MLB Picks - Wednesday, 9/21/22

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Sides Wednesday

Orioles -152
Angels +131


YTD: 342-360-17, -23.78


All plays are Listed Pitchers unless ACTION is stated

Season low was -35.16 entering games of Thursday, 8/11/22

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Wednesday

3 MLB Plays Wednesday

Orioles -152
Angels +131
Cardinals / Padres UNDER 7.5 -108

[Regul8er]

Why O’s at this price? Just curious on your thoughts. They arent trending in the right direction, Lyles has been getting pounded lately, yet this seems like its priced where it would have been 2 weeks ago.

[stevex]

Why O’s at this price? Just curious on your thoughts. They arent trending in the right direction, Lyles has been getting pounded lately, yet this seems like its priced where it would have been 2 weeks ago.

It’s the model which doesn’t look at trends. Betting baseball is mostly about trends. For example, say the Yanks have won 6 in a row, depending on the price I’d bet them to win 7 in a row.

[spippen]

good luck

[jjgold]

He does
Not quit

Should get an award

[Regul8er]

It’s the model which doesn’t look at trends. Betting baseball is mostly about trends. For example, say the Yanks have won 6 in a row, depending on the price I’d bet them to win 7 in a row.

Got it man! Ya, tracking direction is a critical component. I find, especially in baseball, the market adjustment can take weeks. Mid August, the O’s were still priced as a non contender. I cashed several tickets where they were priced +160 to +180 when I had them priced 30 or 40 cents lower. They should not be anywhere near this price tonight with this pitching matchup and with how cool their bats are.

[pavyracer]

Trends should be factored in when modeling. It's not all about stats. LT never bet once the Braves, Dodgers or Yankees when they were on 10 plus winning streaks multiple times.

[Rich Boy]

Food for thought...

Bookmakers used advanced models to handicap games and give the most accurate outcome probabilities based on simulations

Why do you assume that your model is more accurate/efficient than those used by professionals and industry leaders?

[asiagambler]

Food for thought...

Bookmakers used advanced models to handicap games and give the most accurate outcome probabilities based on simulations

Why do you assume that your model is more accurate/efficient than those used by professionals and industry leaders?

Well that's the same thing as asking a bettor (professional or otherwise), "Why do you think you know better than the market?"

As long as you beat the closing line (by an appropriate margin) isn't that all that matters ?

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Pick Additions

6 MLB Plays Wednesday

Orioles -152
Pirates / Yankees UNDER 7.5 -103
Angels +131
Royals +121
Padres -131
Cardinals / Padres UNDER 7.5 -108

[Jayvegas420]

see any value in the rays?

[SlickFazzer]

Need to hold -23 units to have any chance for a comeback.

[LT Profits]

2 More MLB Pick Additions

8 MLB Plays Wednesday

Astros / Rays UNDER 7 -110 (ACTION)
Orioles -152
Pirates / Yankees UNDER 7.5 -103
Angels +131
Royals +121
Guardians / White Sox OVER 8 -108
Padres -131
Cardinals / Padres UNDER 7.5 -108

[Rich Boy]

Well that's the same thing as asking a bettor (professional or otherwise), "Why do you think you know better than the market?"

As long as you beat the closing line (by an appropriate margin) isn't that all that matters ?

And most dont, despite the belief they do

How many people can beat any major sports market consistently? Its too efficient imo, once you move to stock markets for example you can get edges >20% consistently

Over 700 plays now with negative return, safe to say there is no edge with this model.

[asiagambler]

And most dont, despite the belief they do

How many people can beat any major sports market consistently? Its too efficient imo, once you move to stock markets for example you can get edges >20% consistently

Over 700 plays now with negative return, safe to say there is no edge with this model.

This year certainly not but OP is still betting it so he must still believe in it

[Rich Boy]

This year certainly not but OP is still betting it so he must still believe in it

Fair enough, hes had success in years past but at what point does a model become outdated. At what point do you need to tweak things? 700 plays is a large enough sample size to see that any edge this did produce is gone or has this been an outlier year in MLB outcomes.

[asiagambler]

Fair enough, hes had success in years past but at what point does a model become outdated. At what point do you need to tweak things? 700 plays is a large enough sample size to see that any edge this did produce is gone or has this been an outlier year in MLB outcomes.

Well the first part is easy to answer, it's outdated when it no longer has an edge. I certainly don't disagree with anything you're saying. Me personally I don't believe in betting strictly based on a model or algorithm as there are just too many variables and market factors that aren't taken into consideration or are too difficult to accurately evaluate with a strictly quantitative approach. As far as tweaking things here, LT would definitely know more as it's his model not mine lol

[LT Profits]

Actually guys I have .done a decent job at beating closers, it simply has not translated as well as usual this year.

[LT Profits]

2 Last MLB Pick Additions

And we end up with a 10-Pack!

10 MLB Plays Wednesday

Astros / Rays UNDER 7 -110 (ACTION)
Orioles -152
Pirates / Yankees UNDER 7.5 -103
Angels +131
Angels / Rangers OVER 9 +107
Royals +121
Guardians / White Sox OVER 8 -108
Padres -131
Cardinals / Padres UNDER 7.5 -108
Athletics +193

[LT Profits]

6-2-2 with a +193