2005 Record: 73-89, 5th in NL Central
Talk about a team with questions and health concerns! The Bad News Bears would be an easier team to project this year whether they had the late Walter Matthau or a live Billy Bob Slingblade on the top step of the dugout.
Aaron Harang should get the #1 starter’s nod for manager Jerry Narron and Co. I like Harang, I really do. But as your staff ace? No, I don’t like him that much. And having missed a spring start already with an achy shoulder, it’s just not a good sign. Filling out the mix behind Harang should be a trio of lefties --- Eric Milton, Brandon Claussen and Dave Williams --- plus righty Paul Wilson. Milton is a loss waiting to happen and he can’t blame his nearly 6½ ERA on the new Amalgamated Incorporated bandbox in Cincy. How bad is it when you’re hoping a pitcher can work his ERA down to the upper 4’s, low 5’s? Wilson is a DL move waiting to happen and, in fact, is coming back from a second major shoulder surgery so he might not even be ready to open ’06. Together, Milton and Wilson are going to chew up over $10 of the Reds’ payroll this season and have thrown all of two-thirds of a spring training inning.
Williams could be an innings eater and Claussen could end up with the top stats of any pitcher on the staff. Compounding the situation is, as weak as the starting five is right now, there’s absolutely nothing behind them if and when another arm is needed. Youngsters Homer Bailey, Raffy Gonzalez and Travis Wood are each at least two years away from the majors. Mike Gosling and Justin Germano are the best bets right now to see spot-start duty or fill a void created by an injury or two.
The bullpen is equally unappetizing at this time and in a bit of flux. David Weathers is currently listed as the closer. But he suffered a finger injury in mid-January just trying to get ready for spring training and has so far been very shaky in spring action. The club would love to see former UH standout Ryan Wagner take the job, but he’s not likely to enter the season with the job. Veteran Kent Mercker is a good fit against lefties, and also a good bet to be dealt at some point during the season. Todd Coffey is actually being considered for closing, so that should tell you how bad things are.
Southpaws Chris Hammond and Brian Shackelford along with right-handers Matt Belisle and Jake Robbins are having decent springs and could work their way into roles from long relief to late innings.
Even without all of the bats staying healthy last season the Reds finished atop the NL in runs scored, the only Senior Circuit crew to top five runs per game. So you have to figure that if they can stay at least relatively healthy this year, Cincinnati’s batting order could make up for some of the perceived shortcomings on the mound.
After dealing Sean Casey to Pittsburgh in the winter, Adam Dunn moves to 1B. He’s my pick to lead the NL in homers. Second base is still a mystery though it looks like veteran Tony Womack, acquired from the Yanks in a trade, is staking a claim to that job as well as the leadoff spot in the lineup with a good spring. Felipe Lopez claimed the shortstop job with a helluva’ 2005 in which he batted .291 with 23 flies. Edwin Encarnacion is on fire this spring and nailing down the hot corner job. Still young, he remains a work in progress at the plate and in the field.
Infield backups include the versatile Ryan Freel, who could also see OF time, plus veterans Scott Hatteberg and Rich Aurilia. Freel’s slow start in March has likely cost him a shot as the Opening Day 2B, but keep your eyes open since Womack is not what you’d call a solid everyday player.
Jason LaRue and Javier Valentin are behind the plate once again. Together they combined for 28 homers a year ago and I look for them to split time about the same once more with LaRue getting having about a 2:1 advantage in games started.
The outfield is a scary bunch, both in terms of potential and a penchant for spending time on the DL. Ken Griffey Jr. is in center flanked by Wily Mo Peña in left and Austin Kearns in right. Junior came back and played more than 120 games for the first time since 2000. His .301 average, .946 OPS and 35 homers landed him Comeback Player of the Year honors. The odds of Griffey repeating 128 games played are far greater than my odds of getting a date with Rachel Hunter.
Kearns is off to a bad start this spring but is still a decent gamble to see increases across his stat lines from the last two seasons when he was hampered by injuries, slumps and possibly too-high expectations. Peña looks to finally get his wish to play everyday. But the question is will it be with the Reds? Rumors are floating that Wily Mo could be sent to the Nationals in return for Alfonso Soriano. If that happens, it does give Soriano his wish to play 2B, and could mean Dunn splits time at first and left with Hatteberg picking up the extra 1B games.
Jacob Cruz is the top candidate right now for the #4 OF slot, along with Freel. The Reds also have veterans Quinton McCracken and Tuffy Rhodes in camp to fill the last OF slot. That should tell you how desperate things really are. If neither makes the roster, and neither should, Chris Denorfia could grab a backup role.
With so many questions on the mound and health concerns, I couldn’t help but rank them last in the NLC at this time. Plus you have a new GM who was late-arriving this offseason. It’s all adds up to a rather unpleasant season for the Reds and their fans.
Key Performer(s): Milton and Wilson. And when they’re your key performers, get ready for a very long season.
Camp Question(s): Second base and the bullpen.
My Play: The Reds will be lucky to win 70 times. The o/u lines I’m seeing are 73-73½, so do your best limbo move and go under.
