[stevenash]

The 2022 MLB regular season has ended.
And here are the facts.

Eight of the top ten ranked overall team pitching staffs are playoff teams.
Eight of the top ten ranked team starting pitching staffs are playoff teams.
Seven of the top ten ranked bullpens are also playoff teams.

Oh sure every now and then a team with superior hitting and poor to mediocre pitching staffs will win the World Series, it happens on occasions, but that's the exception, not the rule.

Go ahead, look carefully at all the team rosters that have won the World Series in the past quarter century, tell me how many of those teams had the superior pitching?

Like it or not, the measuring stick so to speak, used in today's day and age that ranks pitching staffs is the Fan Graphs TEAM WAR metric.
The following tables presented below are ranked by TEAM WAR. (on the far right)

Overall post season team pitching staffs and their rankings.

Rank	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA		WAR
1	HOU	106	56	53	642	162	1445.1	9.49	2.85	0.83	2.9		27
2	LAD	111	51	43	725	162	1451.1	9.08	2.52	0.94	2.8		24.6
3	ATL	101	61	55	680	162	1448	9.66	3.11	0.92	3.46		22.8
4	PHI	87	75	42	678	162	1428.1	8.97	2.92	0.95	3.98		22.6
5	NYM	101	61	41	645	162	1438.2	9.79	2.68	1.06	3.58		20.3
7	NYY	99	63	47	669	162	1451.2	9.05	2.75	0.97	3.3		19.6
8	SDP	89	73	48	649	162	1443.1	9.05	2.92	1.08	3.81		19.3
9	CLE	92	70	51	669	162	1456	8.59	2.69	1.06	3.47		18.6
12	TOR	92	70	46	746	162	1441.1	8.68	2.65	1.12	3.89		17
13	TBR	86	76	44	734	162	1435.2	8.68	2.41	1.08	3.41		16.5
16	SEA	90	72	40	698	162	1447	8.65	2.78	1.16	3.59		13.8
17	STL	93	69	37	628	162	1435.2	7.38	3.07	0.92	3.79		13.3

Starting pitching staffs and their rankings

Rank	Team	W	L	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA		WAR
1	HOU	84	39	162	162	950	8.99	2.56	0.93	2.95		19.5
2	PHI	59	47	162	162	896.2	8.5	2.16	1.01	3.8		17.5
4	LAD	73	27	162	162	870.1	8.64	2.37	1.02	2.75		16
5	NYM	70	42	162	162	878	9.42	2.38	1.04	3.61		15.9
7	ATL	70	40	162	162	890.1	9.34	3.07	0.96	3.72		15.1
8	TOR	55	43	162	162	827.2	8.5	2.29	1.1	3.98		14
9	SDP	55	49	162	162	901	9.17	2.87	1.2	3.8		13.7
10	NYY	54	33	162	162	894.1	9.03	2.17	1.22	3.51		13.7
11	TBR	43	42	162	162	753	8.69	2.06	1.06	3.45		12.9
14	CLE	49	51	162	162	907	7.92	2.41	1.18	3.73		12
16	STL	52	53	162	162	864.1	6.98	2.85	0.91	3.92		10.5
17	SEA	56	52	162	162	903	8.05	2.65	1.21	3.75		9.7

Reliever (Bullpen) staffs and their rankings

Rank	Team	W	L	SV	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA		WAR
1	LAD	38	24	43	563	581	9.74	2.76	0.82	2.87		8.6
2	ATL	31	21	55	518	557.2	10.17	3.16	0.86	3.03		7.6
3	HOU	22	17	53	480	495.1	10.45	3.42	0.65	2.8		7.6
4	CLE	43	19	51	507	549	9.7	3.15	0.87	3.05		6.6
5	NYY	45	30	47	507	557.1	9.08	3.68	0.58	2.97		6
6	SDP	34	24	48	487	542.1	8.85	3	0.88	3.83		5.6
9	PHI	28	28	42	516	531.2	9.75	4.2	0.83	4.27		5.1
11	NYM	31	19	41	483	560.2	10.37	3.15	1.09	3.55		4.4
13	SEA	34	20	40	536	544	9.65	2.99	1.08	3.33		4.1
14	TBR	43	34	44	572	682.2	8.66	2.79	1.09	3.36		3.6
16	TOR	37	27	46	584	613.2	8.92	3.12	1.16	3.77		3
17	STL	41	16	37	466	571.1	7.99	3.39	0.93	3.61		2.9

