MMA_Oracle: Plays, Discussions, Bets

[JIBBBY]

Good hit with the Texiera by sub win MMA oracle..

I saw that early on in the week and wanted to hedge but I didn't... At +422 that was the most likely way Glover Tex was gonna win this fight... OSP simply didn't have Jits or wrestling to ward off Glovers submission attempts if the fight hit the ground.. So it played out that way...

[MMA_Oracle]

Good hit with the Texiera by sub win MMA oracle..

I saw that early on in the week and wanted to hedge but I didn't... At +422 that was the most likely way Glover Tex was gonna win this fight... OSP simply didn't have Jits or wrestling to ward off Glovers submission attempts if the fight hit the ground.. So it played out that way...

Thank you, it means a lot. Glover said that he wanted to take OSP down and submit him. At those odds, why not put something on it, right? My reasoning going into the fight is that OSP's strength and athleticism can win him a lot of fights against mid tier fighters and even against top fighters that are a bad match up. But against someone as well rounded and refined as Glover, he would need to have an amazing performance in order to win. Obviously he hurt Glover early but Glover is a tough SOB. I was really curious as to why Glover turned out to be the underdog. I hope you made out well yesterday and didn't get screwed by the Mj/Dariush decision. For the record, Dariush won me over as a fan for his post fight interview

[siefer]

Jibby actually had money on dariush, haha, so he was definitely smiling after that decision was called out

[MMA_Oracle]

Jibby actually had money on dariush, haha, so he was definitely smiling after that decision was called out

The fight played out exactly as I thought it would, except for the decision of course. IDK if you guys think Castillo got robbed two weeks ago but I'm still a bit sour at that robbery too

[mirinquads]

The fight played out exactly as I thought it would, except for the decision of course. IDK if you guys think Castillo got robbed two weeks ago but I'm still a bit sour at that robbery too

No robbery in that fight, and I was on Castillo. Saunders over Robertson was way more of a robbery that night.

[MMA_Oracle]

No robbery in that fight, and I was on Castillo. Saunders over Robertson was way more of a robbery that night.

I'm sorry I had a brain fart, I meant Nijem-Holbrook. Miller definitely beat Castillo

[fitguy67]

^^that was the night of the 2 hosings...Nijem and Holbrook both "strong" on the "wrong-ometer"...

i was on both of'em...and Castillo, which could have "gone either way"...in the way that only "9 flips of a 10-9 coin" can

next event ONLY one hosing (BD/MJ), but its a cat-5, meaning in the Sanchez-Pearson ballpark of injustice

[MMA_Oracle]

Sorry for the absence, I didn't like too any plays last event and decided but take the event off except for two small bets. The only bets I made were on Magny by Dec (win ) and Cote by Dec (loss ). With that being said...


Leans prior to the weigh ins (no bets yet):

Dodson by TKO +600
Mir by TKO +265
Anderson +120
Lineker -135

[UncleChael]

Why Anderson? Dude got his teeth punched in last fight and couldn't check a leg kick to save his life.
Lineker? Moving up in weight, the dude already sucks, fighting a much taller/bigger better fighter in Rivera.
Mir? I watched JDS vs. Mir, that was enough.

[MMA_Oracle]

Very slight lean on Anderson because I think he can make it a gritty fight. I might change my mind based on weigh ins. Rivera gets rocked by much lesser fighters than Lineker. Mir play is only based on odds. Are you telling me that Mir has less than a ~27% of knocking Arlovski out?

[UncleChael]

It's his only chance? Based on odds Arlovski wins 3/4 times? Probably.

[MMA_Oracle]

It's his only chance? Based on odds Arlovski wins 3/4 times? Probably.

I can't agree that Arlovski wins the fight that often. He's shown that he's very capable of being knocked out and his defense is sloppy at times. But I take it you're making a big bet on Arlovski? if you think Arlovski wins the fight 75% of the time, then you think the odds should be -300 in his favor, which is a steal considering his odds are currently -150.

[JIBBBY]

Leans prior to the weigh ins (no bets yet):

Dodson by TKO +600
Mir by TKO +265
Anderson +120
Lineker -135

I like your plays Oracle and on these as well if you do place them....

I'm not on Cory Anderson but he has a chance..

[MMA_Oracle]

I like your plays Oracle and on these as well if you do place them....

I'm not on Cory Anderson but he has a chance..

Sounds good, bro ah now I have to go back and re-watch/reconsider that fight. Thanks for the input

[MMA_Oracle]

UFC 191 Finalized Picks: I've switched sides on a couple of my initial leans; explanations in red

Dodson wins in Round 1 (+1400) + Round 2 (+1700) Risk: 0.25u each
Original lean was just to take Dodson by TKO but these props pay much better and I feel like if Dodson were to knock MM out, it wouldnt happen outside of the first two rounds

Mir by TKO (+270) Risk: 2u
I think these odds are ridiculous. Arlovski can definitely be knocked out if Mir lands a counter. Do I favor Arlovski? Sure. But the odds are too good to pass up

Vanzant by TKO (+150) Risk: 1u
Admittedly, probably the "squarest" bet I have tonight. I think the UFC is feeding Chambers to 12-gauge to make her look more impressive to build up her name to Ronda status

Rivera (+115) Risk: 2u
OK so the odds and the size difference seen at weigh-ins made me do a 180 on this fight. Add that to the fact that he tends to slow down and I think Rivera is a good bet at the current odds

Pennington (+175) Risk: 0.5u

Parlay: Rumble + Felder + Barnett (UFC FIGHT NIGHT 75). Odds = ~(+100) Risk: 2u
LOL why not. Rumble and Felder should win convincingly tonight. I'll be able to nicely hedge on the last leg if need be

[JIBBBY]

I'll try your Vanzant by KO prop at +150.. I just hit it for 50 bucks myself.. It's about the only play worth trying in that fight besides maybe the under 2.5 at -140.. She's a striker first so the KO prop seems like the most logical play... She's a -1500 favorite for a reason..

<small>UFC 191 - Strawweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/5		1401 Alex Chambers		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +1000	<input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ +120
10:00PM		1402 Paige VanZant		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -1500	<input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ -140

You could be on to something about her hype build.. I normally don't like betting on the small girls to KO or finish but this one just might stick..

GL

[MMA_Oracle]

Added Play:

Cory Anderson (+100) Risk: 2u

[MMA_Oracle]

I'll try your Vanzant by KO prop at +150.. I just hit it for 50 bucks myself.. It's about the only play worth trying in that fight besides maybe the under 2.5 at -140.. She's a striker first so the KO prop seems like the most logical play... She's a -1500 favorite for a reason..

<small>UFC 191 - Strawweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
Sat 9/5		1401 Alex Chambers		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +1000	<input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ +120
10:00PM		1402 Paige VanZant		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -1500	<input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ -140

You could be on to something about her hype build.. I normally don't like betting on the small girls to KO or finish but this one just might stick..

GL

Good luck!

[MMA_Oracle]

Shame on you guys for trying to get me off of a bet on Anderson! thankfully i was still confident after my review

[UncleChael]

Shame on you guys for trying to get me off of a bet on Anderson! thankfully i was still confident after my review

Anderson lives to fight another day.