Bitcoin Price Tracking & Discussion -- 2025

[raiders72001]

Already posted in Players Talk but Trump will fire Gensler day 1 and replace him with an ex-Robinhood employee. The way the polls and betting look, I'm getting pumped about crypto again. Meme coins are hitting now.

[raiders72001]

What do you think about Sui? It seems like a good option, but I saw that there are a lot of emissions yet to come.

SUI is great. USDC now on SUI. SOL not happy since SUI is a major threat.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not sure that posted well:

*Heritage is giving a generous Free Play to bettors who deposited with Bitcoin. The Free Play this month = 9.7% of your average daily balance, based on the price movement of BTC.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1/1/25 ????????????????

Raiders, shout-out to Heritage sportsbook. Heritage is using a nice promotion for Bitcoin deposits:

The value of Bitcoin went up 9.7% this month.If you are a Bitcoin Depositor then 9.7% of your average daily balance is in your account in the form of a Free Play.Just another reason Heritage Sports is the best value for a sportsbook on the planet.

You think they want your Bitcoin??

[Lex_icon]

$89,725

What do you think about Sui? It seems like a good option, but I saw that there are a lot of emissions yet to come.

[raiders72001]

$89,725

[Optional]

1/1/25 ????????????????

83,176

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1/1/25 ????????????????

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/3720724-jon-cursi-bitcoin-videos.html

In above link (post 26), I posted a projection of $43k to $94k. And that's from 3/18/2023 projecting to 3/18/2025.

[raiders72001]

Jan 1st 2019 = $3,738.11

Jan 2nd 2020 = $7,154.33

Jan 1st 2021 = $29,600

Jan 1st 2022 = $47,686

Jan 1st 2023 = $16,625

Jan 1st 2024 = $42,648

1/1/25 ????????????????

[ttwarrior1]

will explode if trump wins. Im selling it all if kamala wins

[raiders72001]

Agree with you guys. We all got excited when it looked as though the parabolic bull run was going to start and it was just a head fake.

[ninjagorn]

[QUOTE=Arky;31347505]Has to be one of the most boring periods ever. Even during a bear market when things are cheap, there's more action.

I am also bored to death-not even doing the daily swing trades...

[Arky]

Has to be one of the most boring periods ever. Even during a bear market when things are cheap, there's more action.

Hopefully, things pick up in October. A bunch of people are predicting November to be chaotic due to the election. Some still predict 100K by end of year. Forecasts for crypto in early to mid 2025 are all over the place.

[raiders72001]

Raider, I saw the interviews from Trump/RFK. I really that Trump was smart enough to change his stance. He's trying to get the Bitcoiner vote. Whether he's honest about policy? RFK called him out from changing stance from an earlier time period.

Stock-piling BTC has to be a smart strategy. US states (like WISC) are doing it.

It doesn't really seem as though the president has much power on the direction of bitcoin. Congress will determine that and it seems as though there will continue to be a split. Here's a bill proposed by Cynthia Lummis (R).

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Following her announcement of a historic proposal to supercharge the U.S. dollar and pay down the national debt by establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, today U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) officially introduced the Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act in the U.S. Senate.“As families across Wyoming struggle to keep up with soaring inflation rates and our national debt reaches new and unprecedented heights, it is time for us to take bold steps to create a brighter future for generations to come by creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” said Lummis. “Bitcoin is transforming not only our country but the world and becoming the first developed nation to use Bitcoin as a savings technology secures our position as a global leader in financial innovation. This is our Louisiana Purchase moment that will help us reach the next financial frontier.”
The BITCOIN Act establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve to serve as an additional store of value to bolster America’s balance sheet and ensure the transparent management of Bitcoin holdings of the federal government. Specifically, the legislation would:

