1. #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Thursday, 4/28/16

    2 MLB Plays Thursday

    Red Sox / Braves OVER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins +121 (Heritage)


    YTD: 49-67-1, -13.42

  2. #2
    LT Profits
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    60%ers:

    Cubs 76% (-317)
    Washington 60% (-150)
    Boston 69% (-223)

  3. #3
    Spartak
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    Hi LT,
    I see you play Marlins, but can you tell me how much you have for Dodgers?

  4. #4
    Amadeo-Picks
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    2 MLB Plays Thursday

    Red Sox / Braves OVER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins +121 (Heritage)


    YTD: 49-67-1, -13.42
    On paper and everything else I understand why picking Marlins it's a value play with Fernandez . But if u take into account that this is the 4TH game btw Marlins/Dodgers . Do u really believe Dodgers get swept at home? Maeda has shown to be no scrub. And it's REALLY hard and rarely happens a mediocre team sweeping(4games not3) a good team at home

  5. #5
    PorkChop
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    2 MLB Plays Thursday

    Red Sox / Braves OVER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins +121 (Heritage)


    YTD: 49-67-1, -13.42

    Expecting Public to jump all over Jose Fernandez at +120

  6. #6
    Nateboogy
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    I'm assuming it's because his model probably has Maeda regressing, which I agree with. As for mediocre team, I think you are wrong. Marlins have a very solid lineup. I would take that lineup over the overrated Dodgers.

  7. #7
    Amadeo-Picks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nateboogy View Post
    I'm assuming it's because his model probably has Maeda regressing, which I agree with. As for mediocre team, I think you are wrong. Marlins have a very solid lineup. I would take that lineup over the overrated Dodgers.
    I personally don't go in favor of sweeps. And specially when it's a 4 game sweep and the home team is about to get swept. And Fernandez has an era closer to 4.00 on the road than it is to 3.00 .

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    Antibet
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    Reversed gay penguin jinx



  9. #9
    geebert74
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    Two days in a row for the same bet... Someone has a hard on!

  10. #10
    LT Profits
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    I never even consider potential sweeps, I look at each game individually so, in a sense, streaks do not exist in my mind. The numbers should adjust themselves if a team is really improving/getting worse so no need to even think about sweeps.

    And model has this game dead even at 50% (+100)

  11. #11
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by geebert74 View Post
    Two days in a row for the same bet... Someone has a hard on!
    Something else that I don't care about, just happens naturally. Although it probably makes sense considering total is at same number.

  12. #12
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Antibet View Post
    Reversed gay penguin jinx


    It worked yesterday.

  13. #13
    Amadeo-Picks
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I never even consider potential sweeps, I look at each game individually so, in a sense, streaks do not exist in my mind. The numbers should adjust themselves if a team is really improving/getting worse so no need to even think about sweeps.

    And model has this game dead even at 50% (+100)
    i think you should atleast give it some personal thought. What's the hardest thing to do in baseball? Sweep a team. Even the teams that loose 90 games rarely get swept unless they're in a lengthy loosing streak.

  14. #14
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amadeo-Picks View Post
    i think you should atleast give it some personal thought. What's the hardest thing to do in baseball? Sweep a team. Even the teams that loose 90 games rarely get swept unless they're in a lengthy loosing streak.
    The sweep angle could very well be the reason you can get Fernandez at this price in what looks like an even matchup.

  15. #15
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    The sweep angle could very well be the reason you can get Fernandez at this price in what looks like an even matchup.
    I agree with this - the sweep angle is often taken into consideration in the line, especially when we are talking about a 4 game series, with the big name Dodgers, at home, against the historically bad Marlins.

  16. #16
    mlb
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    let's not forget Maeda has been on fire, so he probably does deserve to be favored at home right now

    with that said, I think the value on Fernandez is there.

  17. #17
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkChop View Post
    Expecting Public to jump all over Jose Fernandez at +120
    Maybe if he wasn't going against the public darling Dodgers and Maeda who has been a stud.

  18. #18
    juicername
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amadeo-Picks View Post
    i think you should atleast give it some personal thought. What's the hardest thing to do in baseball? Sweep a team. Even the teams that loose 90 games rarely get swept unless they're in a lengthy loosing streak.
    It's hard to sweep a team because it's tough to build a winning streak.

    Each game should be considered in a vacuum and once the first three games are won that's done and dusted and the fourth game is completely independent by the previous results in the series. What I mean is that it's not tougher to win the last game than any other in the series.

