I just read in michael murray's book about the difference between a pitchers era and expected era (XERA). xera is basically a pitcher's true era because it doesn't take the bullpen into play. the following players had an xera that was significantly higher than their era. there should be some value in fading these players
Mark Buehrle era: 3.12 xera:3.62
Gustavo Chacin era:3.72 xera:4.36
Tom Glavine:era: 3.54 xera: 4.01
Tim Hudson Era:3.52 xera: 4.19
Kyle Lohse era:4.19 xera: 5.03
Kevin Millwod era:2.86 xera: 3.68
Carl Pavano era: 4.77 xera:5.8
Jeff Suppan era:3.57 xera: 4.58
Josh Towers era:3.72 xera: 4.45
Mike Wood era: 4.46 xera: 5.50
typically a pitcher will regress towards his xera the following season.
Mark Buehrle era: 3.12 xera:3.62
Gustavo Chacin era:3.72 xera:4.36
Tom Glavine:era: 3.54 xera: 4.01
Tim Hudson Era:3.52 xera: 4.19
Kyle Lohse era:4.19 xera: 5.03
Kevin Millwod era:2.86 xera: 3.68
Carl Pavano era: 4.77 xera:5.8
Jeff Suppan era:3.57 xera: 4.58
Josh Towers era:3.72 xera: 4.45
Mike Wood era: 4.46 xera: 5.50
typically a pitcher will regress towards his xera the following season.