2005 Record: 90-72, NL East Champs
Since the pitching staff started to really turn over a few seasons ago, the consensus has been Atlanta’s string of NL East titles were over. I’ve picked against them winning that division three straight years only to chow down on a plate of Georgia crow each time. You’d think I would’ve learned by now. But I haven’t.
The team that won its 11th-consecutive NLE crown and made its 14th-straight trip to the postseason in 2005 is not that different than the one entering camp for this campaign. They have the same manager at the helm in Bobby Cox and the same front office that has displayed the uncanny ability to sign the right free agents as well as develop their own solid talent. So why pick against them, you might ask?
Three words: Rockin’ Leo Mazzone. Losing an assistant coach shouldn’t have that much bearing on a team. And the Braves’ questions this year go deeper than just a new pitching guru. But Mazzone’s importance to the changing staff, especially the past few years, can’t be stressed enough. If Mazzone was still there I would fully expect him and Cox to sift through their bullpen and make it work. But until I see how new coach Roger McDowell and Cox work it out, it’s a huge question mark in my mind.
Veterans like John Smoltz and even Tim Hudson to a lesser degree probably won’t be affected that much. There are some issues surrounding Smoltz’ health and stamina now that he’s nearing 40, and while Hudson’s 2005 numbers weren’t that bad, he still fell a little short of expectations, plus he too has some health concerns to get past.
John Thomson is another veteran who may not miss Mazzone’s guidance. But the jury is certainly out on both Jorge Sosa and Horacio Ramirez. This is one season that Atlanta could definitely use a healthy Mike Hampton for their rotation. But Hampy is lost until 2007 (partly because the Braves are filing an insurance claim). The best starter Atlanta has in reserve right now is Kyle Davies who had a few moments of flash in ‘05.
The few concerns in the rotation at this time pale in comparison to the unknown’s in the pen. Entering camp with Chris Reitsma as your closer simply can’t promote warm-fuzzies for Braves fans. Reitsma isn’t a bad pitcher, and he’s had spells of solid relief work in the past. He certainly can't be worse than Dan Kolb who failed miserably in 2005. The good news is Atlanta has some solid young arms to possibly fall back on. Joey Devine, Anthony Lerew, Blaine Boyer and Oscar Villareal (if 100%) are names many fans probably don’t recognize, and that could change by October. But I’d still feel better if Mazzone was there to nurture them along. Macay McBride, Mike Remlinger and John Foster are the top candidates for southpaw relief. A trade for another quality reliever, with the Braves possibly dangling talented young Wilson Betemit, remains a strong possibility.
The biggest concerns on offense are whether youngsters Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann, Ryan Langerhans and Adam LaRoche can continue to grow. All four could even slide back a bit and it wouldn't be the end of the world. If Francoeur or Langerhans slips, Atlanta has Kelly Johnson behind them for insurance. Scott Thorman, the Braves’ top pick in 2000, could also start to push LaRoche at first. McCann might be the key in the group since backstop backup is a bit thin (Todd Pratt) and minor league help (Jarrod Saltalamacchia) is still a year or two away.
Veteran returnees Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones and Marcus Giles are joined this season by winter acquisition Edgar Renteria who I look for more out of than what he gave Boston in ’05. Cox won’t make the same mistake Red Sox manager Terry Francona did expecting Renteria to be a force in the 2-hole of the order. Assuming that quartet remains healthy, they are the real strength of this club entering camp.
Atlanta has earned the right to be the NL East favorite. At the very least, they’ve got to be considered a very solid playoff contender. But being so pitching conscious, all of the uncertainties on their mound have me thinking another NL East title is just out of reach this time. If I’m wrong, no big whoop since I’ve developed quite a few recipes for crow over the years.
Key Performer(s): The bullpen and all those sophomore position players.
Camp Question(s): Determining all of the relief roles, especially closer.
My Play: The math says 90 wins, a figure that could easily go higher if the bullpen answers the call. With 89½ the futures line at Pinnacle, and given the history of this club, the over looks pretty good even if the bullpen scares the you-know-what out of me at the moment.
