Carlos Condit/Lawler fight and since a bunch of us think Condit will win this by decision.. This is a closer look at the different decision props. Value vs decision prop is what I'm getting at with this post...

The normal Condit wins by decision prop is valued at +313

1007 Condit wins by 5 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +313

Now if all 3 judges have Condit winning on the score cards then this is the prop - Jumps from +313 to +420

1043 Condit wins by 5 rnd unanimous decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_20" size="4"> +420

Now if it's split majority decision - 2 judges have it scored for Condit and 1 judge has it for Lawler.. This is the prop for that - this prop caught my eye for value as it jumps from +313 to +1025..

1045 Condit wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec

<input id="editx" name="M1_21" size="4"> +1025

What do you guys think? I'm not so sure Robbie is going to get cleaned in just about every round anyways..

I don't do specific decision prop plays often but the way the judging has been scored lately in MMA these split/majority decisions do happen often in close fights and even in one sided fights.. Right? So at +1025 isn't it worth a shot?

Hedge for the robbery maybe with this?

1049 Lawler wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec

<input id="editx" name="M1_23" size="4"> +831

On a side note - I often wonder if one of the judges at times have a play on these props? I'm sure we all remember seeing a fight one sided then one judge scores it completely different which leaves us all wondering wtf was that one judge thinking and seeing?.. For example - Like 30-27, 30-27 and then 28-29.

Just saying..

[Sanity Check]

I think Condit might win in a pure stand up fight. But if Robbie Lawler wrestles Condit and does that thing where he puts his weight on people to control them and pounds away. Condit has always been a weak wrestler with no sprawl and Robbie might pull out an easy win that way.

This is Robbie's best chance to win. Doing what he did against Koscheck here @ 5:20.

[brooks85]

that might work for a bit but I'd say little chance lawler can actually hold condit down. Condit only has 2 decisions wins on his record and there is a reason for his last one vs diaz. Winning the fight had big implications so he fought on his bicycle. Now he is in another title match, can't imagine he is going to fight any different with the belt just one W away.

[Sanity Check]

Don't forget, Robbie was able to hold Johny Hendricks down and pound on him. And Hendricks is one of the best wrestlers in the division. There's no way Condit is as strong as Hendricks is in the clinch or in wrestling positions. If Condit ends up underneath Robbie and doesn't get the sub, he'll probably eat some bombs. Of course, Robbie has a lot of pride and a lot of confidence in his stand up. He might not wrestle Condit. It could be a pure kickboxing battle. Who can say what the gameplan will be.

[brooks85]

Don't forget, Robbie was able to hold Johny Hendricks down and pound on him. And Hendricks is one of the best wrestlers in the division. There's no way Condit is as strong as Hendricks is in the clinch or in wrestling positions. If Condit ends up underneath Robbie and doesn't get the sub, he'll probably eat some bombs. Of course, Robbie has a lot of pride and a lot of confidence in his stand up. He might not wrestle Condit. It could be a pure kickboxing battle. Who can say what the gameplan will be.

hmm when was this?

I had to double check ufc.com, don't have time to watch 50mins of a fight but stats also say lawler landed no tds.

[Sanity Check]

I think it was the end of the 3rd of 4th round in Lawler vs Hendricks 2.

Hendricks was saved by the bell. If not for the bell, I think Lawler would've finished him.

[bjpenn85]

I think it was the end of the 3rd of 4th round in Lawler vs Hendricks 2.

Hendricks was saved by the bell. If not for the bell, I think Lawler would've finished him.

Hmm..interesting note. Hendricks guard and condits guard, well thats a significant large gap in skill level. its a turtle vs a submission wizard. Condit takes very little damage in guard, close to nothing? But the judges scorecards wont look to good. So its def a not an ideal situation if condits gets stucks underneath for longer periods of time.

[kmdubya]

Don't forget, Robbie was able to hold Johny Hendricks down and pound on him.

In fairness, Hendricks is one of the best wrestlers in rounds 1 and 2. Anything beyond that and he's usually gassed.

[JIBBBY]

^^^Fight stays standing fellas.. Only reason Lawler went to the ground with Kos and Johnny Hendricks is because they were wrestlers and trying for the take down themselves or clinching up and Ruthless Robbie turned the tables on them.. He didn't initiate those take downs as I remember.

Robbie is a brawler at heart and prefers to keep the fight standing much like Dan Henderson does.. He's not gonna punk out standing with Condit and try to win this fight on the ground.. If he was ever thinking ground in fights he would have tried that with Rory Mac in his last fight when he was beat up at times standing.. He didn't...

You guys are reaching.. Lawler is gonna fight like he always does and try to knock Condit out standing.. Carlos Condit himself will try to do the same...

[BELM0NT]

Gastelum out, that sucks

http://mmajunkie.com/2015/12/kelvin-gastelum-injured-alex-morono-in-against-kyle-noke-at-ufc-195

[brooks85]

I think it was the end of the 3rd of 4th round in Lawler vs Hendricks 2.

Hendricks was saved by the bell. If not for the bell, I think Lawler would've finished him.

no, that didn't happen from what I just saw. Lawler was literally moments from finishing hendricks at the end of the 4th and 5th(more so) but not from his takedowns. He stuffed hendricks both times and started pounding him. Watching it it again forgot how intense that was! lol rogan just said intense too as I was typing this.

[mirinquads]

Lawler isn't taking Condit down, but if it somehow get's on the ground, expecting Condit to sub Lawler is pretty much a pipe dream.. He survived several times beneath a roided up Jacare, who's in a different stratosphere as a grappler than Condit. Even got up a couple of times.

[bjpenn85]

Lawler isn't taking Condit down, but if it somehow get's on the ground, expecting Condit to sub Lawler is pretty much a pipe dream.. He survived several times beneath a roided up Jacare, who's in a different stratosphere as a grappler than Condit. Even got up a couple of times.

Darn good point Miri!

[bjpenn85]

^^^Fight stays standing fellas.. Only reason Lawler went to the ground with Kos and Johnny Hendricks is because they were wrestlers and trying for the take down themselves or clinching up and Ruthless Robbie turned the tables on them.. He didn't initiate those take downs as I remember.

Robbie is a brawler at heart and prefers to keep the fight standing much like Dan Henderson does.. He's not gonna punk out standing with Condit and try to win this fight on the ground.. If he was ever thinking ground in fights he would have tried that with Rory Mac in his last fight when he was beat up at times standing.. He didn't...

You guys are reaching.. Lawler is gonna fight like he always does and try to knock Condit out standing.. Carlos Condit himself will try to do the same...

True MMAfighting!!

[mirinquads]

Those elbows were penetrating sweet indeed.. Dayum.. Put poor Alves nose on the back of his head

[yisman]

12/23/15 04:41:47pm Pacific

Boxing: Game 24009-24010 (ORN# 24009-24010)

A. Morono replaces K. Gastelum after injury forced him out of the match.

[JIBBBY]

KO props in the AA/Stipe fight - This fight most likely ends in a KO.. Can't see either of these guys winning by submission...

Sat 1/2

1129 Arlovski wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_43" size="4"> +410

Sat 1/2

1133 Miocic wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_45" size="4"> +135

Outside chance it goes to decision.. Doubt it though...

1103 Arlovski / Miocic goes 3 round distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_30" size="4"> +135