NBA Clippers+100 ML 2 UNITS
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Comment -
5/4/25
Snakes+115 Rodriguez 2 UNITS
Guardians-102 Bibee 2 UNITS
Royals/Orioles OVER 9.5
A's/Fish UNDER 8.5
Rays/Bombers OVER 8.5Comment -
CRUMBS PODS ARE 28-8 so far-looking for more today
The highest rated arm that I have for the CRUMBS POD is
Red Leggins Nick Martinez#10 with only 19% rostership
The top level ratios aren't pretty but he's solid, and the Nats have 275 K's this season already in 34 games-good for approx 8 K's per game. I mean what more do you want? I can definitely see the 5/3/1/K/W in him. Get it Nick-you got thisComment -
E-Rod has a ERA that is exploded and not indicative of how he pitches against the Blunts-a team that he has K'd up 32.2% of their 59 AB. His xwOBA for this one is in the .320 range-which is similar to Ranger Suarez- who is fresh off the IL and more than likely won't go the 5 frames necessary for a win qualification. By that time the Snakes will have figured out that he is just trying to get over. and out I have E-'Rod at #16 and Ranger at #18 so there's an underdog with a higher ranking here.
Tanner Bibee...he's not the arm of last season to be true-but HE'S FOUND HIS CUTTER, and I expect for this to ne in his repertoire from here on out. Bowden Francis has a sweet deliver and actually I have him #13 to Bibee's #9; but he's been not utilizing all of his arsenal for some odd reason lately. It's been 4 seamers and splitters basically and the rare curveball. So guys are sitting on his splitter knowing that it will come routinely after he throws a 4 seamer. This has to be fixed. Anyway through the first two games of this series the Jays were -158 on average and today only -115. I wouldn't be mad if the Guardians drop this one-not having Jose Ramirez is a major blow to their lineup
Royals (Lorenzen) is a gas can (xwOBA .442) and so is Gibson (xwOBA .345) and combined they have the highest xwOBA for today's slate of games-therefore I went with the OVER.
The lowest combined xwOBA's for today are the A's with Sears (..225) and Cabrerea (.172). The roof will also be open and you already know what that means for the total-joes are completely decidedly on the OVER and I am siding with the books and getting in the short line.
Taj Bradley has an xwOBA of .333 vs Bombers and Warren a ghastly .449. the Rays play in a cookie cutter stadium with the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium-so when I tell you that mediocre pitching vs these teams usually will lead to a lack of success for pitchers just know that hope isn't a good strategyComment -
And BTW there's an 88% chance of rain for the Snakes/Blunts game-be advisedComment -
Oh baseball Gods-please don't have Nick Martinez get to fuckin around as it's apparent that he is coming out for the 6th frameComment -
OMG! I have Shane Smith ranked as a top ten! I'm unsure if this is the right tier for Smith, who has yet to display legit stamina to go through six strong. Still, his stuff is legit and he's been productive across five frames constantly. The Royals may go on to hammer them in this situation as they are a robust 11-5 at home and the Pale Hose are 3-13 on the highway-yet and still the juice was worth the squeeze when he only has 12% of rostership.
Other landmines for today are Miles Mikolas. He has been shockingly effective and now he gets the Pirates. If there has ever been a trap play...You really don't need to take the chance. What, you want 5.0 IP of 1 ER, a 1.00 WHIP and 3 strikeouts? That's not worth the chance of obliteration. However in this setting you can't go against the Cardinals as an entire team. I also do have Mlodzinski rolling for me-I parked him at #20 yet he has only 1% of rostership. We want Bubba dangit! Don't be surprised if the Buccos give the Cardinals hell early in this one. Dudes got an xwOBA of .216 for today which is actually elite status
It's the debut of Ryne Nelson in the rotation now that Burnes is on the IL for shoulder soreness. He tossed just under 70 pitches last time out and could go closer to 80 here, though I'm not sold on the quality yet. Let him have a day as a proper starter and then I can assess.
Griffin Canning has been far better than expected, especially with his slider precision. This is too much to ask, though. I don't think the ceiling is worth this.
Jake Irvin (Nats) I'd have him in the second tier if not for Irvin falling to 90.1 mph in his last start. He was sitting 92 mph previously. Something feels wrong. However he is up against Luis Ortiz-his whiff potential is always there, but can he locate the heaters upstairs for enough strikes? The Nats got bats and they look good to go for the FF in this one.
I will be back much later on. I have already had today's offerings monitored-however I may end up betting OUT of one or more so it's best to update after the dust settles
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Alright boys-I have Shane Smith ranked at #5 with only 12% of rostership-so he's my CRUMBS POD of the day for a 5/3/1/K/W ratioComment -
Ok so
Nats-105 FF IrvinComment -
5/5/25
Bombers-1.5 +130 RL Rodon 2 UNITS
Fathers/Bombers OVER 8 Pivetta/Rodon
Braves-1.5 +130 RL Smith-Shawver 2 UNITS
Red Leggins/Braves OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
Cubs-1.5 +130 RL Boyd 2 UNITS
Giants/Cubs OVER 7.5 1 UNIT
Royals-1.5 -120 RL Ragans 2 UNITS
Pale Hose/Royals OVER 8 1 UNIT
Cardinals-1.5 +130 RL Mikolas 2 UNITS
Buccos/Cardinals OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
Nats-105 FF ML Irvin
Buccos+118 Mlodzinski 1 UNIT BUY BACKComment -
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So now I think that I am good for today in MLB and turning my attention to NBA.Comment -
So what I am gonna do is take whichever underdog that is actually up at halftime for the second halfComment -
5/6/25
If you watched the Billy Walters interview with Joe Rogan you heard him speak on something I always talk about and that is money management.
