ML vs -1.5????

[tcarn01]

I am new to the baseball wagering, but I have noticed that usually if a team wins they win by at least 2 runs. At least that is what I have been seeing in pre season and reg season. It seems to me it's not like hockey where scores are really close day in and day out. I mean even in extra innings if it's tied and there is a walk of homer, a guy could be on base and the team wins by two.. This is not the case in hockey where there are similar lines -1.5 for example.

Just a thought. Does anyone have research about how many games last year or years before were actually decided by 1 run? From what I have seen if you pick the winner a lot of the time they win by 2 or more runs. There is a lot more value in -1.5 then ML plays...

any thoughts on this???????????

[vmchockey]

In the last 2 nights, 16/22 games have been won by 2 runs or more.

Something like 10 of those teams that won by 2 or more were dogs. That's some pretty nice cash, no?

[tcarn01]

I mean that's my point. Even if you take the +1.5. as long as you get the team right 16/22 is pretty good..

[vmchockey]

5Dimes has an option to switch the dog to -1.5 and it's like +305.

[Jive]

Last season 26.97% of all games were 1-run games. I don't know what % of favorites who won covered the 1.5, though, as this number includes dogs who won by a single run.

Playing the run line can be good in some cases, but there are some instances to look out for. For instance, some teams just play a lot more 1-run games than other teams. Last year the Mariners, Marlins, Braves, and Dodgers all played over 50 1-run games. Also generally people don't take the home team -1.5 because of how games end if the home teams wins. Either they don't take their final at-bat, meaning one less opportunity to score, or they win in the last at about which will usually mean a 1 run game (the game ends as soon as the one run lead is earned unless they hit a multi-run walk-off homer).

[Facepunch]

It is tempting when betting R/L on a team with high juice, -178 down to +105 area, but it is deceiving ,and gives you a false sense of "value" if it is a one unit play as a moneyline it is a one unit play as a runline.

[vmchockey]

I still don't understand?

Risking 1u on -178 will get you far less than risking 1u on +105

[KingJIM]

I still don't understand?

Risking 1u on -178 will get you far less than risking 1u on +105

If you win you would win 1 unit on ml @-178 and you would win 1.05 on runline in that case. Basically the same.

If you lose you would lose 1.78 on ml and only 1 unit on runline.

Like another poster said don't bet home teams -1.5 because if they are up by 1 run they don't bat in the 9th and if its tied and goes into extras you need a 2 run home run, 3 run home run or grand slam to win.