Talk about a team with questions and health concerns! The Bad News Bears would be an easier team to project this year whether they had the late Walter Matthau or a live Billy Bob Slingblade on the top step of the dugout.
Aaron Harang should get the #1 starter’s nod for manager Jerry Narron and Co. I like Harang, I really do. But as your staff ace? No, I don’t like him that much. And having missed a spring start already with an achy shoulder, it’s just not a good sign. Filling out the mix behind Harang should be a trio of lefties --- Eric Milton, Brandon Claussen and Dave Williams --- plus righty Paul Wilson. Milton is a loss waiting to happen and he can’t blame his nearly 6½ ERA on the new Amalgamated Incorporated bandbox in Cincy. How bad is it when you’re hoping a pitcher can work his ERA down to the upper 4’s, low 5’s? Wilson is a DL move waiting to happen and, in fact, is coming back from a second major shoulder surgery so he might not even be ready to open ’06. Together, Milton and Wilson are going to chew up over $10 of the Reds’ payroll this season and have thrown all of two-thirds of a spring training inning.
Williams could be an innings eater and Claussen could end up with the top stats of any pitcher on the staff. Compounding the situation is, as weak as the starting five is right now, there’s absolutely nothing behind them if and when another arm is needed. Youngsters Homer Bailey, Raffy Gonzalez and Travis Wood are each at least two years away from the majors. Mike Gosling and Justin Germano are the best bets right now to see spot-start duty or fill a void created by an injury or two.
The bullpen is equally unappetizing at this time and in a bit of flux. David Weathers is currently listed as the closer. But he suffered a finger injury in mid-January just trying to get ready for spring training and has so far been very shaky in spring action. The club would love to see former UH standout Ryan Wagner take the job, but he’s not likely to enter the season with the job. Veteran Kent Mercker is a good fit against lefties, and also a good bet to be dealt at some point during the season. Todd Coffey is actually being considered for closing, so that should tell you how bad things are.
Southpaws Chris Hammond and Brian Shackelford along with right-handers Matt Belisle and Jake Robbins are having decent springs and could work their way into roles from long relief to late innings.
Even without all of the bats staying healthy last season the Reds finished atop the NL in runs scored, the only Senior Circuit crew to top five runs per game. So you have to figure that if they can stay at least relatively healthy this year, Cincinnati’s batting order could make up for some of the perceived shortcomings on the mound.
After dealing Sean Casey to Pittsburgh in the winter, Adam Dunn moves to 1B. He’s my pick to lead the NL in homers. Second base is still a mystery though it looks like veteran Tony Womack, acquired from the Yanks in a trade, is staking a claim to that job as well as the leadoff spot in the lineup with a good spring. Felipe Lopez claimed the shortstop job with a helluva’ 2005 in which he batted .291 with 23 flies. Edwin Encarnacion is on fire this spring and nailing down the hot corner job. Still young, he remains a work in progress at the plate and in the field.
Infield backups include the versatile Ryan Freel, who could also see OF time, plus veterans Scott Hatteberg and Rich Aurilia. Freel’s slow start in March has likely cost him a shot as the Opening Day 2B, but keep your eyes open since Womack is not what you’d call a solid everyday player.
Jason LaRue and Javier Valentin are behind the plate once again. Together they combined for 28 homers a year ago and I look for them to split time about the same once more with LaRue getting having about a 2:1 advantage in games started.
The outfield is a scary bunch, both in terms of potential and a penchant for spending time on the DL. Ken Griffey Jr. is in center flanked by Wily Mo Peña in left and Austin Kearns in right. Junior came back and played more than 120 games for the first time since 2000. His .301 average, .946 OPS and 35 homers landed him Comeback Player of the Year honors. The odds of Griffey repeating 128 games played are far greater than my odds of getting a date with Rachel Hunter.
Kearns is off to a bad start this spring but is still a decent gamble to see increases across his stat lines from the last two seasons when he was hampered by injuries, slumps and possibly too-high expectations. Peña looks to finally get his wish to play everyday. But the question is will it be with the Reds? Rumors are floating that Wily Mo could be sent to the Nationals in return for Alfonso Soriano. If that happens, it does give Soriano his wish to play 2B, and could mean Dunn splits time at first and left with Hatteberg picking up the extra 1B games.
Jacob Cruz is the top candidate right now for the #4 OF slot, along with Freel. The Reds also have veterans Quinton McCracken and Tuffy Rhodes in camp to fill the last OF slot. That should tell you how desperate things really are. If neither makes the roster, and neither should, Chris Denorfia could grab a backup role.
With so many questions on the mound and health concerns, I couldn’t help but rank them last in the NLC at this time. Plus you have a new GM who was late-arriving this offseason. It’s all adds up to a rather unpleasant season for the Reds and their fans.
Key Performer(s): Milton and Wilson. And when they’re your key performers, get ready for a very long season.
Camp Question(s): Second base and the bullpen.
My Play: The Reds will be lucky to win 70 times. The o/u lines I’m seeing are 73-73½, so do your best limbo move and go under.