When I handicap a baseball game or series, I always start with the pitching first.
Everything is else is secondary.

Don't get me wrong, I am not preaching to anybody on how to handicap a baseball game, I am not the be all, end all. Hardly.

I've been finding myself constantly tweaking the way I handicap baseball lately.
I need to verify this but I do believe 2022 set a MLB record for most bullpen innings pitched, but I do believe this to be true.

Back in the day starters went seven innings plus per start, today, starters rarely go six innings.
This isn't grandpa's MLB of the 1960's when the Whitey Fords, and the Koufax's and Carlton's and Gibsons hurled two or more complete games a month and you didn't really have to pay attention to bullpens.

Now?
You have to know who is available out of the 'pen for a specific games. you need to be up on the matchups splits, etc.

Case in point.
Tampa Bay's relievers have logged a total of 682.67 innings pitched.
Their starters have logged a total of 753 innings pitched.

It's almost a 50/50 split today in pitching between starters innings and relievers innings.
52 percent of the Rays innings pitched come from their starters, 48 percent of their innings come from their bullpen.
Used to be a 70/30 split.

Their starters don't go deep enough into a game to qualify for a win for the love of God.

You can't neglect teams bullpens.
I can't stress that enough.

[mackave]

nasher, are we gonna have some plays for tomorrow ? thanks

[stevenash]

nasher, are we gonna have some plays for tomorrow ? thanks

Yeah.
Grinding all the angles now.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

How many of the top ten hitting teams are playoff teams?

[KRIT]

What do you think of my Mariners Nash? First time in playoffs in 21 years.

We got great pitching, especially the pen. Offense can struggle but they can hit HR’s which seems like best way to score in playoffs (very hard to string multiple hits against tough pitching). Mariners did well against Toronto in the regular season.

[stevenash]

What do you think of my Mariners Nash? First time in playoffs in 21 years.

We got great pitching, especially the pen. Offense can struggle but they can hit HR’s which seems like best way to score in playoffs (very hard to string multiple hits against tough pitching). Mariners did well against Toronto in the regular season.

I love Servais.
They can win their first round.

[jjgold]

Hitting for the most part silent playoffs

[stevenash]

Hitting for the most part silent playoffs

Good pitching beats good hitting.
That's pretty much time proven.

[stevenash]

Here's what MLB.com has to say.

Ranking 2022 postseason pitching staffs (mlb.com)

And the more I think about it and crunch the numbers the more I'm liking the Houston Astros to win this whole thing.

Having said that, I'm going to have to take a shower with steel wool Brillo, because I can't stomach the Houston Astros. (Apologies and all due respect to all Astros fans out here in forum land).

My darkhorse sleeper in the AL are your fancy Cleveland fka Indians.
I wouldn't mind at all seeing Seattle knock off a few heavyweights along the way, but the feeling here is Cleveland is the slightly better team.

I'm also starting to think the Atlanta Braves and not the Hollywood Dodgers are the team to beat in the NL.

By now you guys know my passion is MLB, I have nothing but respect everything that is the St. Louis Cardinals, like KC and Omaha, St. Louis is a great midwest baseball town, they are a class organization, I love Benji, and Wain-o, and all the rest, the tradition, the Budweiser, the most World Series championships by any team not named the NY Yankees, but they don't have enough pitching for the postseason, and I seriously think they're going to struggle vs. Philly. If I'm wrong, oh well, it's not like I've never been wrong before, and I'm positive I'll be wrong again sometime in the very near future.

