Shotgun MMA Betting

[ShotgunRua]

Seems we have largely the same plays with the exception of varner/guillard, should be a good night.

Yeah hope so bud. I think we're up against gabe and md with a couple of plays, doesn't bode well ha ha.

[MD]

Yeah hope so bud. I think we're up against gabe and md with a couple of plays, doesn't bode well ha ha.

Nah, don't worry about it, Gabe and I are square, we just tail Sanford.

[Vaughany]

yeah pretty crazy group of guys that Mitrione has been shark-tanking with at Blackzilians!...Spong, Ubereem, Rashad, Thiago Silva, & Belfort

[ShotgunRua]

I'm actually really looking forward to this fight now.

Speaking of Belfort, how do you guys see him matching up with Bisping? I don't think i've ever been so back and forth about an upcoming fight.

A lot of people see another h bomb scenario, but vitor has slowed down a lot. I'm currently leaning bisping by decision.

[ShotgunRua]

Finalised plays for tonight;

Mitrione/Nelson Over 1.5 rounds (Paddy) 3 to win 1.7
Dustin Poirier (-248 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1
Roy Nelson & Shane Del Rosario (Double) 2 to win 2.54
Jamie Varner (-103 Pinnace) 2 to win 1.94
James Head (+181 Pinnacle) 2 to win 3.6
Tim Elliott (-162 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 0.9
Khabilov + Nelson/Mitrione over 1.5 (Double) 1.5 for 1.8


I took Varner at the wrong time, nevermind.

Good luck all!

[ShotgunRua]

So much value in that Mitrione/Nelson over 1.5 line...... Especially after the arguments from MD and Gabe.

It's taking a lot of restraint to not pound more, tempted to go 5 units.

[ShotgunRua]

Ok this is the last play

Khabilov + Nelson/Mitrione over 1.5 (Double) 1.5 for 1.8

[Sacrelicious]

How'd you do man? You had mentioned you bet Nelson straight without the over prop, hopefully that cashed for you and balanced out the parlay losses.

[ShotgunRua]

Terrible night in isolation, but it's a marathon not a sprint. I'm up 7.5 units over 3 events, pretty happy with that given this is my first attempt to properly build a bankroll.

Mitrione/Nelson Over 1.5 rounds (Paddy) 3 to win 1.7 LOSER
Dustin Poirier (-248 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1 WINNER
Roy Nelson & Shane Del Rosario (Double) 2 to win 2.54 LOSER
Jamie Varner (-103 Pinnace) 2 to win 1.94 VOID
James Head (+181 Pinnacle) 2 to win 3.6 LOSER
Tim Elliott (-162 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 0.9 WINNER
Khabilov + Nelson/Mitrione over 1.5 (Double) 1.5 for 1.8 LOSER

Event totals;
2 - 4
-6.6 Units

YTD
13 - 8
+7.46 Units!!!


I'm a bit annoyed with myself, when I first started thinking about Nelson/Mitrione and how they match up, my first thought was Nelson by KO early. After discussing this at length with others earlier in the thread and reading up on Mitrione's training/gameplanning I became convinced he could hang with Nelson for longer than I originally anticipated.

I set my bet amounts between 0.5 and 5 units based on confidence and perceived value, whatever possessed me to go bigger on Mitrione lasting to the middle of the 2nd than I'd gone on Benson Henderson I'll never know.

Should have stuck to my gut feeling and pounded Nelson, but hey ho, great learning experience. Working on some solid plays for the next card, can't wait!!!

Sacrelicious, respect for sticking to your guns on Nelson- congrats for a good night mate.

[MD]

I'm a bit annoyed with myself, when I first started thinking about Nelson/Mitrione and how they match up, my first thought was Nelson by KO early. After discussing this at length with others earlier in the thread and reading up on Mitrione's training/gameplanning I became convinced he could hang with Nelson for longer than I originally anticipated.

I set my bet amounts between 0.5 and 5 units based on confidence and perceived value, whatever possessed me to go bigger on Mitrione lasting to the middle of the 2nd than I'd gone on Benson Henderson I'll never know.

Should have stuck to my gut feeling and pounded Nelson, but hey ho, great learning experience. Working on some solid plays for the next card, can't wait!!!

