Front Page Picks (Thu., Jun 12)

Willie Bee · 06-12-08, 11:23 AM

Sanchez, San Francisco Giants +110 at Colorado Rockies

Game Time: 06/12/2008 03:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

It's getaway day in the major leagues, and the Giants will be looking to get away from Colorado without being swept. Side with San Francisco Thursday against the Rockies.

Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the San Francisco Giants on the road in Denver over the Colorado Rockies.

San Francisco's AT&T Park may be one of the nicest Major League venues in which to watch a baseball game, but the Giants probably don't mind getting out of there as they are the only team in Major League Baseball to have a significantly better record on the road than at home. Fresh off their four-game sweep against the Nationals in DC, the Giants have lost two road games in a row at Coors Field to begin this series against the Rockies, the last one being a real heartbreaking 1-0 loss with their ace Tim Lincecum on the mound Wednesday night.

The good news for tonight's game is that they get to face a starter in 22-year-old right-hander Greg Reynolds who has some of the ugliest rookie stats I've seen in quite some time. When you look at Reynolds' strikeouts and walks numbers it is not a misprint. In just over 34 innings pitched this season, Reynolds has just nine strikeouts to go with 20 free passes. This does not bode well for facing major league hitters.

Reynolds will have his hands full this afternoon at home against a team that has really been hitting the snot out of the ball lately. In their last nine games the Giants have failed to score at least five runs on only three occasions. Take San Francisco.

Free Pick: Giants +110

Willie Bee · 06-12-08, 11:24 AM

Marlins +100 to sweep Phillies

Game Time: 06/12/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Last night's exciting win over the Phillies should carry over to the series finale when the Marlins go for a huge sweep. Follow Florida at home Thursday night against Philadelphia.

Veteran lefty Jamie Moyer will make his 14th start of the season tonight carrying a 6-3 mark and 4.56 ERA. In his last five starts, Moyer is 4-0 with a 3.94 ERA (14 ER in 32 innings), and he’s pitched at least six innings during that stretch.

He’s coming off a game in Atlanta of which he should have lost, but got bailed out by an error with two outs in the top of the ninth. He’s 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road allowing 39 hits and 13 runs in just over 34 total innings of work.

Philadelphia is a stellar 5-1 in his six road starts this year, and they’ve won seven of the last 10 times he’s worked. In his career against Florida, Jamie’s a perfect 8-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Moyer earned a victory against them last week at home where he threw seven innings of five-run ball in the Phillies' 7-5 victory.

Opposing him will be the Marlins left-hander Scott Olsen who comes into tonight’s start 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Unfortunately, his defense has cost him in his last three starts and that’s why he hasn’t earned a decision during that span. Florida has won nine of his 13 starts overall, and they’ve captured victories in six of his eight home starts this season.

He’s currently the sharpest he’s been all season of late going 0-0 with a 3.71 ERA and allowing 14 hits and seven earned runs in his last three starts. However, Olsen has struggled immensely against the Phillies getting rocked for a 6.00 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in nine career starts. This will be his first start against them this season.

The Phillies have excelled against left-handers this season going 16-8 overall, while the Marlins have struggled a bit winning just nine of the last 10 times. That said, Phillies bats have become awfully quiet of late, and they’re a poor 1-5 the last six times they’ve taken the trip to Miami.

Look for the Marlins to feed off the exhilaration of last night's win and finally get the best of Moyer to sweep the series.

Free Pick: Marlins +100

Willie Bee · 06-12-08, 11:26 AM

Cincinnati Reds -130 vs. Cardinals

Game Time: 06/12/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

The Reds need this one to avoid being swept at home by the Cardinals. With the big bats in Cincinnati's lineup, look for them to rebound against Joel Pineiro and St. Louis tonight.

After having lost the first two games to St. Louis in their current series, Thursday I think is the right time to go for a bet on Cincinnati, and I’ll be doing that with their modest home favorite line of about -130 that the betting odds have deemed appropriate.

