Jibby, I believe that is well said, except for the blind loyalty for or against certain forums. It's neither all good nor all bad here or anywhere else. I put more credence in the individual posters and their contributions to decide for myself who I think is a good handicapper and who seems to be a good bettor.
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The topic for conversation from MD's original post was - do forum generic post fighter breakdowns help, and are they useful or not?? For some maybe they are but for me personally not so much..
Miri and Crassus - Why would I put much merit into other fan post fighter breakdowns if I already capped the fights thoroughly myself, watched vids, compared fighter style match ups, compared trends, read all the main stream articles, etc? I have enough confidence in my own MMA capping abilities come fight time then most other fans posting on other forums like Sherdog or on this one... That's not my being arrogant but being honest... So do I put much merit into the basic fighter breakdown posts most of the time no...
On this forum I do put alot of merit into gambling strategies, value betting, prop angles, O/U round bets, etc.. as some of you guys post some real gems that make perfect sense...
That's fair to say right???Comment -
Difference between confidence and blindness hoss. You shouldn't just discount it, give it a fair bit of thought. If after as unbiased an analysis as you can personally do (this goes for anybody not a personal thing on you) you still have the same opinion, no harm no foul. Discounting as a general rule isn't particularly effective though, from my perspective at least.
Take into account any point you hear, some are easier than others to discount quickly but shit, even the national enquirer breaks legitimate stories sometimes; you can never be sure.Comment -
Seeing your analysis a lot of the time Jibbers, maybe you shouldnt have that kind of confidence. But even if the post point out some things you haven't taken into account, seems you'd still not give a shiet and bet the side you 'think is gonna win' right?Comment -
This card takes place on a Sunday, Prelims will run same time as Colts vs Patriots this arena might be a ghost town in Boston. If New England wins maybe they'll get a crazy crowd coming in for the mainComment -
[QUOTE=JIBBBY;23384277....
So I personally don't put much merit into other posters fighter breakdowns unless it is in line with what I think will happen.....[/QUOTE]
Last edited by Educ8d Degener8; 01-12-15, 11:03 PM. Reason: image won't post correctly, but you get the pointComment -
prolly value on McGRegor. Siver is the ideal opponent for Conor. A guy with just enough of a name, not that good, old, stationary, a candidate for someone to claim "underrated ground game".
Happy Birthday Dennis SIver!Comment -
^^^^Educ8d I wish you would post more!!!!... You are the MMA tourney king of this forum... An impressive feat that you tackled...
Step out of the shadows champ and lay down some opinions and more winning picks, you won't get jinxed don't worry......
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Combat Press came out with their discussion/prediction write up on this event if anyone wants to check and read...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-14-15, 01:55 AM.Comment -
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Siver wins by spinning back kick KO.Comment -
McGregor wins by decision +1157...
I highly doubt that will happen in a 5 rounder but those odds are massive... Siver is a tough guy and has gone late in fights with some great strikers though.. Those all being 3 rounders and not 5.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Siver-9817
Siver did get blasted in round one against Melvin Guilard but that was years ago. Hmmmm?
Prop 1025 - McGregor wins in round 1 at -135 might be the call.. The Under 1 1/2 rounds is -190, that is a little bit safer play but probably not worth the extra -60 you gotta give up.. With the under 1 1/2 round bet you do have a chance with both fighters though..
2nd and 3rd round finishes have decent value as well just in case....
Sun 1/18 1027 McGregor wins in round 2 <input id="radiox" value="M1_12" name="radiox" type="radio">+400 Sun 1/18 1029 McGregor wins in round 3 <input id="radiox" value="M1_13" name="radiox" type="radio">+800
Just looking over the props now.. Trying to figure out what are the best plays for this fight...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-14-15, 01:38 AM.Comment -
Jibby, for the McGregor/Siver fight I took Fight doesn't start round 2 at -123 as it is a slightly better prop than McGregor wins in round 1 for a better price at the time I bet it. I also bet the under 1½ at -170. Hopefully with a first round stoppage by Conor, both cash. Also, as far as a long shot prop, I like McGregor by submission at +1215 rather than McGregor by decision at near that price. Siver doesn't have much neck, but I can see Conor knocking him down with strikes maybe and then jumping on his back Cowboy Cerrone style to lock in a quick RNC.
Also- today I learned that I share a birthday with Dennis Siver.Comment -
Happy B-Day Jimster!!!!!
Good prop thoughts too....Comment -
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Cerrone will become the 11th fighter in history to compete in two UFC bouts in 30 days or fewer (outside of one-night tournaments). Previous fighters to accomplish the feat went 4-6 in the second contest.Comment -
Here's hoping, I'm watching the stubhub prices like a hawk.Comment -
For what it's worth, sounds like Siver is going to "fight" like a total pussy and look to grapple. I hate when these striking-based fighters look exclusively to grapple. Since Siver went to 145, he's been a total pussy. Has he not grappled or tried to grapple with any of his recent opponents?Comment -
Diego tweets that Conor was fumbling around words when he appeared on espn.
Anyone got a link?Comment -
Going over the Cowboy/Bendo props now.. A few props to consider for value me tinks.. Thought to post as I go along..
If you're pulling for cowboy these props might stand out -
Sun 1/18 1105 Cerrone wins inside distance <input id="radiox" value="M1_36" name="radiox" type="radio">+390 Sun 1/18 1127 Cerrone wins by submission <input id="radiox" value="M1_47" name="radiox" type="radio">+680 Sun 1/18 1129 Cerrone wins by TKO/KO <input id="radiox" value="M1_48" name="radiox" type="radio">+650 Sun 1/18 1115 Cerrone wins in round 1 <input id="radiox" value="M1_41" name="radiox" type="radio">+725
Pulling for Bendo this stands out -
Sun 1/18 1111 Henderson wins by 3 round decision <input id="radiox" value="M1_39" name="radiox" type="radio">+160
Playing the field and not sure who will win then these might be worth a stab in a parlay play -
Sun 1/18 1143 Cerrone / Henderson starts round 3 <input id="radiox" value="M1_51" name="radiox" type="radio">-255 11:00PM 1144 Fight won't start round 3 <input id="radiox" value="M2_51" name="radiox" type="radio">+195
Sun 1/18 1101 Donald Cerrone <input id="radiox" value="M1_1" name="radiox" type="radio">+115 <input id="radiox" value="L1_1" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -225
11:00PM 1102 Benson Henderson <input id="radiox" value="M2_1" name="radiox" type="radio">-135 <input id="radiox" value="L2_1" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +175 Comment -
Sports Interaction is offering Benson Henderson by TKO/KO/DQ at 13.0/+1200 . I really doubt he has it in him to pull it off.. but these odds are too tempting to pass up on I feel. Hes already 2-0 in this match-up and should be desperate for a finish. Mind you if this odd wasn't over +1000 there's no way I'd even be thinking about it.Comment -
I saw that, more likely Bendo gets the sub at +655 rather then the KO if he can stop Cowboy ITD... Cowboy has the solid chin and Bendo has never been known for a guy that hits like a truck...... I can't remember the last time I saw Bendo get a KO win???
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That's because you didnt watch WEC noobComment -
Didnt he KO Shane Roller?Comment -
Going with Smooth over Cowboy.Comment -
yeah you really got him there, a fight nearly 6 years ago... lolComment -
Brooks and JIBBBY, sitting in a tree, f-u-c-k-i-n-g.Comment -
rooster riding MD to the rescue haha, like a broken record. I knew you'd show up too. Lord you're pathetic.Comment