• Establish a decentralized network of secure Bitcoin vaults operated by the United States Department of Treasury with statutory requirements ensuring the highest level of physical and cybersecurity for the nation’s Bitcoin holdings.
• Implement a 1-million-unit Bitcoin purchase program over a set period of time to acquire a total stake of approximately 5% of total Bitcoin supply, mirroring the size and scope of gold reserves held by the United States.
• Be paid for by diversifying existing funds within the Federal Reserve System and Treasury Department.
• Affirm self-custody rights of private Bitcoin holders and emphasize that the strategic Bitcoin reserve shall not infringe upon individual financial freedoms.

https://www.lummis.senate.gov/press-releases/lummis-introduces-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-legislation/

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Raider, I saw the interviews from Trump/RFK. I really that Trump was smart enough to change his stance. He's trying to get the Bitcoiner vote. Whether he's honest about policy? RFK called him out from changing stance from an earlier time period.

Stock-piling BTC has to be a smart strategy. US states (like WISC) are doing it.

[raiders72001]

Dates around 23 September likely to be marked as a local top in my opinion.

Won't be surprised if market crashes these days.

Shitcoins Open Interest is way too high. When I look twitter, I see only greed and people waiting for altseason.

Volatiliy will increase thru elections.

Kamala will win probably (which won't be bad for bitcoin over long haul but not so good for crypto) and after big red kamala candle, bull season should start in few weeks. Remember, Bull Season Plane takes off when hopelessness is at peak.

October and early November likely to be red (discounts!) in my opinion. I'm happy when Bitcoin price drops because you can buy it cheaper.

Trump went to the bitcoin convention. He was at a bitcoin bar last week. He plans for the US to stockpile 5% of all bitcoin and make the US the bitcoin capitol of the world. A change in stance to get votes. Kamala is doing the same in changing somewhat and seems to be more crypto friendly now. Who knows if she wins. Trump says he'll fire Gensler day one.

[Sawyer]

Dates around 23 September likely to be marked as a local top in my opinion.

Won't be surprised if market crashes these days.

Shitcoins Open Interest is way too high. When I look twitter, I see only greed and people waiting for altseason.

Volatiliy will increase thru elections.

Kamala will win probably (which won't be bad for bitcoin over long haul but not so good for crypto) and after big red kamala candle, bull season should start in few weeks. Remember, Bull Season Plane takes off when hopelessness is at peak.

October and early November likely to be red (discounts!) in my opinion. I'm happy when Bitcoin price drops because you can buy it cheaper.

[raiders72001]

Salud, Lex. A few things:
1) I think BTC guys who have been in for > one cycle understand the volatility. If you zoom out, it looks more cyclical.

2) I do wonder about one question: *Is the BTC price correlated to the US rate hikes?
...Someone smarter than me might have a better answer. But that does appear to be the reason for BTC price jump in recent days.

It's always been a catalyst, like any other major event, but long term the price follows the cycle. It may or may not be the start of the huge run we are waiting for.

[veriableodds]

I use 20% of my portfolio for risk but seeking out dividends. (growth and stability are not the goal) I have $BITO hedged with $FIAT, all I can say so far is wow on the dividend side. It's a small amount % wise in these but like them.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky I’ve been trying to tell you guys since 2021 BTC price is going to be pegged to Fed QT & QE just like any risk asset. Bitcoin had 12 years of QE to go vertical but now with inflation and deglobalization this is going to make the picture much much more murky. IMO you could have a decade or more to shake out inflation and as much as we like to label bitcoin as an inflation hedge, it’s just not traded by big money like this yet. Maybe someday it will, right now it’s a risk asset and should be traded as such.

with that being said, QE is on right now.

AVAX just broke out on the weekly

Good post, trobin. I am observing how BTC responds.

In my mind, it's a simple matter of USD being perpetually printed and de-based. BTC is a fixed supply, so BTC/USD ratio would seemingly increase pro-rata to the money-printing.

[trobin31]

Salud, Lex. A few things:
1) I think BTC guys who have been in for > one cycle understand the volatility. If you zoom out, it looks more cyclical.

2) I do wonder about one question: *Is the BTC price correlated to the US rate hikes?
...Someone smarter than me might have a better answer. But that does appear to be the reason for BTC price jump in recent days.

