Yes/No Run is 1st Odds every game

[Snowball]

my book didn't offer this last year on every game. But now they do.
yes/no run in 1st. odds vary but are roughly even in +110-125 range, for example the highest No is Philly because Halladay at -140.

with good pitching it doesn't take much at all to have a scoreless 1st.
Any suggestions ?



Also I gotta tell ya I like the Chi Sox today !! Cleveland is very iffy and Buehrle is starting the hope opener, broadcast on ESPN2.

[xxdjstriderxx]

yes for twins/angels

[dimon]

have you seen the stats for this? if I am not mistaken if you take a sample pool of about 50 games you will see that it is right at around 50% yes/no

[stingyrivers]

if you guys look back I tried to work this out at the beginning of the past couple seasons... as silly as it is of me, I really like making this bet so I really wanted to work out a system using this....

what I generally found is this bet is truly a coinflip bet... as much as you track back starting pitchers past success in the first inning, which is what I did... day to day it doesnt translate to anything mostly because one mistake pitch, or one fielding error with Halladay on the mound kills your bet... It is a fun play though to make...

I think also something working against you is, if a couple runners get on base, the team isnt really playing life or death to prevent a run coming in because it is only the first inning in the context of the whole game... in other words, teams will always sacrifice a run for an out in the first...

keep going with it though... it is a fun play so if you can hit a 55% win rate it is worthwhile.... good luck all

[teecee]

If you're gonna play this, just pick yes for every game.

[Snowball]

I'm going to be a selective NO player.. starting with ChiSox/Indians at 2pm.

[pitman]

a run in first inning (yes) is 6-1 so far

[TJ EasyStreet]

If you're gonna play this, just pick yes for every game.

In the playoffs last season, this was positively filthy especially since you often got EV or better.

[suicidekings]

In the past, yes in the first inning, and no in the second inning were winners over a fairly large sample of games, however that success resulted in an adjustment from the books, who offered steeper prices on these bets, pushing your breakeven point higher and taking the life out of the system.

[teecee]

I've never played the yes/no game, so I don't know what the prices have been. I just notice that runs are scored quite often in the 1st inning.

[BernardMadoff]

....................

[Karate]

i have been using and working on a system that i found on another site. The way it works is a simple small money chase on the first inning. There has never been a team in the MLB to not score OR have there opponent score in the first inning longer then 10 games. basically you could easily chase a team on yes for 10 games and hit once in that span. OR you can wait until they havent hit in a while and then jump in for a shorter, but less frequent chase.

[TennisBabe]

Last year I loved betting these. Wish books didn't limit you to just $300 ;-)

[Flight]

This thread reminds me of Cocknocker