I'll post my plays a tad later.

[ThaTopMoron]

so

fade Sea and STL?

don't watch anything but isn't Tampa ice cold???

Guardians "win first ever playoff series".... good for MLB ehhhh??? lol

[stevenash]

so

fade Sea and STL?

don't watch anything but isn't Tampa ice cold???

Guardians "win first ever playoff series".... good for MLB ehhhh??? lol

Yeah, TB closed the season frigid, going 2 and 8 in your last ten is no way to enter the postseason, the way they got swept by Boston was not encouraging.

TB starts a LHP tomorrow, Cleveland doesn't hit LHP well, but TB starters are five and fly so I'll expect them to use a RH reliever first man out of the 'pen so I can't place that much of a premium on right/left splits if the Cleveland lineup is only going to see McClanahan once.
If McClanahan is dealing they may stretch him out, he's got the stamina to throw 100 + pitchers.
Hard to fade Bieber, who had a rock solid season. He truly was terrific, made all 31 starts, pitched 200 innings, 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WH/IP, 9.0 K's per nine. Come on, that's rock solid.


Mets are another team I'm not so high on as much anymore.


I'm on Philly +115 light (1*) series over Cards.
I'm on Cleveland -110 (pick) series over TB
I have a couple of other leans, if they become plays, I'll put them here.

[Chief Wahoo]

Appreciate the kind Cleveland comments but just can't get the spanking we got from Seattle a month ago out of my head and bet Seattle game one over Toronto as soon as I could. So happy Cleveland playing TB instead of them. No excuses as we can definitely beat the Rays.

Here's what MLB.com has to say.

Ranking 2022 postseason pitching staffs (mlb.com)

And the more I think about it and crunch the numbers the more I'm liking the Houston Astros to win this whole thing.

Having said that, I'm going to have to take a shower with steel wool Brillo, because I can't stomach the Houston Astros. (Apologies and all due respect to all Astros fans out here in forum land).

My darkhorse sleeper in the AL are your fancy Cleveland fka Indians.
I wouldn't mind at all seeing Seattle knock off a few heavyweights along the way, but the feeling here is Cleveland is the slightly better team.

I'm also starting to think the Atlanta Braves and not the Hollywood Dodgers are the team to beat in the NL.

By now you guys know my passion is MLB, I have nothing but respect everything that is the St. Louis Cardinals, like KC and Omaha, St. Louis is a great midwest baseball town, they are a class organization, I love Benji, and Wain-o, and all the rest, the tradition, the Budweiser, the most World Series championships by any team not named the NY Yankees, but they don't have enough pitching for the postseason, and I seriously think they're going to struggle vs. Philly. If I'm wrong, oh well, it's not like I've never been wrong before, and I'm positive I'll be wrong again sometime in the very near future.

I'll post my plays a tad later.

[stevenash]

Might as well post my thoughts and plays here through out the postseason tournament.

I'm expecting (and the bookmakers as well) a low scoring day.
For that reason I am shying away from all hitting props, and after breaking down the pitchings props one wager stands out.

My best pitching prop of the day:
Quintana (St. Louis) OVER 5.5 strikeouts.

I still believe Philadelphia wins this series in three games, but I can see Quintana whiffing six or seven Phillie batters.

Today isn't a good day to bet the totals (IMO) unless you like unders (I don't)
Plus the the four game over/unders are razor sharp, I can't find an edge in any one of the four games.

What I have working today is this:

Philadelphia to win their WC series +115 (40/46)
Mariners to win their WC series +135 (40/54)

Game 1:
Cleveland (Bieber) -120 (48/40)

Locked and loaded.
Enjoy the best postseason of them all.
MLB playoffs.

[Fred The Hammer]

Hope you're right on Seattle. Really rooting hard for my ex-Reds Castillo and Suarez. They have an exciting team all around really!

