Capping and Discussions 4/10

**mlwitchking** · 04-09-06, 09:04 PM

i have been thinking about tomorrow's most exciting game, the first cardinals game ever at the new busch stadium. even though the brewers are doing well, they are big underdogs at about +150. i think the sportsbook have overvalued the home field advantage because no one actually know what the field will be like! even though i am a cardinals fan, i like the tremendous value of the brewers at +150.

**mlwitchking** · 04-09-06, 09:06 PM

i'd never thought i'd see the day when the tigers would be favored over the white sox. wow.

**Illusion** · 04-09-06, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by mlwitchking

i'd never thought i'd see the day when the tigers would be favored over the white sox. wow.

They are very hot right now and Garcia got shelled in his first start.

**mlwitchking** · 04-09-06, 09:12 PM

i understand why the line is like that, but who would have predicted it at the beginning of the season? No one. Sane that is.

**mlwitchking** · 04-09-06, 09:16 PM

in correlation with the above, i see huge potential value for the tigers, as the betting public will bet down the defending champions.

**bigboydan** · 04-09-06, 09:36 PM

Garcia's day time start record is great.

**Illusion** · 04-09-06, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

Garcia's day time start record is great.

Good point, but his first was a day game.

**bigboydan** · 04-09-06, 09:39 PM

true ILL, but thats a stat you can't over look when capping that game.

**Illusion** · 04-09-06, 09:42 PM

I'm probably gonna pass on it anyway.

**Alamorich** · 04-09-06, 10:22 PM

Garcia was a good road pitcher last year as I recall. I like to play normally good pitchers that got shelled in their last game. Good example was Pettite who embarassed himself opening day and came back with a good game today. No sure Bonderman can pitch two good games b2b.

**Alamorich** · 04-09-06, 10:24 PM

All home teams are favored except T.B. and they might be the best bet to win their game.

**Illusion** · 04-09-06, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by Alamorich

All home teams are favored except T.B. and they might be the best bet to win their game.

I just glanced at the board and Milwaukee and Baltimore are really sticking out.

**Alamorich** · 04-10-06, 02:02 AM

Cardinals are a public favorite...I think that line is very inflated. I'm not sold on Baltimore on the road...T.B. is 3-3 so they are totally in the suck catagory just yet.

**imgv94** · 04-10-06, 02:26 AM

PIRATES -132!!!!!

**Illusion** · 04-10-06, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

PIRATES -132!!!!!

I hate laying juice so I bet 1.5. Let's cash this im.

**mlwitchking** · 04-10-06, 12:19 PM

I lean on the Brewers for the following reasons:
1. They have been winning.
2. The Cardinals have been losing.
3. The is no home field advantage if the home team has never played at home ever.
4. The Cardinals bullpen is serving up two things: walks and home runs.
5. The Brewers are at +161

**Illusion** · 04-10-06, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by mlwitchking

I lean on the Brewers for the following reasons:
1. They have been winning.
2. The Cardinals have been losing.
3. The is no home field advantage if the home team has never played at home ever.
4. The Cardinals bullpen is serving up two things: walks and home runs.
5. The Brewers are at +161

The line is over inflated. I love the Brewers in this spot also.

**Razz** · 04-10-06, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by mlwitchking

I lean on the Brewers for the following reasons:
1. They have been winning.
2. The Cardinals have been losing.
3. The is no home field advantage if the home team has never played at home ever.
4. The Cardinals bullpen is serving up two things: walks and home runs.
5. The Brewers are at +161

6. The Cardinals are coming off a rivalry series, which saw them swept by the Cubs.

**Illusion** · 04-10-06, 02:51 PM

7. Alot of late money pooring in on the Cardinals.

**Winston Smith** · 04-10-06, 03:27 PM

Just heard on the broadcast that they switched Ron Culpa, the HP ump, to this game from another because he's from Saint Louis so he could ump the first game in the new park. That would have been nice to know ahead of time.