Further Proof that Pitching Wins

[stevenash]

The 2022 MLB regular season has ended.
And here are the facts.

Eight of the top ten ranked overall team pitching staffs are playoff teams.
Eight of the top ten ranked team starting pitching staffs are playoff teams.
Seven of the top ten ranked bullpens are also playoff teams.

Oh sure every now and then a team with superior hitting and poor to mediocre pitching staffs will win the World Series, it happens on occasions, but that's the exception, not the rule.

Go ahead, look carefully at all the team rosters that have won the World Series in the past quarter century, tell me how many of those teams had the superior pitching?

Like it or not, the measuring stick so to speak, used in today's day and age that ranks pitching staffs is the Fan Graphs TEAM WAR metric.
The following tables presented below are ranked by TEAM WAR. (on the far right)

Overall post season team pitching staffs and their rankings.

Rank	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA		WAR
1	HOU	106	56	53	642	162	1445.1	9.49	2.85	0.83	2.9		27
2	LAD	111	51	43	725	162	1451.1	9.08	2.52	0.94	2.8		24.6
3	ATL	101	61	55	680	162	1448	9.66	3.11	0.92	3.46		22.8
4	PHI	87	75	42	678	162	1428.1	8.97	2.92	0.95	3.98		22.6
5	NYM	101	61	41	645	162	1438.2	9.79	2.68	1.06	3.58		20.3
7	NYY	99	63	47	669	162	1451.2	9.05	2.75	0.97	3.3		19.6
8	SDP	89	73	48	649	162	1443.1	9.05	2.92	1.08	3.81		19.3
9	CLE	92	70	51	669	162	1456	8.59	2.69	1.06	3.47		18.6
12	TOR	92	70	46	746	162	1441.1	8.68	2.65	1.12	3.89		17
13	TBR	86	76	44	734	162	1435.2	8.68	2.41	1.08	3.41		16.5
16	SEA	90	72	40	698	162	1447	8.65	2.78	1.16	3.59		13.8
17	STL	93	69	37	628	162	1435.2	7.38	3.07	0.92	3.79		13.3

Starting pitching staffs and their rankings

Rank	Team	W	L	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA		WAR
1	HOU	84	39	162	162	950	8.99	2.56	0.93	2.95		19.5
2	PHI	59	47	162	162	896.2	8.5	2.16	1.01	3.8		17.5
4	LAD	73	27	162	162	870.1	8.64	2.37	1.02	2.75		16
5	NYM	70	42	162	162	878	9.42	2.38	1.04	3.61		15.9
7	ATL	70	40	162	162	890.1	9.34	3.07	0.96	3.72		15.1
8	TOR	55	43	162	162	827.2	8.5	2.29	1.1	3.98		14
9	SDP	55	49	162	162	901	9.17	2.87	1.2	3.8		13.7
10	NYY	54	33	162	162	894.1	9.03	2.17	1.22	3.51		13.7
11	TBR	43	42	162	162	753	8.69	2.06	1.06	3.45		12.9
14	CLE	49	51	162	162	907	7.92	2.41	1.18	3.73		12
16	STL	52	53	162	162	864.1	6.98	2.85	0.91	3.92		10.5
17	SEA	56	52	162	162	903	8.05	2.65	1.21	3.75		9.7

Reliever (Bullpen) staffs and their rankings

Rank	Team	W	L	SV	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA		WAR
1	LAD	38	24	43	563	581	9.74	2.76	0.82	2.87		8.6
2	ATL	31	21	55	518	557.2	10.17	3.16	0.86	3.03		7.6
3	HOU	22	17	53	480	495.1	10.45	3.42	0.65	2.8		7.6
4	CLE	43	19	51	507	549	9.7	3.15	0.87	3.05		6.6
5	NYY	45	30	47	507	557.1	9.08	3.68	0.58	2.97		6
6	SDP	34	24	48	487	542.1	8.85	3	0.88	3.83		5.6
9	PHI	28	28	42	516	531.2	9.75	4.2	0.83	4.27		5.1
11	NYM	31	19	41	483	560.2	10.37	3.15	1.09	3.55		4.4
13	SEA	34	20	40	536	544	9.65	2.99	1.08	3.33		4.1
14	TBR	43	34	44	572	682.2	8.66	2.79	1.09	3.36		3.6
16	TOR	37	27	46	584	613.2	8.92	3.12	1.16	3.77		3
17	STL	41	16	37	466	571.1	7.99	3.39	0.93	3.61		2.9

When I handicap a baseball game or series, I always start with the pitching first.
Everything is else is secondary.

Don't get me wrong, I am not preaching to anybody on how to handicap a baseball game, I am not the be all, end all. Hardly.

I've been finding myself constantly tweaking the way I handicap baseball lately.
I need to verify this but I do believe 2022 set a MLB record for most bullpen innings pitched, but I do believe this to be true.

Back in the day starters went seven innings plus per start, today, starters rarely go six innings.
This isn't grandpa's MLB of the 1960's when the Whitey Fords, and the Koufax's and Carlton's and Gibsons hurled two or more complete games a month and you didn't really have to pay attention to bullpens.

Now?
You have to know who is available out of the 'pen for a specific games. you need to be up on the matchups splits, etc.

Case in point.
Tampa Bay's relievers have logged a total of 682.67 innings pitched.
Their starters have logged a total of 753 innings pitched.

It's almost a 50/50 split today in pitching between starters innings and relievers innings.
52 percent of the Rays innings pitched come from their starters, 48 percent of their innings come from their bullpen.
Used to be a 70/30 split.

Their starters don't go deep enough into a game to qualify for a win for the love of God.

You can't neglect teams bullpens.
I can't stress that enough.