St. Louis is without Albert Pujols, but that didn’t matter at all on Wednesday as the other capable bats in their lineup were able to step up and produce well in the hitter-friendly ballpark in Cincy. This was not a surprise to me, and in fact I did have a bet on the Cards as a good-sized dog yesterday. On Thursday however, my primary handicapping factor for choosing the Reds is what I believe could be vulnerability with St. Louis’ starter Joel Pineiro.

Pineiro is making his first start back from the 15-day DL, and while his injury was not arm-related, his timing and mechanics could easily be off, as he will not be having any rehab starts before taking the mound. This is not a huge deal in and of itself, but Pineiro can be vulnerable at all times anyway, and he does rely on a bit of finesse and trickery which has a relatively small margin for error. If his pinpoint mechanics suffer in this one, the Reds big lefty bats, which are probably a bit frustrated at their lack of winning lately, will be able to have a big day.

Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo is actually a similar pitcher to Pineiro, and like Pineiro is very likely to have a shut-down start or get crushed on any given day. Betting on a team with Arroyo as the starter is always a bit of a risky proposition, especially when he is facing a lively lineup such as St. Louis’. It’s never a surprise when an Arroyo-led team enters the second half of the game with a five-run deficit. But Arroyo can also be effective, and I’m willing to take a risk with him here, all things considered.

The Reds have only scored two runs in the first two games of this series, but make no mistake, they have some powerful bats in their lineup. I think it’s worth a bet that they will rebound a bit on Thursday, so my bet will be on the Reds -130 to avoid the home sweep.

Willie Bee · 06-12-08, 11:27 AM

Peavy, San Diego Padres -140 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Game Time: 06/12/2008 03:35 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Jake Peavy returns from the DL this afternoon for the Padres, and gets to do so in his own home park in San Diego. That is bad news for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Having Jake Peavy’s first start off the DL come against the Dodgers is a no-brainer on the part of San Diego manager Bud Black.

The Padres have won 12 of his last 13 outings against the Dodgers. Peavy has posted a 1.86 ERA in winning his last four starts against the Dodgers, including two this season. The two-time All-Star is 11-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 20 career starts versus the Dodgers, and is 5-0 with a 1.18 ERA in seven starts lifetime against them at Petco Park — all San Diego wins.

As if more ammunition was needed to unload on San Diego today, Peavy is 2-2 with a 1.46 ERA in five starts at home this season, but has allowed five runs in 13 innings in losing his last two starts there.

The Dodgers aren’t exactly breathing fire, as they get ready to face Peavy. LA got one run and five hits in last night’s loss to the Padres and are just .239 with 50 runs in its last 15 games. This figures to be a very profitable combination: Peavy against the Dodgers. There is no place for a “dog” at Petco Park, not on this day. Take Jake.

Free Pick: Padres -140

Willie Bee · 06-12-08, 11:28 AM

SF Giants +105 at Colorado Rockies

Game Time: 06/12/2008 03:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | phoenixsports.com

Jonathan Sanchez gives the Giants a huge pitching edge over the Rockies' Greg Reynolds, and at this price you've got to play San Francisco Thursday afternoon at Colorado.

San Francisco has not fared well in the first two games in Colorado but last night could have gone either way in that 1-0 setback. Still, the Giants are playing good baseball right now and it has been a combination of good hitting and good pitching and the latter has been on a roll even prior to this series.

The staff has now allowed three runs or less in 10 of their last 15 games. Not to be outdone, the offense has averaged 5.2 runs per game over that span with the team going 9-6 over that stretch.

Colorado is back to over .500 at home thanks to wins in the first two games of this series but it is certainly nothing to be jubilant about. The Rockies are in the middle of a very solid run right now but a combination of bad hitting and pitching has hurt this team all season long. The Rockies are hitting .256 on the year, 54th to last in the league and the ERA is at 4.74 which is second to last in the NL. Even with wins in six of the last seven games, Colorado is hitting just .249 over its last 10 games.

I’ve ridden Jonathan Sanchez in his last two starts and there is no reason to let up here. He has allowed two or less runs in his last five starts, posting a 2.18 ERA over that span. Pitching on the road was erratic early on in the season but his last three road starts were solid efforts and one of those was in Colorado where he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings. The Giants have won his last three starts by a combined score of 27-5 so while he has been pitching awesome, the offense has been providing a ton of run support as well.

