June 24 Ganchalysis

[Ganchrow]

Oakland 57% - Wright has had a modest degree of volatility this year, and his expected performance has a high degree of uncertainty, although he is more likely to throw a good game than a bad one. Haren has been very effective of late, and that is likely to continue here. Oakland has a thin pen, but Calero and Street are good, and Oakland is not likely to need more than that here. Both offenses are cold, but Oakland has a small edge in that area.

Yankees 57% - Chacon has been hit recently and Johnson has been sharp this year, and while both are likely to experience some degree of reversal of form in the near future, they are both likely to continue pitching as they have recently in this game. Both pens are shaky, which benefits Florida slightly. The Yankees do rate a modestly significant lineup edge.

Toronto 63% - Hernandez has been good, but inconsistent, and this is likely to be a tough spot for him, off of a high pitch count vs a good offense in a hitters' park. Halladay has been surprisingly inconsistent this year, but he should throw a good game here. The Mets have a strong edge in the pen, and Halladay's performance is key to how much that will matter.

Washington 58% - There is a very high degree of uncertainty in this game due to many conflicting indicators. O'Connor has been effective at RFK which is well-suited to his style of pitching, but as a rookie going on the road to a hitters' park he is likely to get hit, which conflicts with Baltimore's likely poor offensive performance vs all quality lefties. Loewen is not ready to consistently get major league hitters out yet, which conflicts with Washington's expected poor offensive performance for this game. Washington does have a modest bullpen edge here, and O'Connor is likely to come out on top of the Baltimore offense, and the Washington offense is likely to get to Loewen.

[bigboydan]

i have a small lean toward the marlins today myself ganchrow.

[Ganchrow]

Detroit 57% - Rogers is another one of those pitchers who is well-suited to his home park, and does exceptionally well there. He is slightly less likely than usual to have a strong start here, but he is still likely to nonetheless. Suppan is likely to have a mediocre start, although he is more likely than normal to have a good one. The bullpens and lineups rate roughly even for this game.

Milwaukee 58% - This is a somewhat dangerous spot for Milwaukee. Davis has pitched well recently but here he is likely to have a mediocre outing. Duckworth is also likely to get hit by the strong Milwaukee lineup. Milwaukee has an edge in the pen, as every team does vs Kansas City, and if the game is close in the later innings that edge will factor in significantly.

Minnesota 57% - Both of these starters are in very questionable shape. Prior's current state is difficult to ascertain, but being on the turf vs a productive offense is a situation that will not be forgiving of him working himself into shape. In any case, he is not likely to go deep into the game at all. The Cubs do have a capable pen for this game, but they will still be vulnerable. Bonser is likely to get hit as well, and Minnesota will likely bring in a poor pitcher for the middle innings. However, Minnesota's lineup edge confers a modest overall edge to them for this game.

[bigboydan]

you have anything on the Seattle/San Diego game as of yet ganchrow ?

[Ganchrow]

you have anything on the Seattle/San Diego game as of yet ganchrow ?

I will post that as soon as i get to it.

[moses millsap]

Ganch,

Any thoughts on that Cubs/Twins total. I'm thinking of selling up to 10 +151.

Thanks for the thoughts on that Brewers/Royals game. I'm still looking over that one.

[moses millsap]

Actually nevermind, I had the wrong ump on that game. Probably passing with Gorman.

[moses millsap]

Got a quick # on that ATL/TB game? I took a shot with that one, just wanted to see your prediction (btw, props on calling that extra innings game in SD last night)

[Ganchrow]

Got a quick # on that ATL/TB game? I took a shot with that one, just wanted to see your prediction (btw, props on calling that extra innings game in SD last night)

Tampa Bay 56%, sorry no write-up.

[moses millsap]

Tampa Bay 56%, sorry no write-up.

Thanks

[Ganchrow]

Colorado 51% - This game has a low confidence factor. Texas has a vulnerable bullpen in general, and for this game it will be much more so than usual. Increasing the impact of that is Tejeda's tendency towards high pitch counts and low innings totals. Fogg is likely to get hit, but Colorado rates an edge if the game is close in the later innings as it is likely to be.

[Ganchrow]

Angels 58% - Colon's condition is still a question mark, but all the reports we have seen say his velocity is good and he is feeling fine. If he has a short outing, the Angel bullpen is capable of finishing well. Arizona is obviously in free-fall in all areas, and this game is not likely to be one where that changes.

[Ganchrow]

San Diego 55% - Moyer's expected performance has a high degree of uncertainty. He is far better at home than on the road, but Petco Park might well offer similar conditions to the ones at Safeco he is so good at taking advantage of. Our assessment of Moyer's likely performance is based more on this than on statistical indicators. Park is likely to throw a good game as well, although the Seattle lineup has a modest chance of getting to him. As with the game yesterday, San Diego rates a bullpen edge that is likely to factor in significantly.

[Ganchrow]

Dodgers 51% - Sele has been having problems recently and they are likely reflective of how he will perform in the future. Duke is likely to get hit as well, although he has a higher likelihood of a quality start than Sele. Pittsburgh also rates a bullpen edge here.