Tuesday's Front Page Plays (Sep 18)

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 09:55 AM

Back Verlander & Tigers (-117) at the Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 09/18/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

A late rally gave the Indians the dubya last night over the Tigers. But Detroit has a decided pitching edge this evening with Justin Verlander on the bump in Cleveland.

I was somewhat fortunate to win with Cleveland yesterday as the Indians scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to tie the game. The Tribe would eventually score the winning run in the bottom of the 11th. I'm coming back with Detroit today though.

Despite last night's painful loss, the Tigers haven't given up yet. As Zach Miner noted, "We still have 11 games left. We were dead and buried five days ago and got five wins."

The defending American League Champs clearly send the hotter pitcher to the mound this evening. Justin Verlander is 4-0 with a miniscule 0.87 ERA over his last four starts. Verlander averaged greater than seven innings in each of those starts and didn't allow more than a single run in any of them. For the season he is 8-2 with a 3.11 ERA on the road.

On the other hand, Cleveland's Jake Westbrook is just 3-5 at home. He allowed four runs, including two home runs, in his last start and is now 0-2 (team is 0-3) with a 4.34 ERA and an ugly 1.714 WHIP his last three starts. With "the season on the line," consider a play on Detroit.

Free Pick: Tigers -117

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 09:56 AM

Play Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves Over 10½ (-120)

Game Time: 09/18/2007 07:35 PM -
By: Will Cover | playbook.com

The Braves and Marlins combined for 17 runs in last night's 11-6 win for Atlanta at home. Play the Over again tonight when the two teams square off at Turner Field.

Coming off last night's offensive show when the Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves combined for 17 runs in the Braves' 11-6 win, we see more of the same this evening.

Florida has played to the Over in seven of their last eight games and are 6-0 to the Over in their last six road games versus left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has gone 8-3 Over in their last 11 games and 5-2 to the Over in Jo-Jo Reyes' last seven starts. Seven of the last eight games in this series have gone Over the total as well.

Bombs away! Play the Over in this contest.

Free Pick: Marlins-Braves Over 10½ (-120)

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 09:57 AM

Silva & Twins (-125) vs. Rangers

Game Time: 09/18/2007 08:10 PM
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

This is a nice price on a home team with the starting pitching advantage. Make your play on the Minnesota Twins at home in the Metrodome tonight against the Texas Rangers.

I'll look for the Twins to get a win Tuesday night on the strength of the pitching matchup.

Kevin Millwood (9-12, 5.51) goes for Texas, and he's been terrible on the road. Plus, Millwood is 0-4 in seven career appearances against the Twins. Contrast that with Carlos Silva (11-14, 4.44), who's had a good year for the Twins in terms of quality starts, and Silva's home numbers are impressive. Not a bad price on the hosts here, so the Twins are the choice.

Free Pick: Twins -125

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 09:58 AM

NY Mets (-154) at Washington

Game Time: 09/18/2007 07:05 PM
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

John Maine has pitched much better for the Mets on the road this season, and New York is in desperate need of him doing just that tonight. Back the Mets at the Nationals.

The Washington Nationals are just 13-25 when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season, and John Maine (14-9 ERA 3.72), the starting pitcher for the New York Mets, is the superior pitcher on the mound tonight.

Maine is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.00 against the Nationals this season over 12 innings while allowing just four hits. Opponents are hitting just .231 against Maine this season and he has pitched better on the road with a 9-3 record and an ERA of just 3.71 this season over 85 innings.

Washington's Joel Hanrahan has struggled over his last three starts with an ERA of 5.69 and I look for the Mets bats to come alive tonight against him since they are the superior team here Tuesday night.

Free Pick: Mets -154

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 10:42 AM

Play LA Dodgers +117 at Rockies

Game Time: 09/18/2007 03:05 PM
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The pitching advantage in this afternoon's contest at Coors Field goes to Los Angeles. Back Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers today in Game 1 of their doubleheader with the Rockies.

Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers' starting pitcher for this tilt against the Colorado Rockies, is 4-0 along with a 1.64 ERA in his last five starts, and has been lights out on the road going 7-2 along with a stingy 2.61 ERA this season.

He will face a top notch hurler in Jeff Francis who has looked a little tired of late, as was evident by allowing eight runs in his last outing in just a little over three innings of work. With the Rockies playing inconsistently, and the current form of both starting pitchers, I will recommend backing Los Angeles as underdogs here today. Play on the Dodgers.

Free Pick: Dodgers +117

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 10:45 AM

Play Blue Jays and Red Sox Under 9½ in Toronto

Game Time: 09/18/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

A couple of pitchers on good runs square off at the Rogers Centre tonight in Toronto, and that makes the Under the best play when the Blue Jays host the Red Sox.

This is a magnificent spot for the Under. Boston's Jon Lester has pitched extremely well in his last three starts. Facing the Devil Rays and Orioles (twice), Lester has been touched for only six earned runs and 18 hits in 16.2 frames. That adds up to a respectable 3.24 ERA. The Under has popped in all three of those starts, too.

Toronto's A.J. Burnett has been in a zone of his own as well. In his last three trips to the hill against the Yankees, Devil Rays and Mariners, Burnett has been right on target allowing only five earned runs and 11 hits in 23 innings or work. That adds up to a sizzling 1.96 ERA and a WHIP of 0.652. At home, A.J. has been tough to hit too. In 10 starts, Burnett has surrendered only 20 earned runs and 46 hits in 70.1 innings. That equates to a sizzling 2.56 ERA and a WHIP of 0.995 with the Under is a profitable 7-3 in thos 10 contests.

On a technical note, Toronto has gone under the mark in 39 of its last 59 tries (two ties) and 37 of its last 60 priced as a favorite. Meanwhile, Boston has fallen under the mark in 43 of its last 54 (three ties) on the road facing a right-handed pitcher. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Red Sox-Blue Jays Under 9½ (+100)

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 10:52 AM

Bet the Tigers (-115) at the Indians

Game Time: 09/18/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

It's a must-win game for Detroit after blowing last night's contest in Cleveland. Take the Tigers with Justin Verlander on the mound this evening against the Indians' Jake Westbrook.

Detroit has won their last six straight. In their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record, the Tigers are 6-1. Detroit is 5-1 in their last six road games and 7-2 in their last nine games as a favorite.

In Justin Verlander's last 12 road starts, the Tigers are 9-3. In his last 43 starts as a favorite the Tigers are 31-12.

The Indians have also been playing very well, but with Jake Westbrook on the mound you have to go with Detroit. The Indians are 2-5 in Westbrook's last seven starts and 2-5 in his last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record. Play on the Tigers.

Free Pick: Tigers -115

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 11:23 AM

Dog the Dodgers +107 at the Rockies

Game Time: 09/18/2007 03:05 PM
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Getting a pitcher like Los Angeles' Chad Billingsley on the dog line is hard to pass up. Back the Dodgers in Game 1 of their twin bill this afternoon against Jeff Francis and the Rockies.

The Dodgers, after a day off, travel to Colorado looking to bounce back off their loss to Arizona on Sunday. The Dodgers come into this one clinging to hopes of the playoffs as they sit four games off the pace in the NL West and three out for the Wild Card spot. The loss the other day dropped them to 79-70 and snapped their four-game winning streak.

Los Angeles has done well against left-handed starters posting a 25-17 (+550) mark on the year. Tonight they will be facing a tough lefty in Jeff Francis of the Rockies. However, Francis has been shaking over his last three starts going 1-2 with a very high 6.88 ERA.

The Rockies come into this one hoping to make the playoffs as well but have been struggling down the stretch going only 3-4 their last seven and sit six games out of first place in the NL West, five back in the Wild Card race. Overall the Rockies have still surprised most staying above the .500 mark this late in the season at 77-72.