Sacrelicious, respect for sticking to your guns on Nelson- congrats for a good night mate.

What you have to understand is that just because a bet loses, doesn't make it the incorrect play. Mitrione has an outstanding chin, never even been rocked, and a massive reach edge, with unpredictable improvements and a huge edge in strength, speed, athleticism and probably technical striking ability also. As we saw with Del Rosario/Barry, however, heavyweight fights have a lot of variance, and the correct side can lose quite often. How many times out of ten do you believe that Bigfoot beats Travis Browne?

It's unfortunate that your bet didn't cash, but if the result were repeated ten times, I'd expect you to finish in the positive. Imagine if Ben Henderson had gotten caught by that Nate Diaz toe hold last week. We'd all feel like losers, but it happens, especially in MMA.

[ShotgunRua]

What you have to understand is that just because a bet loses, doesn't make it the incorrect play. Mitrione has an outstanding chin, never even been rocked, and a massive reach edge, with unpredictable improvements and a huge edge in strength, speed, athleticism and probably technical striking ability also. As we saw with Del Rosario/Barry, however, heavyweight fights have a lot of variance, and the correct side can lose quite often. How many times out of ten do you believe that Bigfoot beats Travis Browne?

It's unfortunate that your bet didn't cash, but if the result were repeated ten times, I'd expect you to finish in the positive. Imagine if Ben Henderson had gotten caught by that Nate Diaz toe hold last week. We'd all feel like losers, but it happens, especially in MMA.

Could not agree more, and funnily enough I often use the Browne/Bigfoot example when discussing this. I agree, if Nate Diaz had caught Benson, then you are absolutely right that Benson still would have been the intelligent play. Anything can happen in this sport.

In this particular instance, I no longer feel this was the right play. I feel if we watched the same fight 1000 times, Nelson would finish Mitrione under 1.5 in maybe half of them. Since my odds were not reflective of this, I no longer feel it had value. I'm completely happy with my play on Head for example, he lost, but I feel there was value and I have no regrets.

Thanks though for the input, this is a concept few understand.

[gabe]

Sharps have losing nights, too. Tonight, sharps got buried by the over, by Mitrione, and by Head.

If Colton Smith + O2.5 didn't hit, my night would be twice as bad.

[v1y]

you idiots convinced me out of my ITD bet. how the penetrate did i get convinced two hard hitting HW's couldn't put each other away in 25 mins.

[Vaughany]

lol

[Sacrelicious]

you idiots convinced me out of my ITD bet. how the penetrate did i get convinced two hard hitting HW's couldn't put each other away in 25 mins.

Dunno.

[ShotgunRua]

Despite just being burned on a heavyweight over bet, I'm looking at JDS/Cain Over 1.5- 1 unit to win 1.63. Going to give this more though before jumping in... Just wondering if Cain may have some success early with his wrestling this time and maybe stall the fight for a while. I'll be playing JDS by KO no doubt.

[gabe]

Despite just being burned on a heavyweight over bet, I'm looking at JDS/Cain Over 1.5- 1 unit to win 1.63. Going to give this more though before jumping in... Just wondering if Cain may have some success early with his wrestling this time and maybe stall the fight for a while. I'll be playing JDS by KO no doubt.

if he has success early on, chances are he will have success throughout...

[MD]

If Cain has success with his wrestling, the fight is as good as over. Cain will get stronger as the fight goes on, and JDS will get weaker. If, when JDS is at his best, Cain can still control him, JDS isn't going to be making a comeback.

If JDS KO's Cain, it's almost certainly going to be in the first two rounds.

[DeFactoCrippler]

hey shotgun, im quite knowledgeable about boxing and i can tell by the way that kid hold his hands he might be a twink.

the toddler too

[ShotgunRua]

Very short on time so may not get chance to log back on before the fights, I have the following;

JDS- 3 units
JDS round 1- 0.5 units
Miller- 1.5 units
Miller/Lauzon Over 2.5- 2 units
Belcher- 2.5 units
Leben- 3 units

Hoping to add odds and bet values etc later, just wanted to make sure I had my plays logged before the fights.

