2006 Preview - St. Louis Cardinals

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    2006 Preview - St. Louis Cardinals
    2005 Record: 100-62, NL Central Champs

    Teams that seemed to have destiny on their sides have kept the Cardinals from reaching their final goal the past two seasons. Embarrassed by a sweep at the hands of Boston in the 2004 World Series and ousted by Houston in the NLCS last year, St. Louis could very well be ready to take that next step in 2006.

    St. Louis returns four of its five starters from a year ago led by NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter. Both Mark Mulder and Jason Marquis are the right age to improve, especially Marquis who can also help himself with the bat. Jeff Suppan has really bought into pitching coach Dave Duncan’s approach and there’s no reason to suspect he’ll suffer a drop-off in ’06.

    The newcomer, and a real crapshoot in so many ways, is Sydney Ponson. After growing fat and lazy from a bloated contract with the Orioles, Ponson really has a lot to prove this year or he’ll be spending the rest of his days drinking Piña Coladas and getting into scrapes with the law --- And the judges who administer that law --- at home in the Caribbean. The good news is if Ponson doesn’t come around, St. Louis has a very capable replacement in Anthony Reyes. With past elbow woes it’s doubtful that the Redbirds want to entertain the idea of using Reyes in relief. So it’s possible that Duncan and La Russa stick Reyes at the end of an incredibly deep rotation and settle on Ponson as a middle reliever, a la what they did with Cal Eldred.

    Speaking of the bullpen, Jason Isringhausen, himself no stranger to the trainer’s table, is back in the closer’s slot where he’ll see a relatively new group preceding his 9th-inning chores. Braden Looper came over from the Mets and assumes the setup role previously manned by Julian ‘Crazy Horse’ Tavarez who departed for Beantown. Brad Thompson, whose excellent ’05 work went unnoticed by many, also sets up. Ricardo Rincon has the most experience of any lefty reliever coming to camp with St. Louis, but I really like both Randy Flores and Tyler Johnson. At least one of them will make the squad and could send Rincon to the waiver wire at some point. Veteran Jeff Nelson is another newcomer to the staff and, if he shows anything this spring, he should get a job.

    Hey, hey, hey! The offense is led by Phat Albert! One of the most incredible talents I’ve seen in 40-odd years watching this silly game, Albert Pujols broke my heart while I was sitting in the Crawford Boxes at Arthur Andersen Memorial Stadium in Houston for Game 5 of last year’s NLCS. I can’t help but think he will continue to break records with each passing season. With Scott Rolen back across the diamond this season and Jim Edmonds in center, it’s a formidable trio. Rolen’s back is a concern and Edmonds isn’t getting any younger, so they’re crucial to the success of Pujols and the Cards.

    Little David Eckstein is amazing and difficult not to root for. He’s like Tanner from the Bad News Bears, but without the attitude. Yadier Molina, one of the Amazing Molina Backstop Brothers, seems poised to improve offensively and just might be the best defensive catcher in the Senior Circuit already at only 23 years of age.

    In their first years wearing Missouri Red are outfielders Juan Encarnacion and Larry Bigbie, along with second baseman Junior Spivey. Encarnacion effectively replaces retired Canuck Larry Walker in right, both defensively and offensively. He’s never realized the potential I saw for him years ago, but I do look for a solid season. Bigbie and Spivey? I’m not sold on either. But considering names like So Taguchi, John Rodriguez and Aaron Miles are their competition for the LF-2B jobs, Bigbie and Spivey are the favorites entering spring. One player to watch is Deivi Cruz who could take the 2B job, especially once Spivey makes his annual trip to the DL.

    With more wins (205) than any MLB team the past two years, St. Louis has to be the heavy favorite in the NL Central once again in 2006. They may not win it going away as the previous two seasons, but they will win it.

    Key Performer(s): Pujols is the man, but Rolen and Edmonds hold the keys to a 3rd-straight October appearance.

    Camp Question(s): Can Duncan do anything with Ponson and how will a reshaped bullpen pan out?

    My Play: My chart puts St. Louis at 94 wins. That inches up depending on spring news regarding Rolen’s back and Ponson’s mindset. I'll play the over 93.5 (-108).
    Last edited by Willie Bee; 02-17-06, 01:46 PM.
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    the cardnails talent level really went down from last year. they lost a alot of role players, and replaced them with a bunch of washed up retreads.
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      I agree to a certain degree, BBD. Encarnacion is ok to replace Walker, Looper will replace Tavarez and Ponson is not a bad or expensive gamble (especially with Reyes in reserve).