Took Philly ML 5 inn today, but Quintana isn't an insta-fade like he was 2-3 years ago. Felt like he was almost Corbin bad at that time, but he's really rebounded

[jjgold]

nashy good call

pitching wins game 1

[Chief Wahoo]

Have to admit can't wait to see this Mariners game. Everyone with a boner for this Toronto pitcher. Haven't seen the Mariners since they spanked us a month ago but at that time Castillo was dealing.

Hope you're right on Seattle. Really rooting hard for my ex-Reds Castillo and Suarez. They have an exciting team all around really!

Took Philly ML 5 inn today, but Quintana isn't an insta-fade like he was 2-3 years ago. Felt like he was almost Corbin bad at that time, but he's really rebounded

[stevenash]

nashy good call

pitching wins game 1

Thanks JJ.
Real nice to get out of the chute right off with a win.
MLB handicapping is such a grind.

Yeah, looks like today is going according to Hoyle.
Cleveland wins the matinee 2-1
This Cards/Phils game is scoreless in the sixth.

Pitching not always, but more often than not wins playoff games and series.

And be honest, these well pitched gems, that are decided in 2h and 20m are so much better than those Sunday keg slow pitch beer league games that wind up 12-8.

Post season baseball.
Real hardball.

Can't wait for the two night games.

[KRIT]

My M’s off to a nice start!

Cal might be best catcher in baseball in a year or two.

[stevenash]

My M’s off to a nice start!

Cal might be best catcher in baseball in a year or two.

I was a catcher all those years from age eight through age 20.
The secret to the M's success?
Scott Servais, a former catcher.
Catchers make the best bench managers.

Root your M's in for me Krit.

[stevenash]

"And the Phillies have come from all the way back to take a 3-2 lead in the ninth"

[KRIT]

I was a catcher all those years from age eight through age 20.
The secret to the M's success?
Scott Servais, a former catcher.
Catchers make the best bench managers.

Root your M's in for me Krit.

Yep Seattle is so ready to back a great baseball team, has been so long.

I’m a big Servais fan, just a fun guy. He deserves some votes for manager of the year.

Really like our chances in these playoffs. We got power to hit HR’s. Pretty good starting pitching and lights out pen. I would take our pen over anyone other than maybe Houston.

[chico2663]

Big red machine back in the days

[Fred The Hammer]

Yep Seattle is so ready to back a great baseball team, has been so long.

I’m a big Servais fan, just a fun guy. He deserves some votes for manager of the year.

Really like our chances in these playoffs. We got power to hit HR’s. Pretty good starting pitching and lights out pen. I would take our pen over anyone other than maybe Houston.

Castillo is great when he pitches to contact. He had too many stretches with the Reds where he tried to K everyone and would have 95 pitches by the 5th.

[Fred The Hammer]

I like how Seattle has the balls to bat Crawford 9th after he's hit 3rd and 4th this year. Do whats best for the team, but most managers won't because they don't want to hurt anyone's ego. My Reds will bat Votto 3rd-4th vs lefties even though he's hit .210 for years with no power vs lefties. Can't hurt anyones feelings

[stevenash]

Big red machine back in the days

Two words:
Sparky Anderson

[thetrinity]

Nash is right about pitching. I was thinking about the sorry pirates today watching the small market World Series at noon. I said wow these lineups really aren’t that scary. Pitching is a million times better on those teams though. Not even close. Plus those teams well managed do the little things right which pirates do not.

[stevenash]

I’m a big Servais fan, just a fun guy. He deserves some votes for manager of the year.

I'm an numbers nerd, and a baseball geek, I notice these things because, well I'm a geek.

A year and a half ago in late March, 2021 right before the Mariners broke camp I noticed something I don't think I ever saw before in MLB.

This is how Servais set up his core pitching staff.
Follow along now.

