(5-0) Lets make it (6-0) Padres Tonight

[Facepunch]

Gone 5-0 for the past two days.

After that 14 inning loss against the Pirates, the Brew Crew is not going to be at their bets against a tough Padres team that has gone 7-2 at home. Conversely the Padres rally in the 5th to get ahead of a tough Florida team and come home victorious.
There are a lot of angles in this game, the rest factor, motivation factor stats and trends.
One of which is the pitching matchup, the Brewer's Pitcher Doug Davis has had a pretty lackluster start While the Padres Wade LeBlanc has been nothing short of brilliant in the beginning of this season.
The Brew Crew has folded to any team of consequence, and their inflated batting stats are a result of some real blowouts against Pittsburgh (nothing to write home about)

Get it while it is low.

PADRES -132

[Facepunch]

Adding :

Chicago @ Texas Over 9.5

These two plays could bring be back to an even record this season after a crappy start, Wish me Luck.

[korbal29]

ur 2 bets seem solid gl man

[Mudcat]

Uh oh, I like the UNDER on the TEX

[Facepunch]

In the pitcher's last 3 appearances they are a combined 5-1 to the over.

Gavin Floyd gives up bases, like it is going out of style.

I feel pretty good with the over. What are you seein' that I am not?

[linedrivr]

Adding :

Chicago @ Texas Over 9.5

These two plays could bring be back to an even record this season after a crappy start, Wish me Luck.

this one should cash. strong south winds should put some runs on the board for both teams.

[Facepunch]

Well crap, I have Heavy wind coming from the south which means it is coming in from between 1st and 2nd toward home plate.
Not sure that is much reason to change the bet though, look at that serious wind that was coming from the outfield to home yesterday in the NY Mets game.

Still feeling the over.

[Sawyer]

GL man!

[BillAccpetor]

Gone 5-0 for the past two days.

After that 14 inning loss against the Pirates, the Brew Crew is not going to be at their bets against a tough Padres team that has gone 7-2 at home. Conversely the Padres rally in the 5th to get ahead of a tough Florida team and come home victorious.
There are a lot of angles in this game, the rest factor, motivation factor stats and trends.
One of which is the pitching matchup, the Brewer's Pitcher Doug Davis has had a pretty lackluster start While the Padres Wade LeBlanc has been nothing short of brilliant in the beginning of this season.
The Brew Crew has folded to any team of consequence, and their inflated batting stats are a result of some real blowouts against Pittsburgh (nothing to write home about)

Get it while it is low.

PADRES -132

Series chase

[Facepunch]

Series chase

Forgive my ignorance, but
What is that?

[excel]

Good luck, maybe if you win a couple more you can do like everyone else and rename em "rubber face punch play" or something 6-0.

[BillAccpetor]

If you would lose today... Bounce it back tomorrow or on saturday (Padres will at least win one game @ home).

[Facepunch]

If you would lose today... Bounce it back tomorrow or on saturday (Padres will at least win one game @ home).

Gotcha.

[sonnybaby]

like the padres pick

[smarmy]

SD actually has a good chance to sweep this series.

[Facepunch]

SD actually has a good chance to sweep this series.

I could see it.

Clayton Richard and Mat Latos are the next two that are pitching for the Padres They have a combined record of 1-4 this season.

I see the Brew Crew picking up at least one of them, possibly both. I will be scouting for a day to fade the juice and go for the value play.

[Facepunch]

HIT (6-0) with the CHW/ TEX Over.

Looking to hit (7-0) with the Padres tonight.

[Whippit]

Treading dangerously laying the wood with Padres. Milwaukee's pitching sucks, but this game is a coin flip when played at Petco. You probably got the wrong side at that price, brah.

[Facepunch]

Milwaukee has gone 3-7 in their past 10 games in San Diego

[Facepunch]

since it didn't get posted I'll put up my Blog post from today:

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

Pitching Matchup

Doug Davis is pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers . Davis has had 2 No Decisions and 2 Losses over 18 innings pitched this season. He carries an ERA of 8.35 and has only ventured past the 4th inning one time this season which resulted in a loss against the Chicago Cubs. While Davis sports a 10-3 record against the Padres, I do not think he will have the run support that is needed to pull out the win, especially after his horrendous start. It takes baby steps to drop a 8.35 ERA to something respectable, and until he does, he deserves no respect from your bankroll.

Wade LeBlanc takes the mound to improve on his 2-0 Record and .82 ERA after 11 innings pitched. LeBlanc is coming off of an impressive outing @ Cincinnati where the Reds did not score a single run as LeBlanc allowed only 3 hits over 6 innings. As far as the pitching match-up the stats heavily favor LeBlanc as he has shot out to a great lead compared to Doug Davis.

Edge=LeBlanc /Padres

The Bats

Milwaukee has had mixed results with their batting crew this season. They have been capable of 17-20 run games (against Pittsburgh), but have struggled against quality pitching, as was evident in their three game losing streak to Chicago, where they scored 4 runs over 3 games. Aside from beating up on Pittsburgh their bats have really not been all that great.

San Diego is a bit more consistent hitting well over 4 runs (on average) per game regardless of quality of pitching, and not relying on weak strength of schedule to inflate their stats. This is a team that can take advantage of weakened Pitchers and can rack up quick runs, like yesterday's game at Florida, where they scored 5 runs in the 5th.

Edge=Padres

The Situation

-San Diego are 8-2 in their last 10 Games overall

-Milwaukee has gone 3-7 in their past 10 games in San Diego

-Milwaukee has gone 5-5 in their last 10 game

-San Diego 7-2 @ home this season

Milwaukee is coming off of a 14 inning all out brawl for runs. Where they could not beat the team that they have been beating up as of late. The Brew Crew is running on empty after dropping two in a row with only one win breaking up a 5 game losing streak. Not to mention the flight time and regular fatigue that they will be experiencing after a hard fought demoralizing loss.



The Weather

No rain on the horizon (10% chance) . The wind is expected to come in pretty heavy , and could be an issue, I recommend checking the weather report at www.weather.com/outlook/events/mlb before game time before locking in any over or under plays.

The Play

After an exhausting game Milwaukee is going to not be at their best for this night game in San Diego. I am giving the Run Line a serious look closer to game time, but am completely sold on this -132 line.

Final Play: San Diego -132


Obviously I will add some at this new low price.

[2daBank]

im playing under 7.5 in the sd/mil game, think Davis will be ok in a pitchers park and looks like the over is getting pounded, i saw you were worried about the over in the tex game because of the wind, for future reference when the winds blowing "in" or from the south in that stadium (which it usually is) it creates a jet stream out for some reason....gl with your play

[Facepunch]

im playing under 7.5 in the sd/mil game, think Davis will be ok in a pitchers park and looks like the over is getting pounded, i saw you were worried about the over in the tex game because of the wind, for future reference when the winds blowing "in" or from the south in that stadium (which it usually is) it creates a jet stream out for some reason....gl with your play

Same to you bud

Good to know about that stadium, it is now in my notes.

[greenshark11]

I like the picks gl

[mp5070]

Good Luck!