[jakejd82]

Very short on time so may not get chance to log back on before the fights, I have the following;

JDS- 3 units
JDS round 1- 0.5 units
Miller- 1.5 units
Miller/Lauzon Over 2.5- 2 units
Belcher- 2.5 units
Leben- 3 units

Hoping to add odds and bet values etc later, just wanted to make sure I had my plays logged before the fights.

Nice Picks ! Really like Leben, Belcher and Jim Miller. Trying to talk myself out of taking Anything in the main event as I think Dos Santos will win but not sure about laying that much. I also like Guillard and Pickett, this card is really fun considering the amount of near pick ems on it.

Whatever happens, Good Luck and Cheers

[ShotgunRua]

Nice Picks ! Really like Leben, Belcher and Jim Miller. Trying to talk myself out of taking Anything in the main event as I think Dos Santos will win but not sure about laying that much. I also like Guillard and Pickett, this card is really fun considering the amount of near pick ems on it.

Whatever happens, Good Luck and Cheers

Thanks Jake, you too.

[ShotgunRua]

Finalised bets for tonight;

Junior Dos Santos- (-136 Paddy Power) 3 to win 2.18
Junior Do Santos in round 1- (+175 Bet365) 0.5 to win 1.07
Alan Belcher- (+110 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 2.83
Jim Miller- (-210 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 0.7
Miller/Lauzon over 2.5- (+100 Bet365) 2 to win 2
Chris Leben- (-167 Pinnacle) 3 to win 1.8
Parlay- JDS by KO+Chris Leben+Miller/Lauzon goes distance (Paddy, treble) 0.5 to win 3.28


I've deliberated a lot over the above and have carefully narrowed the selections down to those I feel completely confident in. I've had a bad habit of making plays just so I have action on all or most fights, even if I wasn't fully up to speed on both fighters. I learned my lesson the hard way last event and I'm hoping to bounce back with these bets.

I am picking Varner over Guillard, I feel confident about this and placed a bet on Varner last time. I've decided not to play this selection, Guillard could conceivably knock Varner out in the first 30 seconds. There are just too many possibilities, I feel both the winner, and under/over are completely 50/50.

My initial thought was that Wineland would outwork Pickett and use his range to dominate. I've been rewatching some fights and I actually favour Pickett slightly now, I have a feeling he will power through and do some damage, however the fact Wineland has never been KO'd is making me cautious. Just going to leave this one as well.

I LOVE Leben against Brunson, Leben will be able to take anything Brunson will throw at him, and he will find Brunson's questionable chin. Leben by early KO, I think it will be slightly comical.

JDS will destroy Cain for the second time in a year. This fight should never have been set up, a guy who's biggest win is either Brock Lesnar, washed up Big Nog, or Bigfoot... Against JDS, please. After this Cain will be matched up with someone like Struve or Nelson and JDS will finish clearing out the division when he takes out the Reem.

I like Miller to control Lauzon for 3 rounds and win a clear decision. Lauzon only tends to finish by sub, and despite being caught by Diaz, Miller had great sub defense. This fight has decision written all over it.

[Sacrelicious]

Good luck man, we're on the same plays more or less.

Only difference is I'm not on Leben, and I'm on Boetsch, I also didnt prop bet.

We should both have a great night, good luck.

[ShotgunRua]

Good luck man, we're on the same plays more or less.

Only difference is I'm not on Leben, and I'm on Boetsch, I also didnt prop bet.

We should both have a great night, good luck.

Cheers mate let's hope so!

I watched a lot of Brunson when I was deciding on plays for a strikeforce event a few months ago, I'm absolutely convinced Leben will destroy him.

I steered clear of the Boetsch fight due to the unpredictability of Boetsch fights in general, but if I was forced to pick I'd play Philippou. I feel he has a sight advantage in most areas, Boetsch just seems to end up winning fights he shouldn't. How do you see it playing out?

[Sacrelicious]

Boetsch will make it as dirty a fight as possible and grind out a victory. Costa has the big edge on the feet but Boetsch can take a punch, he has shown that many times. He will grind out win, I dont see it being a very entertaining fight to watch.

