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2008 MLB Preview: Houston Astros
Houston Astros set to begin new era
For the first time in 19 Opening Days, Houston will take the field without Craig Biggio in uniform. In fact, after a busy winter for new GM Ed Wade, the Astros have many new faces.
With my annual rundown of the Houston Astros comes my annual disclaimer. Yes, I’m a dyed-in-the-wool – or polyester as the case may be – Astros fan. What were originally navy and orange tinted glasses are now red and tan (brick and sand if you’re into the official color scheme). I’ve been to at least one of their games per season since they started playing in 1962, and my best guess is I’ve seen 600+ Astros games in person over the past 46 seasons.
Following a team so intimately has both its pros and cons. On the pro side I’ve been able to maintain contacts with the team over the years and simply know more about the players and the franchise history than I do any other team. The negative side is sometimes your heart gets in the way of your mind, the old “can’t see the forest for the trees” syndrome.
The 2008 season is a new beginning for the club in so many ways. Ed Wade is in his first season as GM. Cecil Cooper will be in his first full season running the show on the field. Gone from the club that won the NL in 2005 are major contributors like Morgan Ensberg and Adam Everett plus relievers Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler.
But while it was strange to look out on the diamond last season and not see Jeff Bagwell, it will be 100 times as weird to not see Craig Biggio in the lineup this season. As the old saying goes, “Out with the old and in with the new.” And after a disappointing showing the past two years, the Astros have nowhere to go but up.
Or do they?
PITCHING
This season, at least in the early going, should be a good time to have the program and scorecard concession at Minute Maid Park, especially when it comes to the pitchers. Just three arms remain from the ’05 NL Pennant winning squad, and all three need to have solid seasons if the Astros are going to have shot at being a playoff contender.
Roy Oswalt, despite his somewhat slightly built frame, is the Big Man on the Mound for the club. Roy O brings seven years of stats into this season that, were he with a team in a bigger market, would have him chatted up as among the top 2-3 arms in the game. As it is, however, Oswalt is almost always lost in those discussions.
The other two arms leftover from the 2005 team are Brandon Backe and southpaw Wandy Rodriguez. Backe is coming back from elbow surgery that limited him to just five starts a year ago. Rodriguez took a step forward in 2007, but will need to show he can pitch well on the road and not just at home.
Veteran Woody Williams, off arguably his worst season ever…no, scratch that, definitely off his worst season ever will be out to turn things around and show he has one more good season left in an arm that has logged over 2,200 major league innings.
Assuming those four are going to break camp in the 1-4 starting slots, it leaves a bunch of arms fighting for the last spot in the rotation. Shawn Chacon was signed just before the start of camp and will be in that mix, but I expect him to become part of the bullpen instead. The pitcher I’m rooting for to claim the fifth spot is Felipe Paulino. Like Backe, Paulino is a converted position player, originally signed by Houston as an outfielder.
Odds are strong I’m not going to get my wish of seeing Paulino open the season at the big league level. Chris Sampson is also in the running and likely penciled in right now ahead of both Paulino and Chacon for the fifth starter’s role. But I will be looking for Paulino and his upper-90s fastball at some point this season.
The Houston bullpen has received a total makeover. Taking over at closer will be Jose Valverde, acquired in a winter trade with Arizona after leading the majors last season with 47 saves. His biggest problem to date has been the inability to string together back-to-back solid seasons, due mostly to health woes.
Setting Valverde up should be Oscar Villarreal, over from Atlanta in another trade, veteran Doug Brocail, who was with the Padres the past two seasons, and Geoff Geary, part of the compensation from the Phillies for Lidge. Mark McLemore might be the lone lefty in the pen this season, but doesn’t really fit into the ‘southpaw specialist’ role you might think. Houston also tagged little left-hander Wesley Wright from the Dodgers in the Rule V draft, and he will be one to watch this spring with his nasty, hard (and very raw) stuff. There has been some one-upmanship between the Dodgers and Astros as far as recent Rule V picks go, so Houston might decide to keep him on the MLB roster this year.
Chacon, Brian Moehler, Dave Borkowski and Chad Paronto also figure into the works.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
As mentioned, not seeing Biggio at second base and batting leadoff is going to take some time to get used to. The Astros at least hope they solved the leadoff hitter part of that by acquiring Michael Bourn from the Phillies in the Lidge trade. A Houston native, Bourn will be expected to set the table and utilize his speed on the bases and in center for the Astros. If he fails, and Lidge re-establishes himself as a premier closer in Philly, Wade’s tenure as GM could be a short one.
Carlos ‘El Caballo’ Lee will be in left with Hunter Pence in right. Both players won their way into the hearts of the fans last year, Lee for his infectious smile and RBI stick and Pence for his all-out hustle and strong play that could go a long way into helping fans ease into Biggio’s retirement.
Non-roster invitee Juan Cruz Jr. and Darin Erstad are getting most of the reserve outfield talk right now. But don’t count out Reggie Abercrombie, Victor Diaz and David Newhan just yet.
Lance Berkman is the only infielder left from Opening Day last year. He’ll be at first with the son of another former Astro, Lance Niekro, inked to a minor league deal as his backup. Across the diamond at third will be Ty Wiggington, acquired for Wheeler from Tampa last season.
The middle of the infield is brand new with Kaz Matsui having the unenviable task of replacing a legend like Biggio at second and Miguel Tejada having an equally unenviable task of avoiding federal prosecution this season. Matsui was brought in to hit in the No. 2 spot after a strong season doing just that with the Rockies last year. And let’s face it: Even a big Biggio fan like me will admit the veteran had lost some range at second, range that Matsui still has.
Primary infield backups should be Geoff Blum, who returns to Houston after playing there in 2002-03, and Mark Loretta, who re-signed in the offseason. Their versatility could allow the Astros to carry an extra pitcher; in other words, their versatility could open up a roster spot for Houston to keep the Rule V pick from LA, Wesley Wright.
Behind the plate will be J.R. Towles with veteran Brad Ausmus backing him up and serving as a mentor to Towles and probably taking on the role of a player/coach.
Key Player(s): Let’s start at the top of the order where Michael Bourn is expected to be. A poor start by Bourn will not only mean shifting Pence back to center and possibly leadoff, meaning Erstad and Cruz Jr. play more (or Berkman moves back to RF with Niekro at 1B), it would also put heat on Wade right out of the gate. The bullpen will have to come together, with Valverde needing to show he can fill a closer’s job for two full seasons in a row. Plus both Backe and Rodriguez have to prop up the rotation behind Oswalt.
Futures: My best-case scenario for Houston is 84-85 wins, but I see them more in the 75-80 win range and fighting with the Cardinals and Reds for the 3-4-5 positions in the NL Central. The Astros are +1000 at 5Dimes to win their division, +2200 to take the NL and +5000 to win the World Series. BetCris opened their win totals with a break at 73½, but that has since been pushed up to 75. The Greek has their O/U mark listed down at 72½ which seems like a good number until you realize they’ve priced the Over on that number at a very chalky -160.
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Originally Posted by willyback
