Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.
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Looking at one of possibly two games for me to play: Detroit Tigers (2-0) at Texas Rangers (1-2).
The Tigers have won two straight games in compelling fashion, albeit against the Kansas City Royals. They have confidence heading to Texas. Texas, meanwhile, lost the rubber game against Boston 2-1. I see this as a high scoring game as Robertson and Dickey head to the mound. I think one of the best bets for tomorrow's games is the Over 10.5 Run Line. I also am considering picking Detriot as an underdog, because they have some winning momentum. Possible value picking Detriot to win the series as well.Comment -
I'm still looking at the board, but I have strong leans towards the Phillies, Nationals, and MarinersComment -
I feel the same way about the phillies, but not strong enough to pick either team. My initial lean towards Detroit is gone. Current Leans on Texas-Detroit Over 10.5, Atlanta-SanFrancisco Over 8.5, and Atlanta ML and/or alt run line at -1.5.Comment -
Here's my extremely quick analysis on the games I played in a couple minutes before I go to bed. I wish I had time to look up more stats - I checked a couple earlier, but don't remember them.
1* Phillies +111 (Lidle/Marquis)
1* Phillies Over 10.5 +101 (CL/JM)
Too erratic pitchers here, but I lean to the Fightin Phils and Lidle in the final game of the series as they fight to avoid being swept. Marquis is, in my opinion, one of the worst pitchers in the game that still carries a hefty pricetag (How do you lose 7 straight games with the Cardinals lineup behind you?). Lidle is capable of pitching a no-hitter (he's done it) or giving up 10 runs in 2 innings (he's done it). It's hard to envision losing both, because that would entail Philly scoring less than five runs. Not gonna happen.
2* Reds -120 (Claussen/Snell)
Snell got bombed all spring training, he was torched by the Reds last year, while Claussen only gave up 5 combined runs in two outings against Pittsburgh last year. This Pirates teams hasn't been able to score runs this year, and despite going to a hitter's park, I don't see them breaking out here.
1* Rockies -112 (Francis/Batista)
This line has already risen, and with good reason. Francis is one of the best pitchers in the league that noone knows about, and he understands how to pitch at Coors. Batista doesn't, and I think he is going to get shelled.
1* D Rays +145 (Hendrickson/Benson)
Baltimore rocked Tampa in the first two meetings, but the O's are playing above their heads, and actually I believe the Rays may be the more complete team here. No respect for Benson, and Hendrickson is a solid underdog.
1* Rangers -102 (Dickey/Robertson)
With respect to Robertson and his success against some of the Rangers hitters, I think the Tigers are in for a wakeup call in this one. RA Dickey is sort of like a knuckleballer; that is, he's not the pitcher you want to face when things are going well. The Tigers' bats are hot, but I think Dickey cools them off a little while Texas gets more runs than they did against Boston's aces.
1* Braves +117 (Sosa/Lowry)
This one is relatively simple. I respect both these pitchers, but Sosa was unbeatable on the road last year, and his team is scoring at an unexpected clip. I'm not going to pass up Jorge Sosa as a road dog until proven otherwise.
1* Mariners +107 (Meche/Loaiza)
Well, I always like to fade teams off a series with the Yankees, especially when they were victorious in the last game. Now, Oakland heads to what seems to be a much-improved Mariners team. Seattle struggled to score last year, but things have gone much better for them so far, and against some pretty good pitchers. I'm not sure Loaiza is more than an average pitcher at this stage of his career, and I'm not passing up this home dog.
Good luck guys.Comment -
Looks like I'm on the opposite side of the whole site with the Cards today. My opinion has changed greatly of Marquis despite his horrid 10 game or so stretch last year. Every spring he comes in with open ears and actually listens it seems...which is different than his reputation from the Atlanta years. I know spring outings don't count but I loved what he did his last couple outings and think he continues that today.
I'm leaning on the same side of most of the other games RAZZ lists...
Reds, D-Rays, Rockies, Rangers
No opinion on the Mariners....and I'm leaning towards the Giants against the Braves
Good luck to all it should be fun.Comment -
Lean on Cincinnati now. They can score. Pittsburgh cannot. I am looking to turn a -120 ML favorite into a +175 -1.5 Run Line Underdog. Reds are coming off a win. The Pirates are coming off three losses to Milwaukee. Momentum rules. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has been getting quite a few hits against the Brewers and some the Pirates are hitting over .350 in Cincinnati. Clousen has some recent sucess against the Pirates as well.Last edited by mlwitchking; 04-06-06, 09:49 AM.Comment -
Looking at the lines, popular picks seem to be phillies and braves as their lines have moved about 10 points already.Last edited by mlwitchking; 04-06-06, 09:52 AM.Comment -
Originally posted by mlwitchking
I'd say the popular pick is the Cardinals. Line movement against the public here.Comment -
In the best bets thread, 6 people are choosing the phillies and 2 people are choosing the cardinals.Comment -
Thursday's afternoon contests...