Mariners opening day 2021 starting rotation, one through four were all left handed.
(Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Sheffield)

Tyler Anderson (LHP) came over from the Pirates in a mid season trade, and replaced the fourth LH starter the M's had.
(Whose name escapes me right now)

The core six relievers at the start of last season for the Mariners featured five right handed throwers and one LH thrower.

I remember like it was yesterday saying to myself, "I don't think I've ever seen a pitching staff made up like that, first four starters all LHP, and the bullpens core six were five RH relievers and one LHP".

I also said to myself, "if an opposing manager set his lineup top heavy with right handed sticks vs. his LH starter, Servais could be a giant dick head and yank his lefty in the second inning, replace him with any combination of his RH relievers, forcing the visiting manager to flip his lineup with LH hitters.

That would be hilarious.
(God I need to get me a life, this is how my nerdy geek mind works)

*not for noting*
Chris Flexen was the only regular right handed starter for the Mariners last season, and Tony Misiewicz was the lone LH reliever, as he was a busy boy last year, appearing in over sixty games.

[mackave]

Something is telling me to take Tampa, but kinda think Cleveland ends this one.

[KRIT]

I'm an numbers nerd, and a baseball geek, I notice these things because, well I'm a geek.

A year and a half ago in late March, 2021 right before the Mariners broke camp I noticed something I don't think I ever saw before in MLB.

This is how Servais set up his core pitching staff.
Follow along now.

Mariners opening day 2021 starting rotation, one through four were all left handed.
(Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Sheffield)

Tyler Anderson (LHP) came over from the Pirates in a mid season trade, and replaced the fourth LH starter the M's had.
(Whose name escapes me right now)

The core six relievers at the start of last season for the Mariners featured five right handed throwers and one LH thrower.

I remember like it was yesterday saying to myself, "I don't think I've ever seen a pitching staff made up like that, first four starters all LHP, and the bullpens core six were five RH relievers and one LHP".

I also said to myself, "if an opposing manager set his lineup top heavy with right handed sticks vs. his LH starter, Servais could be a giant dick head and yank his lefty in the second inning, replace him with any combination of his RH relievers, forcing the visiting manager to flip his lineup with LH hitters.

That would be hilarious.
(God I need to get me a life, this is how my nerdy geek mind works)

*not for noting*
Chris Flexen was the only regular right handed starter for the Mariners last season, and Tony Misiewicz was the lone LH reliever, as he was a busy boy last year, appearing in over sixty games.

Yeah that was pretty weird. They totally overhauled the pitching staff. Don’t feel great about my M’s today, feel they should just start Gilbert in game 2. Ray has been hit and miss and Toronto is right hand heavy. Just seems like a game that Toronto can put runs on the scoreboard.

[TheLock]

The Mariners won a shit ton of one run games this year (35). Be weary of investing too much of your BR on them as they go deeper in the playoffs.

[Luv2Play2]

Nasher yes you made your case. " but " the cards loose is all on manager skillzzz. He blew it. Period !!!

[stevenash]

I'm back on Cleveland again, game two.
I'm multi tasking like a bunny rabbit at home here, I'll go into details later.
Right now, I got tons of real life house work going on.

Glasnow for TB can't go more than three innings, TB is going to have to fill six inning worth of pitching out of the bullpen, and TB's bullpen is not very dependable, very wild with all those wild pitches and hight walk ratio.

Once Glasnow is gone, I expect Clevelands sticks to do some damage off of that leaky pen/

Had a very nice day yesterday.

Clevelands is the play (-108 man to man pick 'em)
41/40 is the wager,

Be back later folks.

*not for nothing*
Your pal Nasher's football upset of the day.

Purdue +3 to win outright on the road agaist Maryland.

Want some?
Go get some.

[Luv2Play2]

A+ on boilermakers. Lets $$

[CappinTerp]

Hey nasher not sure you're my age....but remember back in the day when all we had was the Pitching Form ???...baseball was a LOT easier to handicap back then...anybody ?.....................go Terps

[Luv2Play2]

Cards next 2 @ + $$$