Twins face White Sox in early AL Central showdown
Sure it's early, but last we checked a win in April is the same as a win in September. The Twins visit Chicago's South Side for a key AL Central series this weekend against Ozzie Guillen's Pale Hose.
Will there be any winning teams in the American League Central Division this year? It’s entirely possible that none of the five clubs in this forgotten corner of Major League Baseball will crack the 80-win mark. The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox have the highest 'over/under' for regular season wins at 82. The Detroit Tigers are right behind them at 81. At least the playoff race should be competitive.
It starts right now. The Twins and White Sox hook up for a three-game set this weekend at U.S. Cellular Field, and by virtue of a scheduling quirk, Minnesota (3-1 SU, 1.69 units) has already played four games this year to just three for Chicago (1-2 SU, -1.80 units). That means the Twins will get to use the 1-2 pitchers in their starting rotation, while their hitters get to face the 4-5 pitchers for the White Sox. That could be the playoffs right there.
Here’s a breakdown of the probable pitching matchups for all three games.
Francisco Liriano vs. John Danks (-120, 8½)
Friday - 8:10 p.m. (ET)
Liriano was on the verge of superstardom with the Twins before missing the entire 2007 season to Tommy John surgery. He’s only been slightly better than average since then, posting a 1.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in 2008 and a 1.1 WAR in 2009. Last year’s unsightly 5-13 record (9-15 team record, -7.02 units) and 5.80 ERA have Liriano stuck in the fifth spot in the Twins rotation, although his 4.55 xFIP suggests he was the victim of some bad luck.
Danks is also looking for some redemption after dropping from 5.2 WAR in his breakout 2008 campaign to 2.9 WAR (16-16 team record, -0.67 units) last year. It’s his first game of the season, but he should still be good for a quality start, which Danks provided in 20 of his 32 appearances in 2009.
The Twins relief corps is vulnerable without closer Joe Nathan (47 saves, 3.00 xFIP), and Liriano occasionally had issues getting through five innings last year before finishing the season in the bullpen. The value is on the White Sox with the early betting odds slightly in their favor at –125.
Scott Baker vs. Freddy Garcia
Saturday - 1:05 p.m. (ET)
Baker (3.5 WAR) is Minnesota’s default ace of the post-Johan Santana years, a reliable northpaw who delivers consistent results on the mound – plus a useful 4.15 betting units on last year’s team record of 20-13. But Baker’s first start in 2010 only lasted 4.2 innings, as he allowed four runs in a 6-3 defeat against the Los Angeles Angels (-124 at home).
“I just didn’t have much rhythm or much flow going on,” Baker told reporters after the loss.
The Twins will try to give Baker some run support at the expense of Garcia, who posted a 1.6 WAR in nine starts with the White Sox last year, his second tour of duty on the South Side. Thanks to shoulder problems, Garcia hasn’t pitched a full season since his first stint ended in 2006. His 4.22 xFIP in 2009 holds promise for better things this year if Garcia can stay durable – he went at least six innings in each of his last eight starts for the Pale Hose.
Nick Blackburn vs. Mark Buehrle
Sunday - 2:05 p.m. (ET)
Blackburn was a close No. 2 to Baker last year with a 3.0 WAR, but with a lot less run support and a deficit of 5.16 units on a team record of 16-17. That seems a bit unlucky. Perhaps 2010 will be different after the Twins belted three home runs to give Blackburn the W in a 5-3 victory over the Angels (-139) on Tuesday night. Blackburn went 6.2 innings in that game and often gets through seven.
The oddsmakers will no doubt be leaning toward Buehrle, even though his 3.4 WAR and 4.43 xFIP last year were in the same neighborhood as the numbers for Baker and Blackburn. Buehrle got things off to a hot start with seven scoreless innings and a circus defensive play in a 6-0 victory over the visiting Cleveland Indians (+128) for Chicago’s only win of the season thus far.
Sure it's early, but last we checked a win in April is the same as a win in September. The Twins visit Chicago's South Side for a key AL Central series this weekend against Ozzie Guillen's Pale Hose.
Will there be any winning teams in the American League Central Division this year? It’s entirely possible that none of the five clubs in this forgotten corner of Major League Baseball will crack the 80-win mark. The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox have the highest 'over/under' for regular season wins at 82. The Detroit Tigers are right behind them at 81. At least the playoff race should be competitive.
It starts right now. The Twins and White Sox hook up for a three-game set this weekend at U.S. Cellular Field, and by virtue of a scheduling quirk, Minnesota (3-1 SU, 1.69 units) has already played four games this year to just three for Chicago (1-2 SU, -1.80 units). That means the Twins will get to use the 1-2 pitchers in their starting rotation, while their hitters get to face the 4-5 pitchers for the White Sox. That could be the playoffs right there.
Here’s a breakdown of the probable pitching matchups for all three games.
Francisco Liriano vs. John Danks (-120, 8½)
Friday - 8:10 p.m. (ET)
Liriano was on the verge of superstardom with the Twins before missing the entire 2007 season to Tommy John surgery. He’s only been slightly better than average since then, posting a 1.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in 2008 and a 1.1 WAR in 2009. Last year’s unsightly 5-13 record (9-15 team record, -7.02 units) and 5.80 ERA have Liriano stuck in the fifth spot in the Twins rotation, although his 4.55 xFIP suggests he was the victim of some bad luck.
Danks is also looking for some redemption after dropping from 5.2 WAR in his breakout 2008 campaign to 2.9 WAR (16-16 team record, -0.67 units) last year. It’s his first game of the season, but he should still be good for a quality start, which Danks provided in 20 of his 32 appearances in 2009.
The Twins relief corps is vulnerable without closer Joe Nathan (47 saves, 3.00 xFIP), and Liriano occasionally had issues getting through five innings last year before finishing the season in the bullpen. The value is on the White Sox with the early betting odds slightly in their favor at –125.
Scott Baker vs. Freddy Garcia
Saturday - 1:05 p.m. (ET)
Baker (3.5 WAR) is Minnesota’s default ace of the post-Johan Santana years, a reliable northpaw who delivers consistent results on the mound – plus a useful 4.15 betting units on last year’s team record of 20-13. But Baker’s first start in 2010 only lasted 4.2 innings, as he allowed four runs in a 6-3 defeat against the Los Angeles Angels (-124 at home).
“I just didn’t have much rhythm or much flow going on,” Baker told reporters after the loss.
The Twins will try to give Baker some run support at the expense of Garcia, who posted a 1.6 WAR in nine starts with the White Sox last year, his second tour of duty on the South Side. Thanks to shoulder problems, Garcia hasn’t pitched a full season since his first stint ended in 2006. His 4.22 xFIP in 2009 holds promise for better things this year if Garcia can stay durable – he went at least six innings in each of his last eight starts for the Pale Hose.
Nick Blackburn vs. Mark Buehrle
Sunday - 2:05 p.m. (ET)
Blackburn was a close No. 2 to Baker last year with a 3.0 WAR, but with a lot less run support and a deficit of 5.16 units on a team record of 16-17. That seems a bit unlucky. Perhaps 2010 will be different after the Twins belted three home runs to give Blackburn the W in a 5-3 victory over the Angels (-139) on Tuesday night. Blackburn went 6.2 innings in that game and often gets through seven.
The oddsmakers will no doubt be leaning toward Buehrle, even though his 3.4 WAR and 4.43 xFIP last year were in the same neighborhood as the numbers for Baker and Blackburn. Buehrle got things off to a hot start with seven scoreless innings and a circus defensive play in a 6-0 victory over the visiting Cleveland Indians (+128) for Chicago’s only win of the season thus far.