Chucky I’ve been trying to tell you guys since 2021 BTC price is going to be pegged to Fed QT & QE just like any risk asset. Bitcoin had 12 years of QE to go vertical but now with inflation and deglobalization this is going to make the picture much much more murky. IMO you could have a decade or more to shake out inflation and as much as we like to label bitcoin as an inflation hedge, it’s just not traded by big money like this yet. Maybe someday it will, right now it’s a risk asset and should be traded as such.

with that being said, QE is on right now.

AVAX just broke out on the weekly

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think we should dig this topic up again

Salud, Lex. A few things:
1) I think BTC guys who have been in for > one cycle understand the volatility. If you zoom out, it looks more cyclical.

2) I do wonder about one question: *Is the BTC price correlated to the US rate hikes?
...Someone smarter than me might have a better answer. But that does appear to be the reason for BTC price jump in recent days.

[Lex_icon]

I think we should dig this topic up again

[Arky]

Out on bail .. should be interesting to see how this one plays out … law, tech, cryptography, and code …

Idk if I would be in TON … some things just aren’t tolerated. Monero, tornado cash, discreetness w terrorist on binance, idk about encrypted communication.. but I can understand either way.

Tolerated? It's a witch-hunt against crypto. "Illegal" and immoral transactions have been going on with cash for years. But cash is OK because it is part of the present system. But not for long (CBDCs incoming). Criminal transactions with crypto represent such a small percentage of all transactions but get magnified and blown up to make the whole look bad.

Crypto is a threat to those that want to rule over us. It's an independent and alternative system that "they" can't control. I think Bitcoin is only "tolerated" because it is trackable.

I own a good chunk of Monero and it has rebounded from the Binance delisting quite well. The day that Monero gets universally banned will be a sad day for crypto.

Have you heard the rumor that Macron invited Durov to France under the pretense of a meeting and then arrested him?

[Optional]

Raiders, did you hear that some of the big BTC Youtube channels are being shut down? SIMPLY BITCOIN was shut down, and they were one of the best channels.

Youtube is censoring strong BTC content. By the way, the Elizabeth Warren videos might be the funniest thing I've seen.

As it goes mainstream people with serious money will want to see it regulated like other financial instruments.

Which will mean licensing to be able to offer financial advice.

The time of hype marketing being over might also signal a change that equals upward pressure.

[brainfreeze]

Arrest of the Telegram founder in France has hurt TON. Unless Telegram is shut down, this may help TON long term. I'm holding a lot of NOT.

Out on bail .. should be interesting to see how this one plays out … law, tech, cryptography, and code …

Idk if I would be in TON … some things just aren’t tolerated. Monero, tornado cash, discreetness w terrorist on binance, idk about encrypted communication.. but I can understand either way.

[raiders72001]

Raiders, did you hear that some of the big BTC Youtube channels are being shut down? SIMPLY BITCOIN was shut down, and they were one of the best channels.

Youtube is censoring strong BTC content. By the way, the Elizabeth Warren videos might be the funniest thing I've seen.

Insane that they are trying to hurt BTC. I think that will turn. I'll have to check out some of the Warren vids.

[trytrytry]

Raiders, did you hear that some of the big BTC Youtube channels are being shut down? SIMPLY BITCOIN was shut down, and they were one of the best channels.

Youtube is censoring strong BTC content. By the way, the Elizabeth Warren videos might be the funniest thing I've seen.

Randi Hipper youtube going strong she has a show dailyRandi Hipper

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Raiders, did you hear that some of the big BTC Youtube channels are being shut down? SIMPLY BITCOIN was shut down, and they were one of the best channels.

Youtube is censoring strong BTC content. By the way, the Elizabeth Warren videos might be the funniest thing I've seen.

[raiders72001]

Arrest of the Telegram founder in France has hurt TON. Unless Telegram is shut down, this may help TON long term. I'm holding a lot of NOT.

[EasyCover]

Not giving out an opinion on Trump or Kamala but here are some of Kamala's plans affecting BTC. First of the DOJ is selling the silk road bitcoin. Trump won't sell BTC and looks like he's bringing both Musk and RFK Jr on board.

