Bet out of the guradians and take the twinkies+106 right now for 3 units
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What a piss off. I hate it hen the linemaker does an about face-the way that i am reintroducing myself into making conventional sides and totals moves is one where I am going to have to remember it's like NBA and CBB betting-gotta wait until the last 15 or so minutes for some moves that are close to the buy in price. the buy in price for this one as i discussed earlier this morning was -122 or more for the home team. The line had been over -122 all day long until right before the event and then made a sudden downturn on me and ruined my exotics featuring the Guardians and their team total. The OVER was fine. I blasted away with the Twinkies for 3 units close to gametime to lessen the sting
Lesson re-learned about this-it was a sophomoric error. Sorry about that y'all. I have some good stuff for tomorrow-but now I am taking the family out for some Tika ling cod and squash from this East Indian joint in town. Food is incredibleComment -
6:00 Rot.#966 Guardians-1.5 +148 RL Bibee 2 UNITS
6:00 Rot.#965 Twinkies/Guardians OVER 8 -120 1 UNIT
6:30 Rot.#956 Blunts-1.5 +113 RL Wheeler 2 UNITS
6:30 Rot.#956 Nats/Blunts OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
7:00 Rot.#970 Rays-1.5 +135 RL Bradley 2 UNITS
7:00 Rot.#969 Royals/Rays OVER 8.5 -120 1 UNIT
8:00 Rot.#974 Wanderers-1.5 -105 RL deGrom 2 UNITS
8:00 Rot.#973 A's/Wanderers OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
9:30 Rot.#978 Sailors-1.5 +130 RL Miller 2 UNITS
9:30 Rot.#977 Halos/Sailors OVER 7.5 1 UNIT
9:30 Rot.#978 Sailors Team Total OVER 4.5 +105 1 UNIT
9:30 Rot,#978 Sailors (Miller) OVER 6.5 K's -140 1 UNIT
10:00 Rot.#964 Dodgers-1.5 +105 RL 2 UNITS
10:00 Rot.#963 Fish/Dodgers OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
And if it looks like I am using a system-I am. I took what I learned from my good source and then back tested it and recent tested it, and put my own spin on things by electing to take my lumps with the RL's instead of playing the bad odds associated with a heavy favorite. I got gamed up and learned a new way to align myself with the sportsbooks while still streaming.
If you watched the Billy Walters interview with Joe Rogan (which you didn't) he touched on some things that I naturally do like line my own games that have spreads (NBA, MLB and FBALL) and also adding on a unit for each +0.5 point he can find in a matchup. The material is out there for realizing the amount a MLB team should win by according to the line. Of course there are hiccups-I just will be throwing those out-(such as the pitcher not having it that day, a managerial decision, bad baserunning etc) and look a those human errors as collateral damage and move on.
For the situation that i am making moves on the teams that I am blasting away on should win by +3.3 runs on average and combined scoring should be in the range of 9 runs or so without the collateral damage I was speaking about. So if you as a reader want a better win percentage then you should just bet the ML. if you want sustained long term money management then do as i do.
Lay these straight. Do not parlay these moves. The TOTAL move for 1 UNIT is for protection against the issues surrounding betting the RL instead of the MLComment -
My CRUMBS POD Streamer of the day is
Cardinals (Mikolas) He can spin sliders a ton and get through six frames to give me my 5/3/1/K/W. Since he only has 2% ownership that gives me a chance to get a return share of the 98%. Now what can be better than that?Comment -
BTW my BUY IN price for these moves is -122 or MORE-so the further the line is from -122 the more likely i am to buy EARLY as i did today. Yesterday I caught a line move for the Guardians that was at the very end before the event and got caught with my pants down-that won't happen any more-any number that is close to the edit will have corresponding late moves on them as I adapt.
As far as underdogs are concerned, I would use what i am doing as a guide to see if a number close to the buy in price goes south and closes BELOW my buy in price-the good underdog is easy to spot. Essentially I am performing in a such a manner as to if I was running a sportsbook. I see how it is now after yesterday with e Guardians. That shit ain't happenin againComment -
Be on standby. The Guardians may slide under -122, and if you took the RL at positive odds like me you can blast away on Twinkies with both moves at positive odds like a professional bettor. All of the other moves look smooth so farComment -
Everyone be on standby. The Guardians may end up being a BET OUT situation. The good thing here is that since the RL was bet I can get BOTH moves at POSITIVE ODDS if I choose to get out of it. I won't take a loss on something when I can help it-sort of like last night. Currently the line is
Guardians-128 which is LOWER than the OPENER of -130. As this thing goes along I will even more fine tune the BUY IN price by making an adjustment. it appears that -130 is fine if the number is a RISER, not a DROPPER. Oh well...carry on and check back later on.
You guys this is what it looks like to do data miningComment -
No problem! I wish to make this season an enjoyable one for those following my thread-I saw that I was taking too many one run losses and that i had to make a change. I was making life miserable for those who aren't streaming. Those who are streaming have made so much money that they may want to quit while this far ahead. My CRUMBS are 26-7 and a lot of those are on some wild 99% profit shares that pay WAY MORE than a conventional move unless you stake some high cheddar.
