SBR's Dustin Saracini shares his best No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for Thursday, July 3rd (38-26, +6.59 YTD):
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets (-128 at FanDuel)
Jose Quintana (3.30 ERA) vs. David Peterson (3.30 ERA)
NRFI record: Brewers (47-39) vs. Mets (52-35)
"Here are two of the best NRFI teams leaguewide, and two pitchers who sparkle in this specific matchup. The math is clearly adding up to play this as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Quintana has been decimating the top of the Mets' order during his career, limiting Francisco Lindor (3-for-22), Starling Marte (5-for-24), Juan Soto (1-for-10), and Pete Alonso (1-for-3) to a measly collective .169 average while also striking them out on average 24% of the time. That will work for three outs.
Peterson has been posting great numbers against the Brewers, too. Christian Yelich is just 1-for-8 and striking out 40% of the time against Peterson lifetime, while William Contreras is 2-for-7. I like our odds here, and this matchup is a no-brainer NRFI."
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners (-145 at DraftKings)
Seth Lugo (2.74 ERA) vs. Logan Evans (3.38 ERA)
NRFI record: Royals (54-33) vs. Mariners (40-46)
"This was supposed to be a start featuring Bryan Woo, our favorite pitcher in the league. But he's been pushed to tomorrow, so we'll ride with Logan Evans instead as part of our best NRFI bets today. While Evans has either been lights out or incredibly mediocre this season, he's yet to give up a run in the first frame all year. We'll give him another shot today.
But Lugo is the main reason we're on this play. He's allowed just two earned runs across his last 23 2/3 innings pitched. Yes, he's an absolute stud, and the Mariners own a .285 xwOBA against him. Let's not overthink this while getting six simple outs."
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets (-128 at FanDuel)
Jose Quintana (3.30 ERA) vs. David Peterson (3.30 ERA)
NRFI record: Brewers (47-39) vs. Mets (52-35)
"Here are two of the best NRFI teams leaguewide, and two pitchers who sparkle in this specific matchup. The math is clearly adding up to play this as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Quintana has been decimating the top of the Mets' order during his career, limiting Francisco Lindor (3-for-22), Starling Marte (5-for-24), Juan Soto (1-for-10), and Pete Alonso (1-for-3) to a measly collective .169 average while also striking them out on average 24% of the time. That will work for three outs.
Peterson has been posting great numbers against the Brewers, too. Christian Yelich is just 1-for-8 and striking out 40% of the time against Peterson lifetime, while William Contreras is 2-for-7. I like our odds here, and this matchup is a no-brainer NRFI."
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners (-145 at DraftKings)
Seth Lugo (2.74 ERA) vs. Logan Evans (3.38 ERA)
NRFI record: Royals (54-33) vs. Mariners (40-46)
"This was supposed to be a start featuring Bryan Woo, our favorite pitcher in the league. But he's been pushed to tomorrow, so we'll ride with Logan Evans instead as part of our best NRFI bets today. While Evans has either been lights out or incredibly mediocre this season, he's yet to give up a run in the first frame all year. We'll give him another shot today.
But Lugo is the main reason we're on this play. He's allowed just two earned runs across his last 23 2/3 innings pitched. Yes, he's an absolute stud, and the Mariners own a .285 xwOBA against him. Let's not overthink this while getting six simple outs."