I'm with Razz on why I might take the Phils (avoiding sweep), but I'm also with him with regards to Marquis/Lidle being a pair of tough pitchers to handicap.
St. Louis (J.Marquis) at Philadelphia (C.Lidle) – 3:05 (ET)
Jason Marquis had a very good spring (1.96 ERA, .198 BAA, 22 IP). But he has had trouble finding the plate against the Phillies (18 BB to 7 K in last 22 IP). This will be his first start at Philly’s new park. He has had trouble with Pat Burrell (.318, 22 AB) and Mike Lieberthal (.375, HR. 16 AB). Marquis has limited Bobby Abreu to a microscopic .056 AVG in 18 AB, but Abreu has drawn 8 BB at the same time. Jimmy Rollins’ hit streak could be in danger as he’s batted just .136 (3-for-22) against Marquis.
Cory Lidle had a rather non-descript spring, and has somehow managed a 6-5 record in 15 April starts the last three seasons despite a 5.05 ERA. In his last seven starts against the Cards, he is 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA. The most crucial hitter in St. Louis’ lineup for Lidle might be Jim Edmonds who has reached base 11 times in 21 plate appearances (5 hits, 6 BB).
The plate umpire should be Brian O’Nora who has a rather ‘middle of the road’ strike zone. In 34 games (608.3 half innings) behind the dish in 2005, just over 63% of the pitches he called were strikes. He slightly favors the batter. The forecast calls for a game time temp around 53°, partly cloudy with a 10MPH wind out of NW (blowing in from left-center). Never have had any confidence in Lidle, and the only reason I might take the Phillies would be due to the odds against a series sweep for the Cards.
Atlanta (J.Sosa) at San Francisco (N.Lowry) – 4:05 ET
Jorge Sosa makes just the fourth April start of his career after a shaky spring during which batters stroked him at the rate of .354 over 14 IP. He has done well against the Giants, albeit in limited history (1 start, 1 relief, 7.1 IP, 1.23 ERA). His only start in San Fran saw him toss 6 IP, allowing just 1 run and coming away with the dubya. Randy Winn is the only Giants hitter to see a lot of Sosa, batting .308 in 13 AB.
Lefty Noah Lowry had a decent spring, striking out 20 in 23 frames against eight walks and a homer. He has not been a great pitcher in limited April action (5 starts, 6.23 ERA, .302 BAA), and has not fared all that well against Atlanta in his two starts (0-1, 5.25 ERA). No ATL hitter has seen Lowry for more than six plate appearances.
I have no info yet on who the umpire crew might be for San Fran’s home opener. The forecast is for a game time temp of 55°, partly cloudy with very little wind. I like the value in Sosa’s and the Braves’ +116 in this one, though it’s tough to bet against Barry and his homeboys.Comment -
Originally posted by mlwitchking
True. I would argue, though, that this is not a clear indication of the prevailing public sentiment. Which is a good thing.Comment -
From SBR Odds:
Open: Cardinals (-118) - Phillies (+110)
Now: Cardinals (-110) - Phillies (+102)
Open: Braves (+116) - Giants (-124)
Now: Braves (+106) - Giants (-114)
The line movement could be an indication of public sentiment.
Also of note:
Open: Tigers (+100) - Rangers (-108)
Now: Tigers (-107) - Rangers (-101)
Edit:
The Cardinals-Phillies line keeps on falling.
Now: Cardinals (-107) - Phillies (-101).
Thinking about picking up the Cardinals if they become the underdog.
The Total has moved down to o10-120 at some sportsbooks.
Will strongly consider the over if it gets to be an underdog at o10 or gets to 9.5.Last edited by mlwitchking; 04-06-06, 11:23 AM.Comment -
Wow!
The Phillies are now favored over the Cardinals at Pinnacle:
Cardinals (-103) - Phillies (-105)Comment -
Heres a little info on Mets game:
"Pedro Martinez is not confident about his season debut on Thursday night.Martinez is suffering from flulike symptoms and says that he has very little engergy. "I will just go out there and take this game like a spring training game," Martinez said. "Just do whatever I can. As the season goes on, hopefully get myself into baseball shape and pitching shape, and do what I have to do."
Still considering whether i should play the Nationals or over or skip it alltogether.Comment -
where did you get that information? also, Pedro has only pitched 7 innings and has a sore toe. at +200, the nationals are looking like a good pick.Comment -
I pounded the nationals for three units. Pedro is always over priced.Originally posted by mlwitchking
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Just a bad day overall. Every single bet that I considered was bad.
Phillies lost. Braves lost. Twins down 6-2. Washington down 6-5. Reds down 3-0. At least I only lost $10. I'm getting kind of low...
Edit: Except for Tigers, who are up 7-0.Comment
