MLB - Friday, 5/17/19

**jjgold** · 05-17-19, 07:00 AM

This is going in the wrong direction

**LT Profits** · 05-17-19, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

This is going in the wrong direction

2-9 run

**Big Bear** · 05-17-19, 07:43 AM

Surprised you are not on the Cubs

Better line-up

Pitching is about even

And you get plus money

**LT Profits** · 05-17-19, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

Surprised you are not on the Cubs

Better line-up

Pitching is about even

And you get plus money

Pitching is NOT even, Scherzer is tons better, that is whole key to the play.

**funnyb25** · 05-17-19, 08:12 AM

Don't think I have ever seen you lay -145. Must be a winner. BOL

**Sam Odom** · 05-17-19, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

This is going in the wrong direction

comeback soon... maybe beginning today

**LT Profits** · 05-17-19, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Don't think I have ever seen you lay -145. Must be a winner. BOL

Yeah, would only do it with elite pitchers.

**LT Profits** · 05-17-19, 11:42 AM

MLB 5-Inning Addition

4 MLB Plays Friday

Nationals -145 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +104 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +100 (5 innings) (Bookmaker)
Twins / Mariners UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)

**jjgold** · 05-17-19, 03:27 PM

LT shut it down until after all star break

**RM Logic** · 05-17-19, 05:38 PM

Yikes -another under. Good luck with that. Pitching has been horrible all over baseball this week.

**Shev2** · 05-17-19, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Pitching is NOT even, Scherzer is tons better, that is whole key to the play.

Can you please explain the difference between betting Scherzer here and betting deGrom almost all of last year? deGrom the best pitcher in baseball last season but if you made that the whole key to your plays you'd have been fukked.

**mikmik** · 05-17-19, 08:46 PM

Man this is painful

**pavyracer** · 05-17-19, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yeah, would only do it with elite pitchers.

LT have you ever made a gut bet in your life? Like looking at your model and hitting just 15% on you last 12 plays and say fukk it! I'm betting the Cubs tonight because they are a nice dog on the road!

**GreatWallofTrump** · 05-17-19, 10:26 PM

Junk loser. Just say it. After 2014 you’ve been or you model has been broke

**Big Bear** · 05-18-19, 06:07 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

LT have you ever made a gut bet in your life? Like looking at your model and hitting just 15% on you last 12 plays and say fukk it! I'm betting the Cubs tonight because they are a nice dog on the road!

I still can’t believe he thinks Mad Max is better than Cole Hamels

**Big Bear** · 05-18-19, 06:10 AM

Originally posted by GreatWallofTrump

Junk loser. Just say it. After 2014 you’ve been or you model has been broke

The reason the model is trash is b/c he factors in what players used to do years ago which has no significance for tonight’s games. It’s like they always say in soccer “so and so is in good form” well your form changes quite frequently

**LT Profits** · 05-18-19, 06:19 AM

Originally posted by Shev2

Can you please explain the difference between betting Scherzer here and betting deGrom almost all of last year? deGrom the best pitcher in baseball last season but if you made that the whole key to your plays you'd have been fukked.

Line value, not often you get elite pitchers at under -150. Yes this play lost, but I would make it every time.

**LT Profits** · 05-18-19, 06:20 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

LT have you ever made a gut bet in your life? Like looking at your model and hitting just 15% on you last 12 plays and say fukk it! I'm betting the Cubs tonight because they are a nice dog on the road!

There will always be rough patches throughout the year, good thing MLB is a marathon.

**LT Profits** · 05-18-19, 06:23 AM

Originally posted by GreatWallofTrump

Junk loser. Just say it. After 2014 you’ve been or you model has been broke

No true, 4 winning MLB seasons in last 5 years. And winning in all other sports this year too except NCAA Hoops, where I just missed at -1.something after coming back from nearly -40.

**LT Profits** · 05-18-19, 06:26 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

The reason the model is trash is b/c he factors in what players used to do years ago which has no significance for tonight’s games. It’s like they always say in soccer “so and so is in good form” well your form changes quite frequently

Refer to Post 20.

And I don;t use data from "years ago", model is weighted for recency. It is just that I define recency differently than you, for me it is the past year, I don't care about microsamples like last 4-5 starts.

**LT Profits** · 05-18-19, 06:32 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

I still can’t believe he thinks Mad Max is better than Cole Hamels

This is not even debatable, up to the second after last night, Scherzer 2.91 xFIP, Hamels 3.82 xFIP. I never said Hamels was not good, in fact I have him about 10% above average. But Scherzer is elite at around 40% above thanks to great K/BB ratio.

**Big Bear** · 05-18-19, 06:43 AM

Just bustin ya balls LT

you the man

now lets win on saturday!!!