    I get the regression to the mean and that no team can be expected to win 100% of a series, but we should expect that regression to happen over a longer time span than just a four-game series. Thinking otherwise would be like believing it's higher probability of red coming up at the roulette wheel after 10 straight blacks.

    And the motivational angle to avoid a sweep must surely be close to zero in baseball, I mean will the losing team finally start focus more at the plate and start swinging hot bats just to avoid a sweep? I think not.
    Last edited by juicername; 04-28-16 at 09:59 AM.
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    mlb gave juicername 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  19. #19
    Amadeo-Picks
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    It's hard to sweep a team because it's tough to build a winning streak.

    Each game should be considered in a vacuum and once the first three games are won that's done and dusted and the fourth game is completely independent by the previous results in the series. What I mean is that it's not tougher to win the last game than any other in the series.

    I get the regression to the mean and that no team can be expected to win 100% of a series, but we should expect that regression to happen over a longer time span than just a four-game series. Thinking otherwise would be like believing it's higher probability of red coming up at the roulette wheel after 10 straight blacks.

    And the motivational angle to avoid a sweep must surely be close to zero in baseball, I mean will the losing team finally start focus more at the plate and start swinging hot bats just to avoid a sweep? I think not.
    so ur taking Marlins in this game too....fine by me .not my money . I'm doing fine this year. Just trying to give a diff angle. Dodgers slight pitching advantage, don't be fooled by the name . Tho he can very well throw a shut out and prove wrong -Fernandez

  20. #20
    juicername
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amadeo-Picks View Post
    so ur taking Marlins in this game too....fine by me .not my money . I'm doing fine this year. Just trying to give a diff angle. Dodgers slight pitching advantage, don't be fooled by the name . Tho he can very well throw a shut out and prove wrong -Fernandez
    Yeah I was on Miami before LT posted.

    That's great to hear that you're doing good this season and of course your observation is appreciated. I can see that my post might have come off pretty know-it-all and douchey but it's just my opinion as well, maybe the sweep angle does have a point thatI don't see.
    GL with your picks today (unless you're on the Dodgers .

  21. #21
    Amadeo-Picks
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    Yeah I was on Miami before LT posted.

    That's great to hear that you're doing good this season and of course your observation is appreciated. I can see that my post might have come off pretty know-it-all and douchey but it's just my opinion as well, maybe the sweep angle does have a point thatI don't see.
    GL with your picks today (unless you're on the Dodgers .
    Everyone has diff perspectives and that's why I like this site . It wasn't taken personal no worries

  22. #22
    RavensFan2k3
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    Maeda opened at what, -140? Over Jose Fernandez? Please. I'll likely be on Miami too

  23. #23
    jjgold
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    Marlins always live dog regardless of anything

  24. #24
    Brooklyn Dick
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    If you flip a coin 3 times and heads comes up all 3 would you lay -120 the fourth flip is tails, or would you rather take +120 heads again?

  25. #25
    VegasPlayer
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    Giants got swept at home 2 weeks ago (4 Games). It's hard, but not impossible.

  26. #26
    Nateboogy
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    What does mode say for A's today? I like them, but no coco crisp makes me second guess it.

  27. #27
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nateboogy View Post
    What does mode say for A's today? I like them, but no coco crisp makes me second guess it.
    Detroit 57% (-133), lean Tigers actually but not enough.

  28. #28
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    1 MLB Addition

    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    Red Sox / Braves OVER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins +121 (Heritage)
    Marlins / Dodgers UNDER 6.5 -110 (Heritage)

  29. #29
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasPlayer View Post
    Giants got swept at home 2 weeks ago (4 Games). It's hard, but not impossible.
    it definitely happens... thanks for pointing that out - and Giants were coming off an impressive series against the Dodgers if I remember correctly.

  30. #30
    GotGreek
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Detroit 57% (-133), lean Tigers actually but not enough.
    I actually have oak as a small fav -115, i think the pitching matchup favors oakland, small value there.

  31. #31
    kmarinouofm
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brooklyn Dick View Post
    If you flip a coin 3 times and heads comes up all 3 would you lay -120 the fourth flip is tails, or would you rather take +120 heads again?
    exactly bro..

  32. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by GotGreek View Post
    I actually have oak as a small fav -115, i think the pitching matchup favors oakland, small value there.
    Not on my end and it is not even close really. Sanchez is rated MUCH better. Stop looking at this season only after 3-4 starts, Sanchez has much stronger forecast rest of year while Bassitt grades out below average.

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