9/3

[BadBeatBodog]

Barely had time to cap the afternoon games so I will post yesterday's record (I was down about one unit) and updated overall record later.

Toronto RL +145**
Philadelphia RL +100
Detroit ML -125
Los Angeles TT o4.5 -130
New York @ Tampa Bay o9.5 -105

Take luck

[ryanXL977]

two questions, why in gods name are you laying on the tigers
b: why do you like tor rl

reasons por favor

[DazeyBlazer]

i like the tigers too

angels have been squeaking out wins lately

but i like MINER

[no chance in hell]

tigers might not play tonight, lots of rain here

[BadBeatBodog]

Sorry Ryan I had to step out but I'm back.

Why do I like the Tigers? I actually think Miner is overrated (4.49 FIP 5.10 xFIP). Garland, however, is not much better (4.96 FIP 4.67 xFIP) and is the type of pitcher Detroit feasts on: finesse (.795 OPS) ground ball (.820 OPS). The Angels show no huge advantage against the type of pitcher Miner is. So while the Angels have a small SP advantage in general, Detroit has a very large offensive advantage because of the type of pitcher Garland is. I probably should have played Detroit ML FF because of the bullpens, though.

As for Toronto, Blackburn is one of those Minny pitchers who benefits from the Metrodome, as evidenced by his home/away splits. In addition, Toronto struggles against every type of pitcher except average GB/FB pitchers, which they rake (.794 OPS); Blackburn just so happens to fall into that category. Burnett, on the other hand, is a power ground ball pitcher. Minnesota does not fare well versus power hurlers (.712) and is not much better versus ground ball pitchers (.746 OPS)

Blackburn: 4.04 FIP 4.56 xFIP
Burnett: 3.70 FIP 3.64 xFIP

That is a big difference in xFIP.

[ryanXL977]

you are loookin nice early

i guess i understand the tor rl play
the detroit play confounds me bc they have mailed it in

[BadBeatBodog]

Extremely frustrating Toronto game. One of the best bullpens in the majors blows my RL play. Hindsight tells me I should have made it a ML*** play. My only two losses today were RL.

Toronto RL +145** - LOSS
Philadelphia RL +100 - LOSS
Detroit ML -125 - WIN
Los Angeles (N) TT o4.5 -130 - WIN (forgot to specify which league in the OP but they both went over 4.5 anyway)
New York @ Tampa Bay o9.5 -105 - WIN

5-6 -1.2u yesterday
3-2 +0u today. Updated overall record in my sig