[Sacrelicious]

I have about three times on JDS as much as the others, and quite a bit on Belcher as well. Even if Boetsch doesnt deliver the other two will cover my losses.

[ShotgunRua]

I have about three times on JDS as much as the others, and quite a bit on Belcher as well. Even if Boetsch doesnt deliver the other two will cover my losses.

Yeah, I'd say you're covered with that much on JDS. Can't wait for that fight!

[ShotgunRua]

Junior Dos Santos- (-136 Paddy Power) 3 to win 2.18 LOSER
Junior DoS Santos in round 1- (+175 Bet365) 0.5 to win 1.07 LOSER
Alan Belcher- (+110 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 2.83 LOSER
Jim Miller- (-210 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 0.7 WINNER
Miller/Lauzon over 2.5- (+100 Bet365) 2 to win 2 WINNER
Chris Leben- (-167 Pinnacle) 3 to win 1.8 LOSER
Parlay- JDS by KO+Chris Leben+Miller/Lauzon goes distance (Paddy, treble) 0.5 to win 3.28 LOSER

2 - 5 For event
-7 Units

15 - 13 YTD
+ 0.46 Units


Bad night, 2nd in a row.

So, I've had this thread for 4 UFC events and I'm literally back where I started. 2 very good events, followed by 2 appalling ones. I got nearly everything wrong here. Props to MD, Cain Velasquez is clearly a better mixed martial artist than JDS. I said before that he'd never defeated a top opponent, well now he has and he deserves respect. If these 2 guys rematch I will not be betting, I honestly feel it's JDS by KO early or Cain by prolonged domination, I commented in another thread that I think JDS gets the KO 90% of the time and Cain dominates the fight the other 10%.... I now feel there's a fairly similar chance of either, with an edge to Cain.

Leben........ I got that matchup completely wrong, and went huge because I felt there was major value. I figured the odds were simply reflective of Leben's layoff and under normal circumstances he would be a heavier favourite.

If I'd played Varner as I had for the last event it wouldn't have been as bad, but it was hardly safe given the outcome.


I'm currently deciding what to do moving forward. I used to be the biggest MMA fan ever, I would get so excited for the events and be completely entertained regardless of the outcomes, I've never been one for rooting for a particular fighter and being overly happy or disappointed with a result. When I start a project I want it to succeed, and since starting this thread I'm not enjoying the fights as much as I used to.

I'm not gambling with a huge bankroll as I'm fairly secure financially and want to stay that way, so I'll only continue playing if it's adding to the experience and not detracting from it. As I'm back to square one it's a pretty good time to evaluate and make a decision, there are some very interesting fights coming up.....

[Sacrelicious]

To repeat what I've said several times, I knew when I saw JDS walking down to the ring that something was up. You could see it in his eyes, the guy was tense, he looked terrified.

I took my old man out to the bar, who does not follow MMA, and he said watching JDS enter that he looked afraid, he called it, I overthought it.

Might be better putting off some big bets till fight night and do them live I suspect.

Pettis and Glover should cash, I'm almost leaning towards Vitor as well, call me crazy.

Good luck man, we will rebuild

[ShotgunRua]

To repeat what I've said several times, I knew when I saw JDS walking down to the ring that something was up. You could see it in his eyes, the guy was tense, he looked terrified.

I took my old man out to the bar, who does not follow MMA, and he said watching JDS enter that he looked afraid, he called it, I overthought it.

Might be better putting off some big bets till fight night and do them live I suspect.

Pettis and Glover should cash, I'm almost leaning towards Vitor as well, call me crazy.

Good luck man, we will rebuild

I think if I carry on I will be keeping my bets closer together in size and passing on heavy favourites unless there's a nice prop (GSP by decision for example). Had I been sensible with Leben and played JDS KO small my night wouldn't have been such a disaster. Since that was JDS only real path to victory it makes sense as a bet in hindsight.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Dude you're barely .500 on this thread....give it a rest already @sshole.

[MD]

...

[Sacrelicious]

The moronic infancy of the noob sacrelicious is in full display here...

[Grabaka]

The moronic infancy of the noob sacrelicious is in full display here...

Where you been cabron? Cook us something nice amigo