Thoughts and opinions on +/-1.5 run lines on baseball

**Night-Tripper** · 05-13-12, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by georgekobe8

First year betting baseball and im just looking for some thoughts on this. Won with texas tonight at +160 laying the runs. And a few other times earlier this year. Wondering what some of the signs to look for when betting these games.

It really depends on the betting philosophy of each individual gambler. There is no single rule (or rules) of thumb... just an individuals predilection.

**turtlejc** · 05-13-12, 11:51 PM

Bullpens

**MagicDiceFlow** · 05-13-12, 11:56 PM

Be careful when betting the -1.5 run line. Pick your spots but dont fall in love with it, in the long run its a sucker bet or else books wont offer it daily. Approximately 1/3 of all games end in 1 run games, in some years even more.

**citixen** · 05-14-12, 12:16 AM

The way I see it. If a team is heavily favoured to win at all, they should win by at least 2 runs... like Magic said, definately need to pick your spots.

**Squirrel Kokomo** · 05-14-12, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

Approximately 1/3 of all games end in 1 run games, in some years even more.

I thought it was 27%

**MagicDiceFlow** · 05-14-12, 12:46 AM

FYI, what the books wont tell you about the -1.5 run line is that if you bet that line and your team ends up winning by 1 run, you actually lost more than your bet due to the "implied win odds" if you wouldve just bet the regular game.

For example, say you took $100 on the Yankees -1.5 /+130 and they win by 1 run. The regular line was Yankees -150. In actuality, you lost $100 + $66(money you would have won if you bet the regular line)=$166.....books factor this into that line which is why it looks tempting at first glance.

**moshi** · 05-14-12, 01:56 AM

Depending on my confidence level, I use it to hedge my bets so if say, the fave wins but doesn't cover, I get my money back. Similarly if the underdog covers but doesn't win. Most of the time either the fave covers or the underdog wins SU so it doesn't matter, but if you only wanted to bet the ML it effectively means you either get better odds (by splitting with the RL) or you get a refund provided the fave doesn't lose.

**taxe91** · 05-14-12, 04:18 AM

Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

Be careful when betting the -1.5 run line. Pick your spots but dont fall in love with it, in the long run its a sucker bet or else books wont offer it daily. Approximately 1/3 of all games end in 1 run games, in some years even more.

Originally posted by Squirrel Kokomo

I thought it was 27%

this is interesting, does anyone have a source?

**agendaman** · 05-14-12, 05:20 AM

here are 2 nice sources/baseball reference .com and beyond the bets .com

**taxe91** · 05-14-12, 07:49 AM

assuming ive done this right, it looks like texas only won 19 of their 96 wins by 1 run last year. i dont have access to an odds database but i'd be interested to see the result of playing a -1 run line on all their games

**MagicDiceFlow** · 05-14-12, 10:17 AM

NL has a lot more 1 run games , especially the NL WEST. Giants & Dodgers stadium had quite a bit of 1 runners last year.

**georgekobe8** · 05-15-12, 12:07 AM

Great info guys. Looks like I might be going 3-3 for the day on the -1.5 runs if the giants can hold off the rockies in the top of the 9th

**georgekobe8** · 05-15-12, 12:08 AM

I dont intend to make a habit of these bets but they sure are fun when they hit.

**georgekobe8** · 05-15-12, 12:12 AM

Straight bet
[964] la dodgers -1½+140
( i. Kennedy -r / c. Kershaw -l )

straight bet
[952] was nationals -1½+155
( t. Stauffer -r / r. Detwiler -l )

straight bet
[966] sfo giants -1½+160
( c. Friedrich -l / r. Vogelsong -r )

**georgekobe8** · 05-15-12, 12:22 AM

spoke to soon on the giants game, owell 2-3 not so bad