Kamala Harris Capital Gains Tax Proposal Puts Bitcoin and Crypto In Pressure (coingape.com)

I think I read 45% capital gains only on investors that make 400k or more yearly.

Doubt either of these get through Congress. And the unrealized gains part is highly impractical and may even be unconstitutional.

[EasyCover]

Not giving out an opinion on Trump or Kamala but here are some of Kamala's plans affecting BTC. First of the DOJ is selling the silk road bitcoin. Trump won't sell BTC and looks like he's bringing both Musk and RFK Jr on board.

Kamala Harris Capital Gains Tax Proposal Puts Bitcoin and Crypto In Pressure (coingape.com)

25% on unrealized capital gains:

• It applies only to individuals with at least $100 million in wealth who do not pay at least a 25% tax rate on their income (inclusive of unrealized capital gains). Payments can be spread out over subsequent years.
• Within that $100 million club, you'd only pay taxes on unrealized capital gains if at least 80% of your wealth is in tradeable assets (i.e., not shares of private startups or real estate). One caveat for this illiquid group is that there would be a deferred tax of up to 10% on unrealized capital gains upon exit

[raiders72001]

Not giving out an opinion on Trump or Kamala but here are some of Kamala's plans affecting BTC. First of the DOJ is selling the silk road bitcoin. Trump won't sell BTC and looks like he's bringing both Musk and RFK Jr on board.

Kamala Harris likely to unleash tax terrorism if she wins the upcoming US elections.
25% tax on unrealized gains can undermine holding power of Bitcoin long-term investors.
Massive taxation can push the crypto industry out of the US giving leverage to other economies.
The latest reports in the town suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris is endorsing Joe Biden’s FY2025 Budget Proposal of introducing a staggering 45% capital gains tax on long-term investments in the U.S. If this weren’t enough, she’s also considering bringing a 25% tax on unrealized gains. This news has sent jitters across the crypto market with Bitcoin and altcoins turning red in the past few hours.

Kamala Harris Capital Gains Tax Proposal Puts Bitcoin and Crypto In Pressure (coingape.com)

[Arky]

Sobering and somewhat alarming look at CBDCs and how Bitcoin/crypto will need to fit in. Mike Adams, creator of Brighteon.com interviews Aaron Day on these issues here. Interview runs about an hour and then there is a about a ½ hour follow-up. If you don't want to wake up, don't watch.

--------------------------------------

In the interview, the Cake Wallet is mentioned. I downloaded it to my phone and so far it seems pretty good. Supports Bitcoin, Eth, Monero, Tron, Solana and others. I think each crypto gets its own seed phrase which is a sort of inconvenient but there are other features that are nice such as Cake Pay built in which allows you to buy a large assortment of gift cards right in the wallet. Recommend and save those seed phrases....

[Optional]

Congratulations - you survived the bearmarket of August 5 to 8.

This time last week, things were looking grim, with Bitcoin plunging to $A77K (US$49.8K) as traditional markets tanked. But Bitcoin went on to jump 12% on Thursday, which was the biggest single-day rise since February 2022.

The Bank of Japan soothed fears of any further interest rate rises, and Bitcoin whales bought the dip, according to Santiment. Despite a"death cross" appearing on the charts (often not that deadly), Bitcoin has recovered almost all of the ground it lost inthe crash and finishes the week up 5% from last Tuesday.

Ethereum was hit harder, and while it finished the week at7%, it remained 8% below its pre-crash price. Solana gained 3%, XRP (10%), Dogecoin(7%) and Cardano (2%).

With Iran still indicating it will launch an attack on Israel and US inflation and retail sales data out this week, there are still plenty of risks. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Krugertold Blockworks: "Technically speaking, there has been nothing in recent price action to suggest anything more than choppy trade."

With August and September typically poor months for crypto market returns, analysts appear to be coalescing on October as the most likely time for price appreciation. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 25, or Extreme Fear.