Greg Reynolds makes his seventh start of the season for the Rockies and it has been a rocky year for the right-hander. He is coming off his second quality outing of the season but he has allowed four runs or more in four of his six starts. Colorado is 3-0 in his three home starts but he has yet to put together two consecutive solid starts so that streak is in big jeopardy here. His WHIP on the season is 1.43 and it is 1.74 over his last three starts so he is going in the wrong direction. Play San Francisco for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Giants +105

Willie Bee · 06-12-08, 11:30 AM

Play Milwaukee Brewers & Houston Astros Under 8½

Game Time: 06/12/2008 02:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

To Houston fans, Milwaukee's Ben Sheets is known as an Astros Killer. And with Brian Moehler pitching well for the home team, this afternoon's contest stays Under.

The Milwaukee Brewers will send the ace of their staff Ben Sheets (6-1, 2.62 ERA) to the hill today to face an inconsistent Houston Astros offense. Sheets is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts vs the Astros this season, and 11-8 along with a stable 3.71 ERA in 26 career appearances in this series.

His Astros pitching opponent Brian Moehler, is coming off his best outing of the season, a seven shutout inning, two-hitter against the Cardinals on Friday. The right-hander has garnered a 2.50 ERA in three home starts this season, and should have another top notch effort today against a Brewers team that, despite a 10-run output last night in a wild win, has been below average this season on offense, averaging just 4.2 RPG on the road while hitting under the Mendoza line.

Look for both hurlers to go deep, and when called upon for both average but capable bullpens to do the same which will help keep this tilt on the low side of the number.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Houston is 21-8 Under against division opponents this season. The Under is 6-1 in the Brewers' last seven when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The Under is 5-0-1 in the Astros' last six after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Under is 5-0-1 in Moehler's last six starts overall.

Free Pick: Brewers-Astros Under 8½ (+100)

Willie Bee · 06-12-08, 11:31 AM

Baltimore Orioles +145 over Red Sox

Game Time: 06/12/2008 06:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Few pitchers have pitched in tougher luck than Jeremy Guthrie, who is 3-6 despite a 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 12 Quality Starts in 14 outings. The O’s have won both of his starts vs. Boston though.

The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox have split the first two games of this series in Fenway Park, but we are looking for the Orioles to take the rubber match at a very nice price.

Jeremy Guthrie has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in all of baseball for the Orioles this season. Guthrie has an excellent 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 90 innings, he has posted six consecutive Quality Starts to give him 12 out of 14 totals starts this year, and yet he is 3-6! Guthrie simply has to start accumulating wins if he continues pitching like he has, and he has allowed three runs or less in all five of his career starts vs. Boston. On a positive note, the Orioles have won both of his starts vs. the Red Sox this year.

Jon Lester is coming off of his best outing since tossing his no-hitter, as he held the Toronto Blue Jays to one run on eight hits in 6.1 innings in his last starts. However, his overall numbers are only on par with Guthrie, and he actually has a slightly worse ERA (3.50) and a significantly worse WHIP (1.37).

Thus, all the value lies with Guthrie at this price, especially with Baltimore also ranking fourth in the American League with a nice 3.19 bullpen ERA.

Free Pick: Orioles +145

Willie Bee · 06-12-08, 11:32 AM

Indians -180 vs. Minnesota Twins

Game Time: 06/12/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Aaron Laffey has been tossing solid ball overall, but especially so at home in Cleveland. Take the Tribe Thursday when the Indians and Minnesota Twins finish their series.

The Tribe wraps up the three-game set with the Twins Thursday evening when Aaron Laffey takes on Livan Hernandez at Progressive Field in Cleveland.

Laffey has been like day-and-night when hurling at home as opposed to on the road this season as evidence by his 1.38 ERA in Cleveland compared to a 5.79 ERA away. Conversely, Hernandez owns a lousy 6.00 ERA on the road, which is more than 1.3 runs higher than that at home in the Metrodome this year.

Look for Laffey to improve to 12-5 in his last 17 teams starts, including four in a row at home, here tonight.

Free Pick: Indians -180