MLB Odds: All-Star Game Betting Preview
If the National League is going to break its losing streak tonight in Anaheim, the winning effort will begin with Ubaldo Jimenez shutting down the American League lineup.
1996. Then-President Bill Clinton was busy battling Bob Dole for a return trip to the White House. Beck’s Odelay was Album of the Year, while Spice Girls’ Wannabe was the top single on the charts. Independence Day was the year’s highest grossing film. Sprinter Michael Johnson won double gold at the Atlanta Olympics.
It was the also the last time the National League won the MLB All-Star Game.
To no one’s surprise, the NL is dogged on the baseball betting odds board for Tuesday night’s Midsummer Classic (8 p.m. ET, FOX) against the American League at Angel Stadium in Anaheim.
After all, the Senior Circuit is winless in 14 years at the All-Star Game. The last time it won, the game was played at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, Barry Bonds sported a normal hat size, and Mike Piazza was the MVP in a 6-0 victory for the NL.
It’s been a long time for the NL, which holds a 40-38-2 lifetime All-Star Game record against its junior partners, but has fallen behind the AL in terms of overall talent in recent years.
Thing is, the NL’s been closing the gap over the last handful of seasons, or in another vein, the AL’s losing its edge. The NL usually has a better pitching staff, and this year is no exception.
Eventually the NL is going to break the skid, and considering it’s as much as a +115 moneyline underdog, the slim value is with it on Tuesday night.
Oddsmakers have the AL listed between -115 and -125 depending on the outlet, and we advise you to shop around before making an All-Star wager. One offshore venue actually had the NL as -120 chalk as of press, so there’s an attempt (at least by some sportsbooks) to buck the trend.
The sharpest play is on the ‘under’ for the 8½-run total available across the board. Good pitching tends to trump good hitting, and the All-Star Game has played out that way recently.
The AL won 4-3 last year at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, as Carl Crawford took home MVP honors. The game played ‘under’ the nine-run total to continue the low-scoring trend that’s marked the Midsummer Classic since 2006.
Two years ago at Yankee Stadium, the game played ‘under’ the 9½-run total in a 4-3 win for the AL. In 2007 at AT&T Park, the teams delivered a push on the nine-run number (AL, 5-4), while in 2006, the All-Star Game cashed the ‘under’ at PNC Park (AL, 3-2).
The AL is the big brother, but the NL is catching up. Five of the last seven All-Star Games have been decided by one run, with another decided by two runs. The only relative runaway payday for the AL during the stretch came in 2004, when it downed the NL 9-4.
What’s happening? Mostly, the game isn’t as hitter-friendly as it was back before there was testing for performance-enhancers. Big league clubs, while still relying more on power than in the 1980’s, have gravitated towards a focus on pitching and defense. This is to the NL’s advantage.
Additionally, a look at this year’s lineups reveals a wash. The AL probably has some more pop, but the differences are marginal with Justin Morneau (concussion) out of the game.
The NL’s staff is stacked, too. The AL has some nice arms in Cliff Lee, Andy Pettitte, and David Price, but the NL is throwing out Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Josh Johnson on Tuesday night. Pretty good when you can leave Johan Santana at home.
Don’t forget about the myriad props out there, either. There are some duds waiting to happen, so assess accordingly. Don’t bet on someone to steal home on Tuesday night.
If you’re willing to settle for a smaller payday than you’d get from say, Ryan Howard running over the catcher, there’s some value. I like the ‘yes’ to a ground-rule double at +175, and the ‘over’ on the 3.5 number for total double plays. The ‘yes’ on the “will there be a diving catch?” prop provides a +155 return.
Thinking outside the box is also rewarded. New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is listed as a slight spread favorite (-0.5) to throw more touchdown passes in Week 1 than the number of total home runs in this year’s All-Star Game.
If the National League is going to break its losing streak tonight in Anaheim, the winning effort will begin with Ubaldo Jimenez shutting down the American League lineup.
1996. Then-President Bill Clinton was busy battling Bob Dole for a return trip to the White House. Beck’s Odelay was Album of the Year, while Spice Girls’ Wannabe was the top single on the charts. Independence Day was the year’s highest grossing film. Sprinter Michael Johnson won double gold at the Atlanta Olympics.
It was the also the last time the National League won the MLB All-Star Game.
To no one’s surprise, the NL is dogged on the baseball betting odds board for Tuesday night’s Midsummer Classic (8 p.m. ET, FOX) against the American League at Angel Stadium in Anaheim.
After all, the Senior Circuit is winless in 14 years at the All-Star Game. The last time it won, the game was played at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, Barry Bonds sported a normal hat size, and Mike Piazza was the MVP in a 6-0 victory for the NL.
It’s been a long time for the NL, which holds a 40-38-2 lifetime All-Star Game record against its junior partners, but has fallen behind the AL in terms of overall talent in recent years.
Thing is, the NL’s been closing the gap over the last handful of seasons, or in another vein, the AL’s losing its edge. The NL usually has a better pitching staff, and this year is no exception.
Eventually the NL is going to break the skid, and considering it’s as much as a +115 moneyline underdog, the slim value is with it on Tuesday night.
Oddsmakers have the AL listed between -115 and -125 depending on the outlet, and we advise you to shop around before making an All-Star wager. One offshore venue actually had the NL as -120 chalk as of press, so there’s an attempt (at least by some sportsbooks) to buck the trend.
The sharpest play is on the ‘under’ for the 8½-run total available across the board. Good pitching tends to trump good hitting, and the All-Star Game has played out that way recently.
The AL won 4-3 last year at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, as Carl Crawford took home MVP honors. The game played ‘under’ the nine-run total to continue the low-scoring trend that’s marked the Midsummer Classic since 2006.
Two years ago at Yankee Stadium, the game played ‘under’ the 9½-run total in a 4-3 win for the AL. In 2007 at AT&T Park, the teams delivered a push on the nine-run number (AL, 5-4), while in 2006, the All-Star Game cashed the ‘under’ at PNC Park (AL, 3-2).
The AL is the big brother, but the NL is catching up. Five of the last seven All-Star Games have been decided by one run, with another decided by two runs. The only relative runaway payday for the AL during the stretch came in 2004, when it downed the NL 9-4.
What’s happening? Mostly, the game isn’t as hitter-friendly as it was back before there was testing for performance-enhancers. Big league clubs, while still relying more on power than in the 1980’s, have gravitated towards a focus on pitching and defense. This is to the NL’s advantage.
Additionally, a look at this year’s lineups reveals a wash. The AL probably has some more pop, but the differences are marginal with Justin Morneau (concussion) out of the game.
The NL’s staff is stacked, too. The AL has some nice arms in Cliff Lee, Andy Pettitte, and David Price, but the NL is throwing out Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Josh Johnson on Tuesday night. Pretty good when you can leave Johan Santana at home.
Don’t forget about the myriad props out there, either. There are some duds waiting to happen, so assess accordingly. Don’t bet on someone to steal home on Tuesday night.
If you’re willing to settle for a smaller payday than you’d get from say, Ryan Howard running over the catcher, there’s some value. I like the ‘yes’ to a ground-rule double at +175, and the ‘over’ on the 3.5 number for total double plays. The ‘yes’ on the “will there be a diving catch?” prop provides a +155 return.
Thinking outside the box is also rewarded. New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is listed as a slight spread favorite (-0.5) to throw more touchdown passes in Week 1 than the number of total home runs in this year’s All-Star Game.