Money management in full effect here-don't pay over -135 if you don't have to-it will cost you some wins taking RL's but for the betterment of the operation as a whole it is a must to get the best deals
I am making an honest effort to make the switch from basically intersecting fantasy baseball with conventional sides and totals. Along the way I have learned some good things from confidants at the sportsbook and I am using these tools now
Rot.#924 Rays+109 Rasmussen
Rot.#920 A's-1.5 +165 RL Springs 2 UNITS
Rot.#910 Snakes-108 Gallen
Rot.#925 Fathers-1.5 +155 RL King
Rot.#916 Twins-1.5 +115 2 UNITS
Rot.#932 Nats-110 FF Irvin
Rot.#908 Buccos/Cardinals UNDER 7 -105 Skenes/Liberator
Rot.#906 Cubs-1.5 +155 RL Rea 2 UNITS
Rot.#04 Braves-1.5 -105 RL Sale 2 UNITS
Rot.#914 Royals-1.5 -108 Lugo
4 WAY ML PARLAY ODDS +469
Twins-160
Braves-225
Cubs-145
Royals-230Comment -
be careful y'all looking for a chicken dinner with the Buccos today and Skenes. Liberator is nice-and if you don't know your arms you may get beatComment -
Oh Lord...
Commish has demanded a 12 team pick runoff for tomorrow with the voting and declared winner on Sunday. $200 entry and for those who don't put it up it will be extracted from their winnings throughout the week. $7200 purse and a crispy half purse of $3600 to the winner with the most units sounds pretty good to me...
I won't be studying long to come up with my 12-that's how you lose horse racing bets. I am going to look for and exploit value the best way that I can and take run lines on my favorites mostlyComment -
For those who like NBA...
Cavs-5.5Comment -
If Dubs are still +6.5 come gametime I am on boardComment -
Watching these bullpens do what they do and it all is coming back to me as to why I like FF moves over full game ones. There's not much of a way to sustain good returns when guys are walking the first batter that they faceComment -
Cubs wheels falling off ruined the eveningComment -
5/7/25
Rot.#978 Bombers-1.5 RL +115 Fried 2 UNITS
Rot.#977 Fathers/Bombers OVER 7.5 -120 1 UNIT
Rot.#959 Red Leggins-113 Greene 2 UNIT
Rot.#953 Giants+126 ML Ray 2 UNITS
Rot.#966 Royals-1.5 -103 RL Wacha 2 UNITS
Rot.#965 Pale Hose/Royals OVER 7.5 -130 1 UNIT
Rot.#973 Astronauts-130 Valdez 1 UNIT
Rot.#952 Cardinals-1.5 +119 RL Gray 2 UNITS
Rot.#951 Buccos/Cardinals OVER 7.5 -110 1 UNIT
Rot.#955 Metropolitans-125 ML Senga 2 UNITS
Rot.#962 Sailors/A's UNDER 4.5 +100 FF Woo/Hoglund 1 UNIT
Rot.#967 Orioles+126 Morton 1 UNIT
Rot.#976 Rays+115 ML Baz 1 UNIT
Rot.#964 Red Sox-122 Houck 1 UNITComment -
Those are my run off purchase ordersComment -
I'm bored. let me take something that makes no sense
Rot.#972 Nats+117 SorokaComment -
Boy I sure hope that the tallying is going to produce a run-off win for me-should know by tomorrow morning. Anyway i chopped it up with my good source again last night and i earned a lesson in market averages. I had heard Billy Walters mention it in the interview with Joe Rogan and I wanted to dg a little deeper off into it and what it means in the MLB marketplace. I think that I am getting the parlay method down with the exception that the round robin theory still escapes me a bit. Anyway during the discussion here is what I picked out to see if I was understanding it correctly. By the end of the conversation I began to get a sense why the super big sides and totals guys pour buckets of money onto the totals more than sides.
I knew that this conversation would be intriguing when it started off with "whoever is pitching is not of consequence if they are not a number 1 starter. Those lines will always be inflated-the jewels are for the games after the number ones in direct correlation to the totals amounts"
Red Leggins/Braves OVER 8
Jays/Halos UNDER 8.5 Bassitt/Soriano
Rays+122 Pepiot
Wanderers+124 Leiter
Orioles/Twinkies UNDER 8.5
Pale Hose/Royals OVER 8Comment -
How the Wanderers let Bello get out of some of those jams without scoring is beyond comprehension. That was just a luck thing right thereComment -
5/9/25
Tigers-1.5 -120 RL Skubal
Giants+105 Hicks
Guardians+100 Williams
Metropolitans-1.5 +130 RL Holmes
Nats-120 ML FF Parker
Snakes+110 RodriguezComment -
CRUMBS STREAMER POD O' THE DAY
Tomoyuki Sogano (Orioles)Comment