      But where I feel the Cards really screwed the pooch was in not bringing back Grudzielanek and/or Sanders and thinking that Spivey and Bigbie are effective replacements at those two slots. But St. Louis has been pretty smart about players in the past I thought were silly signings.

      If I'm a Cardinals fan, however, I'd be more concerned with a farm system that really doesn't have much to offer for this year (and maybe 2006 as well). Tyler Greene, their #1 pick from GaTech in 2005, is still a year or two or three away, and he will be a solid replacement at short for Eckstein since Greene is solid with the glove and has the potential for more offense, especially more power. Colby Rasmus was another 1st-rounder in '05 (some might recall the name from the Little League World Series in 1999), and he is an exceptional athlete though coming out of high school suggests he is at least two years away, if not more. And Adam Wainwright might be the best arm they have behind Anthony Reyes. He's also another former 1st-round pick, though not by St. Louis (came over from ATL in the deal a couple of years back that sent JD Drew to the Braves).

      But they really have little on the farm that's truly close to being MLB ready at this time.
      Comment
      • ORO1960
        SBR Hustler
        • 02-13-06
        • 71

        #4
        the cardinals wont be as good but there still the best in that division. wild card wont come from the central this time.
        Comment
        • SBR_John
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-12-05
          • 16471

          #5
          the cardinals wont be as good but there still the best in that division. wild card wont come from the central this time.
          I think ORO did a Vulcan mind scan on me because thats exactly my thought. 93.5 looks right on the money to me.
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Well, I do have them at 94 currently (since my projection formula doesn't calculate half-wins). That would be a slight drop from last year so maybe the Vulcan thing is working on several of us

            Have to agree that something needs to give way in the NL East for an NL Central team to take the wildcard this time.
            Comment
            • Willie Bee
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-14-06
              • 15726

              #7
              Little piece on Ponson from USA Today...

              Chuck Johnson / USA Today
              "This is a second chance for me, and I'm going to take full advantage of it," says Ponson, who signed a one-year contract with the Cardinals on Dec. 21, just hours after serving a five-day jail sentence for driving under the influence. He subsequently admitted himself into an alcohol rehabilitation program.

              "I decided to get help, and I'm happy I did," he says. "It was my decision. Now I know I'm not going to drink anymore."
              Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 05-15-15, 04:49 PM. Reason: image does not exist
              Comment
              • bigboydan
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 08-10-05
                • 55420

                #8
                he's getting his second chance here. although, i still think he will screw it up somehow IMO
                Comment
                • Willie Bee
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-14-06
                  • 15726

                  #9
                  Greek's break is 92½ with o(-105) and u(-115).

                  Pinny has dropped their mark a game to 92½ since I first did the preview - o(+104) and u(-120).
                  Comment
                  • Willie Bee
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-14-06
                    • 15726

                    #10
                    The win total remains the same at Pinnacle over the weekend (92½), but the price line has moved pretty good. The over is now -116 with the under even (100).
                    Comment
                    • Willie Bee
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-14-06
                      • 15726

                      #11
                      Current record 35-21

                      My Play: My chart puts St. Louis at 94 wins. That inches up depending on spring news regarding Rolen’s back and Ponson’s mindset. I'll play the over 93.5 (-108).
                      The Redbirds are on pace for 101+ wins, though that could change quick with Albert Pujols now out of action with a strained oblique. Pujols could miss anywhere from two weeks to more than a month.

                      While the offense has been solid, it hasn't been as dominant as you might think. Their 285 runs rank fifth in the NL with the 55 team homers, 25 of them off the bat of Pujols, ranking 10th. They haven't made up for the lower HR totals on the bases, stealing just 24 of 39 so far. And the defense has been good, but not great. Scott Rolen and David Eckstein join Pujols as regulars hitting better than .300. So Taguchi, Hector Luna and John Rodriguez have done decent jobs as well.

                      Yadier Molina finally has his batting average over .200, but he is playing solid defense behind the plate. Juan Encarnacion has been a bust for all intents and purposes, hitting less than .250 with a 35:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If Pujols is going to be out more than two weeks with his injury, rumors are slowly building that St. Louis could go shopping for another bat to plug into the mix.

                      The pitching staff has been very good, with their 3.78 ERA ranking first in the National League and the 232 total runs allowed the lowest in the Senior Circuit. Chris Carpenter was cooking along nicely before back pains pushed him to the DL. He should return this week. Sydney Ponson also missed a few starts on the DL, but has pitched well otherwise. The rest of the rotation --- Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan --- has looked brilliant on occasion, but also struggled terribly at times.

