Fresh off cashing Max Muncy (+360) last night, SBR's Sean Tomlinson is back with his best MLB home run predictions for Thursday, June 26th:
NYM Brandon Nimmo To hit a home run (+525 via BetMGM)
LAD Teoscar Hernandez To hit a home run (+270 via bet365)
SF Rafael Devers To hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel)
CLE Jose Ramirez To hit a home run (+425 via bet365)
Parlay odds: +59705 via FanDuel ($10 to win $5,970.52)
Best Bet: Brandon Nimmo (Mets) to hit a home run
"There's a canyon of difference between the pricing for Nimmo, which is crucial for one of our best home run bets today and the potential winnings if you're riding with him.
bet365 and BetMGM are listing him at +525, and there's a negligible gap to FanDuel at +520. However, the chasm comes when we look at the offerings from DraftKings and Caesars, which are both sitting at +400.
The implied probability from the latter two books is 20%, which is more in line with Nimmo's recent surging after the left-handed masher has posted an .896 OPS in June, making his slow start and .673 in March and April a fading memory. Nimmo has also tallied two multi-home run games during the month (and six long balls overall in June).
He lights up righties too (.813 OPS versus .658 against lefties) and will face one in the Braves' Grant Holmes who is tied for 14th leaguewide after surrendering 14 homers.
And yet despite all that, the implied probability from bet365 and BetMGM for him to go deep rests notably lower at 16%."
NYM Brandon Nimmo To hit a home run (+525 via BetMGM)
LAD Teoscar Hernandez To hit a home run (+270 via bet365)
SF Rafael Devers To hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel)
CLE Jose Ramirez To hit a home run (+425 via bet365)
Parlay odds: +59705 via FanDuel ($10 to win $5,970.52)
Best Bet: Brandon Nimmo (Mets) to hit a home run
"There's a canyon of difference between the pricing for Nimmo, which is crucial for one of our best home run bets today and the potential winnings if you're riding with him.
bet365 and BetMGM are listing him at +525, and there's a negligible gap to FanDuel at +520. However, the chasm comes when we look at the offerings from DraftKings and Caesars, which are both sitting at +400.
The implied probability from the latter two books is 20%, which is more in line with Nimmo's recent surging after the left-handed masher has posted an .896 OPS in June, making his slow start and .673 in March and April a fading memory. Nimmo has also tallied two multi-home run games during the month (and six long balls overall in June).
He lights up righties too (.813 OPS versus .658 against lefties) and will face one in the Braves' Grant Holmes who is tied for 14th leaguewide after surrendering 14 homers.
And yet despite all that, the implied probability from bet365 and BetMGM for him to go deep rests notably lower at 16%."