In Game 1 of today's double header with the Dodgers, the Rockies will be facing a tough right-hander in Chad Billingsley who has been sensational down the stretch, going 4-2 with a 2.77 ERA on the road and an even better 2-0 mark with a miniscule .95 ERA in his last three starts.

Supporting Angles: The Dodgers are 16-8 (+8.9 Units) against the moneyline after a loss by four runs or more this season. L.A. is 21-13 (+9.5 Units) against the moneyline in road games after a loss this season. Colorado is 10-19 (-13.2 Units) against the moneyline in home games after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.

A great pitching matchup in this one between two teams who both have a lot at stake. But anytime you can get a pitcher as hot as Billingsley listed as an underdog you have to take the value. I'm taking the LA Dodgers in this one.

Free Pick: Dodgers +107

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 12:54 PM

NY Mets, Nationals Under 9

Game Time: 09/18/2007 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

John Maine owns the Nationals, as he has yet to allow a run in two starts vs. Washington this year, while Joel Hanrahan has had his moments for the Nats. Play the Under here.

The Washington Nationals beat the New York Mets 12-4 last night, but we expect a much lower scoring game this time around.

John Maine is 14-9 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.26 WHIP for the Mets, but more importantly, he has been unhittable vs. the Nationals. In fact, he has yet to allow a run vs. Washington this season, allowing just a grand total of four hits in 12 innings! If we include his last outing vs. the Nats last season, Maine has allowed two runs and seven hits in 18 innings over his last three appearances against them.

Also, Joel Hanrahan has been a pleasant surprise since entering the Washington rotation, allowing three earned runs or less in seven of his nine starts. This includes a Quality Start vs. the Mets in an upset win at Shea Stadium, where Hanranah permitted three runs and just four hits in six innings.

Finally, even with last night’s result, the Under is still 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, and we expect a return to that normalcy tonight.

Free Pick: Mets, Nationals Under 9 (-120)

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 03:34 PM

Play the Mets (-169) at Nationals

Game Time: 09/18/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

Needing to shake a losing streak, the Mets send right-hander John Maine to the mound tonight in Washington. Nab New York as the favorite against the Nationals on Tuesday.

After a beat down last night by the Nats (12-4), the Mets take John Maine's 9-3 road record to the mound tonight in bounce back mode.

I like his road ERA at 3.71 and his ability not to put runners in scoring position either. He has beaten the Nationals twice this year allowing four hits overall against them. We all know the Mets are a far superior team and I doubt they become too complacent with the playoffs around the corner and will refocus off a loss tonight.

They are 5-2 against the Nationals in the last seven games, boast a better team hitting percentage as well in this matchup. The Mets' bullpen has been deplorable of late with over a 7.00 ERA, but Maine can go 6-7 innings tonight and the Mets can and will hit Joel Hanrahan with an ERA of almost 6.00.

Free Pick: Mets -169

Willie Bee · 09-18-07, 03:40 PM

Take Toronto (-140) versus Boston

Game Time: 09/18/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Lenny Del Genio | sportspic.com

The Red Sox are banged up and missing several key starters, including DH David 'Big Papi' Ortiz. Back the Blue Jays at home in Toronto this evening when they take on Boston.

The Red Sox are now just 3½ games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East. It's Boston's smallest division margin since late April 26!

Manny Ramirez is expected to miss this series. First baseman Youkilis was held out of the starting lineup for the second straight game due to a swollen right wrist last night, DH David Ortiz has a sore knee and CF Coco Crisp has a stiff back. Jon Lester is 4-0 on the year in nine starts (team is 8-1) but owns a 4.86 ERA (5.40 on the road). He'll be up against a Toronto team that's 14-3 (plus-$1,059) in night home games in '07.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox must face Toronto's A.J. Burnett (8-7, 3.42 ERA), who has gone 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last seven starts (team is 5-2). He's allowed only 25 hits in 50.2 innings, walking 18 and striking out 46. Take the Jays.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -140