on3's MLB 2025 Opening Day System

[grecycle99]

Are you updating profit after each set of series are completed? Instead of day to day? Once STL is completed then you'll update the profit total?

Yes only updating after all series are finish

[J.M. Disciple]

Are you updating profit after each set of series are completed? Instead of day to day? Once STL is completed then you'll update the profit total?

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/1/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 4-0; Profit: 0.53 units
Filtered System: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0; profit: 0 units

Total (3 systems) : 4-0; Profit: 0.53 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 2-2; 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 5 * 16.31
(B) 2 * 16.31
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/1/2025

(B) St Louis -129 to win 1.64U

Filtered

No Play

5/2
No Play

[grecycle99]

My first time paying attention to this system so my apologies for the questions - but it looks like TAMPA BAY ML moved back to -174 or so. In situations where lines move all day into/out of play territory or RL changes to ML bets do we just keep these in play or try to cancel it out if we find them?

Don't worry. When the line is falling below -145, the play becomes a no play. If the line goes over -145, the team becomes a play. If the line goes below -190, the play is going from RL to ML and vice versa. I use the closing line on pinnacle to grade the play. But sometime I'm not around to upgrade the play. Thanks

[daneault23]

My first time paying attention to this system so my apologies for the questions - but it looks like TAMPA BAY ML moved back to -174 or so. In situations where lines move all day into/out of play territory or RL changes to ML bets do we just keep these in play or try to cancel it out if we find them?

[daneault23]

Thanks for updating Grecycle - looks like BAL won anyway

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 03/31/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 4-0; Profit: 0.53 units
Filtered System: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0; profit: 0 units

Total (3 systems) : 4-0; Profit: 0.53 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 2-2; 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 16 * 12.48
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 03/31/2025

(A) LA Dodgers RL -114 to win 1.25U
(A) Philadelphia RL -141 to win 1.25U
(A) St Louis -149 to win 1.25U
(A) Tampa Bay RL +119 to win 1.25U
(A) Toronto -162 to win 1.25U

Filtered

(A) Philadelphia RL -141 to win 1.25U

5/2
No Play

[daneault23]

Looks like BAL is flopping back and forth between a play and no play based on Pinnacle odds.

[grecycle99]

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[grecycle99]

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[morri1962]

Excellent start

[Tomatero]

The unit size is up to you. but for record I use a 20$ unit so yes 2.32u is 40.64$

Gracias amigo.

[grecycle99]

So 2.32u =$40. 64??

The unit size is up to you. but for record I use a 20$ unit so yes 2.32u is 40.64$

[Tomatero]

So 2.32u =$40. 64??

[skyscrapers]

Pinnacle

Thank you.

[grecycle99]

Which book or site do you use for tracking the odds?

Pinnacle

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 03/30/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0; profit: 0 units

Total (3 systems) : 0-0; Profit: 0 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 2 * 23.18
(B) 1 * 23.18
(C) 2 * 23.18

REGULAR FOR 03/30/2025

(C) Tampa Bay -176 to win 2.32U

Filtered
No Play

5/2
No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 03/29/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0; profit: 0 units

Total (3 systems) : 0-0; Profit: 0 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 2 * 15.27
(B) 4 * 15.27
(C)

REGULAR FOR 03/29/2025

(B) Kansas City -108 to win 1.53U
(B) Tampa Bay -179 to win 1.53U

Filtered
No Play

5/2
No Play

[imotiv8]

Let’s get it! Tread carefully before the 15th

[skyscrapers]

Which book or site do you use for tracking the odds?

[Tomatero]

I'll do my best to put together a reference post for this year's thread, especially since the labby lines are not very apparent.

We look at the first game of a 3 or 4 game series and any home favorites above -145 qualifies as a play. If the favorite is above -190, the play will be on the run line to shorten the odds. Filtered plays are the same criteria plus the total being Over 9 in the first game. The 5/2 series begins on the B bet of the Filtered series (i.e. the 5/2 series starts when the A bet of a Filtered series loses). The system tracks across 3 games, and a series finishes when the favorite wins or loses 3 games in a row. The 4th game of a series is not tracked in this system.

The first play in the 5/2 series is to win 5U on the B bet of a Filtered series. If that loses, then the C bet is to win what was lost in the B bet plus 2 units. This series is treated separate from the labby lines.

The labby lines are used for a combination of Regular and Filtered plays. Filtered plays are also Regular plays, so the system effectively plays them twice with the labby. (The 5/2 are Filtered plays that lost the A bet, so you would technically be playing the B and C bets of the Filtered plays 3 times if playing the 5/2 and the labby lines).

The labby lines need two numbers for each play. Tracking for this system uses 10s when adding new numbers to the line and 20 is treated as 1U (2x10), but your units may vary. A win eliminates two numbers from the labby line and a loss is added as a new number to the labby line. New numbers (10) are added as needed for new plays or to spread risk. It may be easiest to consider all plays as 1 total labby line as opposed to having separate labby lines for A, B, and C bets.

Using opening day as an example, there were 3 regular plays so the system started with 6 10s.
10 10 10 10 10 10

SEA and LAD won, while KC lost, so 4 numbers are eliminated and the KC loss (31.60 at -158 odds) is added to the line.
10 10 10 10 10 10 31.60

At the end of the day, there were 3 numbers left on the line: 10 10 31.60. The day 2 line (post #13) shows there were 5 total numbers; 3 on the A bet and 2 on the B bet. This means that 2 10s were then added to the lines, giving:
10 10 31.60 10 10

To spread risk, the numbers are averaged. The total line is 71.60 (4x10 + 31.60) divided by the 5 numbers, giving a new line of 5 x 14.32. Day 2 shows an A bet and a B bet and numbers are moved between the A, B, and C lines as needed. Therefore, 2 numbers are shown on the B line and 3 were left on the A line, giving:
Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 14.32
(B) 2 * 14.32
(C)

For the next play, the numbers are rounded up to the next tenth for the next play, so TB is at 1.44U = 14.40 x 2 = 28.80. TB lost the run line last night, so 28.80 will now be added to the line.
14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 28.80.

To summarize the lines above:
Day 1 before games: 10 10 10 10 10 10
Day 1 after games (2W, 1L, 2 numbers added): 10 10 31.60 10 10
Day 2 before games (Day 1 after line averaged): 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32
Day 2 after games (1L): 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 28.80

Big thanks to grecycle99 for both tracking the plays and the line for years. There are many of us (including lurkers like myself) who are very appreciative of all that you do day in and day out.

Thanks you amigo

[TrojanMan8]

I'll do my best to put together a reference post for this year's thread, especially since the labby lines are not very apparent.

We look at the first game of a 3 or 4 game series and any home favorites above -145 qualifies as a play. If the favorite is above -190, the play will be on the run line to shorten the odds. Filtered plays are the same criteria plus the total being Over 9 in the first game. The 5/2 series begins on the B bet of the Filtered series (i.e. the 5/2 series starts when the A bet of a Filtered series loses). The system tracks across 3 games, and a series finishes when the favorite wins or loses 3 games in a row. The 4th game of a series is not tracked in this system.

The first play in the 5/2 series is to win 5U on the B bet of a Filtered series. If that loses, then the C bet is to win what was lost in the B bet plus 2 units. This series is treated separate from the labby lines.

The labby lines are used for a combination of Regular and Filtered plays. Filtered plays are also Regular plays, so the system effectively plays them twice with the labby. (The 5/2 are Filtered plays that lost the A bet, so you would technically be playing the B and C bets of the Filtered plays 3 times if playing the 5/2 and the labby lines).

The labby lines need two numbers for each play. Tracking for this system uses 10s when adding new numbers to the line and 20 is treated as 1U (2x10), but your units may vary. A win eliminates two numbers from the labby line and a loss is added as a new number to the labby line. New numbers (10) are added as needed for new plays or to spread risk. It may be easiest to consider all plays as 1 total labby line as opposed to having separate labby lines for A, B, and C bets.

Using opening day as an example, there were 3 regular plays so the system started with 6 10s.
10 10 10 10 10 10

SEA and LAD won, while KC lost, so 4 numbers are eliminated and the KC loss (31.60 at -158 odds) is added to the line.
10 10 10 10 10 10 31.60

At the end of the day, there were 3 numbers left on the line: 10 10 31.60. The day 2 line (post #13) shows there were 5 total numbers; 3 on the A bet and 2 on the B bet. This means that 2 10s were then added to the lines, giving:
10 10 31.60 10 10

To spread risk, the numbers are averaged. The total line is 71.60 (4x10 + 31.60) divided by the 5 numbers, giving a new line of 5 x 14.32. Day 2 shows an A bet and a B bet and numbers are moved between the A, B, and C lines as needed. Therefore, 2 numbers are shown on the B line and 3 were left on the A line, giving:
Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 14.32
(B) 2 * 14.32
(C)

For the next play, the numbers are rounded up to the next tenth for the next play, so TB is at 1.44U = 14.40 x 2 = 28.80. TB lost the run line last night, so 28.80 will now be added to the line.
14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 28.80.

To summarize the lines above:
Day 1 before games: 10 10 10 10 10 10
Day 1 after games (2W, 1L, 2 numbers added): 10 10 31.60 10 10
Day 2 before games (Day 1 after line averaged): 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32
Day 2 after games (1L): 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 14.32 28.80

Big thanks to grecycle99 for both tracking the plays and the line for years. There are many of us (including lurkers like myself) who are very appreciative of all that you do day in and day out.

[takethepnts]

yes its for the next game on 29

Thanks Grecycle... Have a super wknd ..

[Tomatero]

I DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS PART WELL, COULD YOU EXPLAIN IT TO ME? IM NEW ON THIS THREAD,THANKS
Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 14.32
(B) 2 * 14.32
(C)

[grecycle99]

KCR FOR Satuday 29th ? I don't see them on today's slate ?

yes its for the next game on 29

[takethepnts]

UPDATED for 03/28/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0;

(A) Tampa Bay RL -1.5 +103 to win 1.44U
(B) Kansas City -158 to win 1.44U

Filtered
No Play

5/2
No Play

KCR FOR Satuday 29th ? I don't see them on today's slate ?

[Tomatero]

no but the line is the same for A, B and C. Every day, each play is to win the same amount. We found that through the years this cause less unit losses that way. But the inconvenient is that the line is becoming high at times.

Ok thanks buddy

[grecycle99]

no but the line is the same for A, B and C. Every day, each play is to win the same amount. We found that through the years this cause less unit losses that way. But the inconvenient is that the line is becoming high at times.

[Tomatero]

you have to see this as a straight line across the A, B and C. when a play win, you cross 2 numbers and a loss you had a number. I do an average on the numbers left.

One labby for each series??

[grecycle99]

Dont understand that labby, can you tell me??

you have to see this as a straight line across the A, B and C. when a play win, you cross 2 numbers and a loss you had a number. I do an average on the numbers left.

[Tomatero]

Dont understand that labby, can you tell me??

[grecycle99]

New series today??

Tampa as a RL, sorry for being late

[grecycle99]

Sea is 4 game just thought I should let u know I don’t think that’s a play? Correct ?

only the 2 game series are a no play. A 4 game serie means that you play the first 3, it's up to you to play the 4th but record purposes, if the 3rd game lose, its a loss

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 03/28/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0; profit: 0 units

Total (3 systems) : 0-0; Profit: 0 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 14.32
(B) 2 * 14.32
(C)

REGULAR FOR 03/28/2025

(A) Tampa Bay RL -1.5 +103 to win 1.44U
(B) Kansas City -158 to win 1.44U

Filtered
No Play

5/2
No Play

[Tomatero]

New series today??