Yes let's strive to get paid
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Oh I almost forgot
Hard Rock Sportsbook Backed
SIDES
Buccos+120
Snakes+120
Twinkies+115 (See I knew something was up)
Jays+120
TOTALS
Nats/Blunts OVER 8.5
Giants/Fathers UNDER 6.5
Twinkies/Guardians OVER 8.5
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For those who like NBA I am
Pistons/Knicks OVER 214.5
Clippers ML (Prices vary)Comment -
NBA did me wrong yesterday, however my newfound MLB strategy is working pretty good. Are you guys seeing the type of scores that are happening?
Anyway here's today's list of my stuff
Rot.#924 Rays-1.5 +110 RL Rasmussen 2 UNITS
Rot.#923 Royals/Rays OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
Rot.#912 Blunts-1.5 -110 RL Sanchez 2 UNITS
Rot.#911 Nats/Blunts OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
Rot.#928 Wanderers-1.5 +140 RL Eovaldi 2 UNITS
Rot.#927 A's/Wanderers OVER 8 1 UNIT
ALSO Just to get it out of your systems
3 WAY ML PARLAY +264 I ODDS
Rays-185
Wanderers-150
Blunts-240Comment -
My CRUMBS POD is
Halos (Tyler Anderson#10) garnering only 18% of ownership this guy is the king of streaming and can easily get through 5 frames against a Sailors offense that is good but not great. It's puzzling that Hancock is such a prohibitive favorite for this one because the ceiling is too dang low for a guy ho hasn't perfected command of his offerings effectively; he needs to get that sinker inside and lean on the slider and changeup often. That's neither here nor there as it's not really the objective to get a team win in streaming-it's very individualized/ I can see Anderson getting through 5 and I don't see Hancock as is with eh plans that he exhibits on the bump getting through the Halos for 5 frames. An 82% share profit split is there for the money!Comment -
My MLB Record Update (Monitored at The Action Network)
148-143-10 (51%) +7.13 UNITS ROI +1.96
This is about to explode with what I am doing now tho. grecycle's thing is cool-there's just a whole lot more risk involved and one bad day can kill you betting all of that juice with 5 units at stake sometimes on a line that's -275 for instance.
Anyone who watched the Billy Walters interview clearly heard the man say that one of the worst issues for novice bettors is that they surrender too much vigorous. He is looking to make each move at the best odds and most of them at less than -110.
This plays into me going with the RL instead of the ML; and I will be upping the straight on the RL favorite side to 3 units soon. the total will stay at 1 unit because inmost cases I can only find a half or a point advantage at the most for those. As far as the sides are concerned I am seeing a +3.3 advantage for those. I am testing this system of mine out so I am taking it slow at first here. Y'all will know when make the switch to 3 units. If the ML's are to be involved use those specifically ONLY in ML parlays boysComment -
Oh man!
Tomorrow's CRUMBS POD will obviously be my draft choice
Cubs (Rea) 0%
I got so much of a return off of his last performance I was embarrassed to mention it here on the thread because it would look like I was bragging.
This man has 0% rostership, which means that only I and the Commish would split the return if he gets the 5/3/1/K/W. We all know that Skenes is gonna get his for sure, but who wants to split a 99% guy's return? You're getting pennies on the dollar and it's basically not worth mentioningComment -
Damn...I was just noticing something. The only team that has given me the double losses for my system are the Rays i this series vs the Royals, Very strange-they are a .500 team with a middling offense and middling pitching staff and yet they are blasting the Rays into submission in this series as big underdogs each night. That's awesome!Comment -
Blasting away on
Lakers-5.5Comment -
Wanderers have left the bases loaded twice-once with one out and once with no outs and only have 1 run-that's what I mean by collateral damage-a game and outcome like this i will just throw it out and move on. It was the right call with bad luck which happensComment -
I must be out of my mind...
Today's CRUMBS POD is
Cubs(Rea) 0%
I mean I drafted him for situations like this one so I must use him since I have him on my roster. And what's good about it-he is likely to get the 5/1/3/K/W against the BuccosComment -
Alright now that that's out the way-I will need s a few hours to see how the lines materialize for today's sides and totalsComment -
1:00 Rot.#961 Twinkies-110 FF ML Woods-Richardson 1 UNIT
1:00 Rot.#964 Rays-1.5 +115 ML Baz 2 UNITS
1:00 Rot.#963 Royals/Rays OVER 7.5 -130 1 UNIT
1:00 Rot.#956 Metropolitans-1.5 +1115 RL Senga 2 UNITS
1:00 Rot.#955 Snakes/Metropolitans OVER 7.5 1 UNIT
9:30 Rot.#960 Giants-1.5 -105 Verlander 2 UNITS
9:30 Rot.#959 Rox/Giants OVER 7.5 1 UNIT
4 WAY ML PARLAY +5.43
Giants-275 ML
Metropolitans-170 ML
Rays-170 ML
Twinkies-110 FF ML
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