June 10 Ganchalysis

[Ganchrow]

Philadelphia 53% - Lidle's consistent mediocrity gives a small edge to Philadelphia here. If they are in the game in the later innings, their superiority in offense, pen, and pen stamina will give them a significant advantage. Hernandez is also consistent and better than Lidle in general, however this is the kind of park that benefits Lidle, as his performance last year supports.

(1)Texas 52% - 2 brand new starters bring a huge amount of uncertainty to the table, but Rheinecker has had 2 very impressive outings in a row, and Lester has major question marks as he was hit badly in the spring, and was unsteady in the minors with 25 walks in 47 innings. Still, Rheinecker is the kind of
pitcher who is vulnerable at Fenway, and is likely to have some bad outings very soon. The Texas pen is treacherous vs strong offenses.

Yankees 69% - Oakland's thin pen should be a big factor here. Mussina is relatively consistent and will likely keep the Yankees in it until the final innings.

White Sox 53% - Buehrle has been having problems this year staying inside his relatively low margin for error, and those problems have been particularly pronounced vs Cleveland, however this game being at home and in the daytime sets him up for a strong performance. Sabathia has been dominant this year, and while he is sure to have more dominant stretches, his sub-par outings are likely to come clustered together. A shutout from him, while always a possibility, is not likely here.

Tampa Bay 54% - These are 2 very similar teams, fielding weak offenses which can at times score in bunches, with 2 starters who are sub-par and who don't go deep into games but who can at times be effective, and 2 bullpens in absolute disarray. Tampa Bay rates a slight edge though, because in all of those areas for this game their prospects are slightly less dismal.

[bigboydan]

ganchrow, did you happen to see that white sox lineup today. it's not there best at all by any means.

[onlooker]

ganchrow, did you happen to see that white sox lineup today. it's not there best at all by any means.

Its pretty much their same lineup, minus Podsednik and AJ. But their strong bats are still in there. I dont see them losing because them two are out today.

[Ganchrow]

San Francisco 54% - Both starters have high volatility, and incidentally, both have had terrible results in the daytime in their brief respective careers. This confers a modest benefit to San Francisco. Pittsburgh's offense is getting better production with the return of Casey and the emergence of a few young newcomers.

Atlanta 58% - Buchholz has been the quintessential talented rookie with extreme volatility so far this year. Atlanta's offense will no doubt be more productive at some point in the near future, but for now they are struggling a bit and Buchholz is more likely to have a stellar outing than it might seem at first glance. Hudson is also likely to have a good game. Both pens are in terrible form right now, and if both starters throw good games Buchholz is more likely to have a lower pitch count and go deeper. While Houston's offense has done well the past 2 games, they are more likely to get shut down in general than Atlanta's.

Toronto 57% - Miner was sharp in the minors this year, and although the potent Toronto lineup poses the same challenges the Boston lineup did in his first start in the majors, he could do well here as he can be expected to mix some effective outings along with ineffective ones in the near future. Lilly has been having problems in general, and although the Detriot offense has cooled off a bit to its more natural level, and although Detroit is also less effective vs lefties, this is still a dangerous spot for Lilly. The Toronto pen has been overused and if Lilly only goes 5 innings or so, the later innings will be dangerous for Toronto. The Detroit pen has also been extended recently. Who is in the lineups today will factor in as well.

[Ganchrow]

ganchrow, did you happen to see that white sox lineup today. it's not there best at all by any means.

Bigboydan, these writeups are done well before the lineups come out. They are preliminary takes on some of the salient handicapping aspects of the games, but do not by any means encompass the entirety of the factors we use. Of course they change as additional information becomes available, such as lineup announcements. In general I'll try to modify write ups to reflect important roster changes, but that's not always possible given time constraints.

With regard to the handicapping in that game in particular, our research indicated that Buehrle had a higher than normal chance of throwing a good game, and Sabathia had a higher than normal chance of getting hit. If either one of those things were to wind up happening, we saw a play on the White Sox as strong. Buehrle did in fact throw a good game, so we consider the bet to have been a good one, even though the White Sox may well unltimately lose.

[Ganchrow]

Cubs 57% - Claussen is not likely to go deep into this game, giving Cincinnati's iffy pen significant exposure. Zambrano is vulnerable in hitters' parks, and keeping his walk total down will be key. The Cubs' offense is still very weak and inconsistent.

Milwaukee 60% - Milwaukee is likely to hit Marquis here, and if they don't, Capuano is likely to have Milwaukee in the game after 7, as he has been very consistent and effective so far this year. The pen situation benefits Milwaukee here as well, and their lineup which is now on the strong side will have many chances to produce.

Baltimore 54% - These 2 starters have had all kinds of problems this year, but Cabrera has at least mixed them in with some good outings. Only the pitching coaches know where they are right now, and even they probably don't know much. But Silva should get hit again and Cabrera should have control problems again. All other factors for this game are roughly equal as well.

Colorado 52% - Tomko has been hit recently and that should continue for the near future. Jennings has a very high volatility factor, and there are no solid indicators as to how he will fare tonight. Colorado's offense should continue to be generally weak.

[Ganchrow]

Arizona 61% - Soler comes with many unknowns and a lot of unpredictability in this start, as far as how he will respond to pitching in a park like Chase, and it's likely he will get hit. Arizona has been a mess as a team recently but their underachievement is sure to end soon and this is a promising spot for it. the Mets' lineup's excellence and strong momentum collides with that of Webb's, creating a good deal of uncertainty, but Webb's is slightly more likely to continue.

Florida 52% - This is a good spot for Olsen, and he is likely to throw a good game here. It is not a good spot for Hensley, whose very real problems at times this year are likely to continue tonight. However, he might get a reprieve since Florida's recent offensive problems are also likely to continue. This expected war of attrition confers a modest edge to Florida. San Diego's normal prodigious bullpen edge will be mitigated significantly for this game, although despite that they still maintain a modest edge.

Angels 63% - This is a bad spot for both Meche and Seattle. The Angels will have significant edges and promising statistical situations in many ways tonight. Lackey will need to provide only a modestly quality start, which is likely but only moderately. He is very likely to give up a handful of runs but very unlikely to give up more than that.