MLB - Friday, 6/22/18

**LT Profits** · 06-22-18, 07:02 AM

3 MLB Plays Friday

3 MLB Plays Friday

Rays +152 (5 Dimes)
Mariners +132 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Brewers UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)

**MontrealCrw** · 06-22-18, 07:27 AM

You gotta tweak your system somehow, seems like you stuck and can't pass 20 units for some reason.
GL, love your work!

**LT Profits** · 06-22-18, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by MontrealCrw

You gotta tweak your system somehow, seems like you stuck and can't pass 20 units for some reason.
GL, love your work!

Actually peaked at +22.something almost a month ago. That's OK though, still a looooong way to go.

And thanks!

**JIBBBY** · 06-22-18, 10:26 AM

Should think about playing the Oakland A's today in both the double header games LT Profits.. If they lose the first game double up in the second.. I personally think they'll win both though if it doesn't get rained out again..

This A's team is heating up. Won 4 straight now going into today's game.. Odds are reasonable and Chicago White Sox are just a really bad team even at home.. A's bats are hot and tt overs are hitting also..

A's last 5 -

Jun 22	@	Chi White Sox	1:10 PM PDT CSCA, CSCh

Jun 16	vs	LA Angels	W	6 - 4
Jun 17	vs	LA Angels	W	6 - 5
Jun 19	@	San Diego	W	4 - 2
Jun 20	@	San Diego	W	12 - 4
Jun 21	@	Chi White Sox	PPD

**snider** · 06-22-18, 10:29 AM

There was an angle with AZ. Greed is the downfall of any gambler. But do you really keep all your bets confined within the system? You don’t have to answer thar. I wouldn’t tweak.. numbers are numbers.

Where are the brewers here? Cards have one clutch hitter and he has to catch and is aging.

**jjgold** · 06-22-18, 10:38 AM

LT cannot get over 20 units

**LT Profits** · 06-22-18, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by snider

There was an angle with AZ. Greed is the downfall of any gambler. But do you really keep all your bets confined within the system? You don’t have to answer thar. I wouldn’t tweak.. numbers are numbers.

Where are the brewers here? Cards have one clutch hitter and he has to catch and is aging.

I never go against the model. I do NOT bet every play the model likes though and I am very loose on the 10-cent variance rule of thumb. I have passed on plays with extreme variance and I occasionally bet on games that are just pennies off, I use a lot more judgment than pure modelers. And the AZ angle you are talking about was one I talked about when I said I do not like when games are PPD late in the day and then the same pitcher starts next day. Last night was compounded by fact that Kuhl was actually in bullpen when rains came Wednesday.

I have Milwaukee 52% (-108) so actually lean Cardinals although I am passing.

**Nateboogy** · 06-22-18, 11:59 AM

LT, what does model get for A’s White Sox Game 1? I feel like A’s have significant advantage, but once lineups were released it shifted in favor of White Sox.

**LT Profits** · 06-22-18, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Nateboogy

LT, what does model get for A’s White Sox Game 1? I feel like A’s have significant advantage, but once lineups were released it shifted in favor of White Sox.

You could ask me same question about Game 2 and answer would be the same.

A's 59% (-144) each game.

**Nateboogy** · 06-22-18, 12:18 PM

So that doesn’t make those plays? Seems like decent value if I have -125. I guess it goes back to you not playing the games that are PPD

**LT Profits** · 06-22-18, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Nateboogy

So that doesn’t make those plays? Seems like decent value if I have -125. I guess it goes back to you not playing the games that are PPD

Right for Game 2 as that was last night's matchup. Game 1 I hate the fishy line movement, strong RLM toward ChiSox.

**LT Profits** · 06-22-18, 01:23 PM

Dupe Post

**TheSchafe** · 06-22-18, 01:34 PM

White Sox abysmal in many areas, especially against left-handed pitching. Dead last in the league. Going to give the A's a shot on the run line in the matinee.

Also praying that Bruce Rondon makes an appearance at some point. Worst reliever in the league.

**cjpenn3** · 06-22-18, 03:42 PM

Love the M's today. Good luck on that one. Curious what the model shows for the Phillies and Dbacks?

**JIBBBY** · 06-22-18, 03:42 PM

A's are up early in this first game as expected fellas. This is gonna be easy money...https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/oakland...sox-380622204/

**LT Profits** · 06-22-18, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by cjpenn3

Love the M's today. Good luck on that one. Curious what the model shows for the Phillies and Dbacks?

Arizona 56% (-127) vs. Pirates
Washington 59% (-144) vs. Phillies

**jjgold** · 06-22-18, 04:23 PM

Cubs a sharp side tonight

**Blackballer** · 06-22-18, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Cubs a sharp side tonight

Reds are on a good run and Castillo has had success against the Cubies!!

**2daBank** · 06-22-18, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by Blackballer

Reds are on a good run and Castillo has had success against the Cubies!!

I’m too buzzed up to even try to cap games tonight (only playing homer bet on cards) but I do think Castillo by far reds most talented starter, obviously he young and still has a ways to go but he capable any given night.