Since the pitching staff started to really turn over a few seasons ago, the consensus has been Atlanta’s string of NL East titles were over. I’ve picked against them winning that division three straight years only to chow down on a plate of Georgia crow each time. You’d think I would’ve learned by now. But I haven’t.
The team that won its 11th-consecutive NLE crown and made its 14th-straight trip to the postseason in 2005 is not that different than the one entering camp for this campaign. They have the same manager at the helm in Bobby Cox and the same front office that has displayed the uncanny ability to sign the right free agents as well as develop their own solid talent. So why pick against them, you might ask?
Three words: Rockin’ Leo Mazzone. Losing an assistant coach shouldn’t have that much bearing on a team. And the Braves’ questions this year go deeper than just a new pitching guru. But Mazzone’s importance to the changing staff, especially the past few years, can’t be stressed enough. If Mazzone was still there I would fully expect him and Cox to sift through their bullpen and make it work. But until I see how new coach Roger McDowell and Cox work it out, it’s a huge question mark in my mind.
Veterans like John Smoltz and even Tim Hudson to a lesser degree probably won’t be affected that much. There are some issues surrounding Smoltz’ health and stamina now that he’s nearing 40, and while Hudson’s 2005 numbers weren’t that bad, he still fell a little short of expectations, plus he too has some health concerns to get past.
John Thomson is another veteran who may not miss Mazzone’s guidance. But the jury is certainly out on both Jorge Sosa and Horacio Ramirez. This is one season that Atlanta could definitely use a healthy Mike Hampton for their rotation. But Hampy is lost until 2007 (partly because the Braves are filing an insurance claim). The best starter Atlanta has in reserve right now is Kyle Davies who had a few moments of flash in ‘05.
The few concerns in the rotation at this time pale in comparison to the unknown’s in the pen. Entering camp with Chris Reitsma as your closer simply can’t promote warm-fuzzies for Braves fans. Reitsma isn’t a bad pitcher, and he’s had spells of solid relief work in the past. He certainly can't be worse than Dan Kolb who failed miserably in 2005. The good news is Atlanta has some solid young arms to possibly fall back on. Joey Devine, Anthony Lerew, Blaine Boyer and Oscar Villareal (if 100%) are names many fans probably don’t recognize, and that could change by October. But I’d still feel better if Mazzone was there to nurture them along. Macay McBride, Mike Remlinger and John Foster are the top candidates for southpaw relief. A trade for another quality reliever, with the Braves possibly dangling talented young Wilson Betemit, remains a strong possibility.
The biggest concerns on offense are whether youngsters Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann, Ryan Langerhans and Adam LaRoche can continue to grow. All four could even slide back a bit and it wouldn't be the end of the world. If Francoeur or Langerhans slips, Atlanta has Kelly Johnson behind them for insurance. Scott Thorman, the Braves’ top pick in 2000, could also start to push LaRoche at first. McCann might be the key in the group since backstop backup is a bit thin (Todd Pratt) and minor league help (Jarrod Saltalamacchia) is still a year or two away.
Veteran returnees Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones and Marcus Giles are joined this season by winter acquisition Edgar Renteria who I look for more out of than what he gave Boston in ’05. Cox won’t make the same mistake Red Sox manager Terry Francona did expecting Renteria to be a force in the 2-hole of the order. Assuming that quartet remains healthy, they are the real strength of this club entering camp.
Atlanta has earned the right to be the NL East favorite. At the very least, they’ve got to be considered a very solid playoff contender. But being so pitching conscious, all of the uncertainties on their mound have me thinking another NL East title is just out of reach this time. If I’m wrong, no big whoop since I’ve developed quite a few recipes for crow over the years.
Key Performer(s): The bullpen and all those sophomore position players.
Camp Question(s): Determining all of the relief roles, especially closer.
My Play: The math says 90 wins, a figure that could easily go higher if the bullpen answers the call. With 89½ the futures line at Pinnacle, and given the history of this club, the over looks pretty good even if the bullpen scares the you-know-what out of me at the moment.