                      The bullpen has been very strong with Jason Isringhausen leading the NL with 18 saves and backed nicely by the middle-inning and setup arms belonging to Adam Wainwright, Brad Thompson, Braden Looper and Josh Hancock.

                      St. Louis got off to a bit of a slow start, sitting 5-5 on April 14th and then hitting a 4-game skid to open May when they were swept in a pair of mini, 2-game series on the road in Cincinnati and Houston. With a 14-14 record within the NL Central so far, they will get a chance to improve upon that in their next three series versus the Reds and then on the road against the Brewers and Pirates. After a 3-game set at home against the Rockies, the Cardinals will travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox in what many predicted to be this season's World Series matchup before the season started. They will finish up their interleague series after that in Detroit and then home against the Indians and Royals. Their last seven games before the All-Star break are on the road in Atlanta and Houston.
                      Comment
                      • Illusion
                        Restricted User
                        • 08-09-05
                        • 25166

                        #12
                        100 wins is out of the question, but I still think they hit 91-92
                        Comment
                        • d2bets
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 08-10-05
                          • 39990

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Willie Bee
                          The Redbirds are on pace for 101+ wins, though that could change quick with Albert Pujols now out of action with a strained oblique. Pujols could miss anywhere from two weeks to more than a month.

                          While the offense has been solid, it hasn't been as dominant as you might think. Their 285 runs rank fifth in the NL with the 55 team homers, 25 of them off the bat of Pujols, ranking 10th. They haven't made up for the lower HR totals on the bases, stealing just 24 of 39 so far. And the defense has been good, but not great. Scott Rolen and David Eckstein join Pujols as regulars hitting better than .300. So Taguchi, Hector Luna and John Rodriguez have done decent jobs as well.

                          Yadier Molina finally has his batting average over .200, but he is playing solid defense behind the plate. Juan Encarnacion has been a bust for all intents and purposes, hitting less than .250 with a 35:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If Pujols is going to be out more than two weeks with his injury, rumors are slowly building that St. Louis could go shopping for another bat to plug into the mix.

                          The pitching staff has been very good, with their 3.78 ERA ranking first in the National League and the 232 total runs allowed the lowest in the Senior Circuit. Chris Carpenter was cooking along nicely before back pains pushed him to the DL. He should return this week. Sydney Ponson also missed a few starts on the DL, but has pitched well otherwise. The rest of the rotation --- Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan --- has looked brilliant on occasion, but also struggled terribly at times.

                          The bullpen has been very strong with Jason Isringhausen leading the NL with 18 saves and backed nicely by the middle-inning and setup arms belonging to Adam Wainwright, Brad Thompson, Braden Looper and Josh Hancock.

                          St. Louis got off to a bit of a slow start, sitting 5-5 on April 14th and then hitting a 4-game skid to open May when they were swept in a pair of mini, 2-game series on the road in Cincinnati and Houston. With a 14-14 record within the NL Central so far, they will get a chance to improve upon that in their next three series versus the Reds and then on the road against the Brewers and Pirates. After a 3-game set at home against the Rockies, the Cardinals will travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox in what many predicted to be this season's World Series matchup before the season started. They will finish up their interleague series after that in Detroit and then home against the Indians and Royals. Their last seven games before the All-Star break are on the road in Atlanta and Houston.
                          Isringhausen may have 18 saves but he also has 4 blown saves, 3 losses, an ERA almost 4 and his walk total equals his innings pitched-- not a good formular for a closer. I wouldn't call that strong.
                          Comment
                          • Willie Bee
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-14-06
                            • 15726

                            #14
                            Good points about Jason Isringhausen. However, I noted that the bullpen as a group was strong, not Izzy by himself.

                            Can't explain his increased walks other than to say he's gotten better in that category since April when he walked 10 of the 45 batters he faced. He had one really bad game at Wrigley early on when one of the blown saves and one of the losses were grouped together. Another of the losses came in an extra inning affair to Milwaukee in mid-April when Carlos Lee took him deep in the 11th. Lee has done that 18 other times this year, so Isringhausen isn't alone. A third blown save should at least be half-credited to Scott Rolen's fielding last weekend against the Cubs. And the fourth blown save was eventually converted to a win against the Pirates. He's allowed one earned run since that blown save to Pittsburgh on April 26th, and he's given up just eight hits to the last 60+ batters he's faced.
                            Comment
                            • bigboydan
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 08-10-05
                              • 55420

                              #15
                              there is talk about looper being the closer, if izzy has one more bad outing.

                              the is the time for the cards could catch a losing streak with there injuries mounting up right now.
                              Comment
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