Having followed the team as a fan since its inception in 1962, I find myself still in a bit of a celebratory mood after winning the NL Pennant in 2005 and going to the World Series for the first time. There’s nothing more I would rather see than Houston repeating atop the National League and finally winning a championship. But the realist in me simply can’t pick the Astros to do that with all of the question marks surrounding the club after its greatest season ever turned a bit sour in the winter, leaving me thinking that third in the NL Central might be their ultimate destination this time.
The reality is it took comebacks on a large scale to get the club into the postseason the past two years. Considering the roster had at least three bona fide Hall of Famers in 2004-05, and that two of those stars, Jeff Bagwell and Roger Clemens, are very much in limbo right now, it will take several young players stepping up with career years to keep Houston playing past Oct. 1 this year. Granted, Bagwell was not a force in the Astros’ 2005 surge, and the team was but 15-17 in the 32 starts Clemens made despite his stellar 1.87 ERA. So it certainly isn’t a stretch for the team to do just as well as they have in their two NL Wildcard runs.
One thing that should help is having Lance Berkman in the lineup from the get-go. Berkman missed the first five weeks of 2005 following an off season knee injury. He had a little cleanup on the knee this winter and all reports are he will miss some action in spring and be ready for Opening Day. Assuming Bagwell doesn’t return, Berkman will move from the outfield to first base. Joining him on the right side of the infield at 2B is the original ‘Killer B’ Craig Biggio who enters his 19th season with Houston. Bidge is coming off a career high in homers, but his range at second is a serious question on defense and compounded by the fact he is shooting for the 3,000-hit plateau meaning it could be harder than ever for manager Phil Garner to get Biggio to take a day off.
The left side of the infield finds Morgan Ensberg at third and Adam Everett at short. Ensberg is in the lineup for his bat while Everett is there for defense, and neither can afford to fail in those areas if the Astros are to contend.
Preston Wilson was signed to try and add some punch to what was a fairly impotent attack in ’05. He’s penciled in for left field now with speedy Willy Taveras in center and Jason Lane in right. Both Taveras and Lane need to build on their 2005 numbers.
Even without Clemens, Houston has a formidable 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation in Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte. I’ve got Roy O down as a solid frontrunner for the NL Cy Young. And it goes without saying that the Astros can ill-afford either Oswalt or Pettitte to miss a beat in 2006. Brandon Backe enters spring as the #3 man, and he needs to translate some of his postseason success to the regular campaign. Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio are the 4-5 arms in the rotation for now, but one or the other could be pushed out of the order by strong springs from Jason Hirsh or Fernando Nieve.
Brad Lidge, the subject of a couple of trade rumors this winter, is the closer with Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler his primary setup arms. They will need to repeat their strong 2005 efforts plus get help from at least one other member of the pen such as Russ Springer, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller or one of the starting candidates who fails to crack the rotation and isn’t sent down to Triple-A.
Key Performer(s): The back of the rotation --- Backe, Rodriguez and Astacio --- plus Ensberg having a second consecutive strong year with his stick
Camp Question(s): Resolving the Bagwell and Clemens situations are huge questions to be answered.
My Play: Under 83.5
The reality is it took comebacks on a large scale to get the club into the postseason the past two years. Considering the roster had at least three bona fide Hall of Famers in 2004-05, and that two of those stars, Jeff Bagwell and Roger Clemens, are very much in limbo right now, it will take several young players stepping up with career years to keep Houston playing past Oct. 1 this year. Granted, Bagwell was not a force in the Astros’ 2005 surge, and the team was but 15-17 in the 32 starts Clemens made despite his stellar 1.87 ERA. So it certainly isn’t a stretch for the team to do just as well as they have in their two NL Wildcard runs.
One thing that should help is having Lance Berkman in the lineup from the get-go. Berkman missed the first five weeks of 2005 following an off season knee injury. He had a little cleanup on the knee this winter and all reports are he will miss some action in spring and be ready for Opening Day. Assuming Bagwell doesn’t return, Berkman will move from the outfield to first base. Joining him on the right side of the infield at 2B is the original ‘Killer B’ Craig Biggio who enters his 19th season with Houston. Bidge is coming off a career high in homers, but his range at second is a serious question on defense and compounded by the fact he is shooting for the 3,000-hit plateau meaning it could be harder than ever for manager Phil Garner to get Biggio to take a day off.
The left side of the infield finds Morgan Ensberg at third and Adam Everett at short. Ensberg is in the lineup for his bat while Everett is there for defense, and neither can afford to fail in those areas if the Astros are to contend.
Preston Wilson was signed to try and add some punch to what was a fairly impotent attack in ’05. He’s penciled in for left field now with speedy Willy Taveras in center and Jason Lane in right. Both Taveras and Lane need to build on their 2005 numbers.
Even without Clemens, Houston has a formidable 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation in Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte. I’ve got Roy O down as a solid frontrunner for the NL Cy Young. And it goes without saying that the Astros can ill-afford either Oswalt or Pettitte to miss a beat in 2006. Brandon Backe enters spring as the #3 man, and he needs to translate some of his postseason success to the regular campaign. Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio are the 4-5 arms in the rotation for now, but one or the other could be pushed out of the order by strong springs from Jason Hirsh or Fernando Nieve.
Brad Lidge, the subject of a couple of trade rumors this winter, is the closer with Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler his primary setup arms. They will need to repeat their strong 2005 efforts plus get help from at least one other member of the pen such as Russ Springer, Mike Gallo, Trever Miller or one of the starting candidates who fails to crack the rotation and isn’t sent down to Triple-A.
Key Performer(s): The back of the rotation --- Backe, Rodriguez and Astacio --- plus Ensberg having a second consecutive strong year with his stick
Camp Question(s): Resolving the Bagwell and Clemens situations are huge questions to be answered.
My Play: Under 83.5
, I'd hug the over.