on3's MLB 2025 Opening Day System

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/05/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 48-1; Profit: 28.52 units
Filtered System: 10-0; Profit: 14.79 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 62-1; Profit: 60.31 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 32-17; 6-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 6 * 10
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/05/2025

(A) Chicago Cubs -169 to win 1U
(A) Kansas City RL -101 to win 1U
(A) NY Yankees -159 to win 1U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[Deenoz]

Hey grecycle, what about the Cardinals?

[grecycle99]

Hey grecycle, what about the Cardinals?

They are -127

[J.M. Disciple]

I think that JMD is correct in one thing-if the teams are such prohibitive favorites why not use the RL and get better odds? May cost a few in win % but it's always better to make bets at + odds more than - odds over the course of a season. Pus that way the losses are cleaner-in most cases just a clean unit instead of -275 and so on...

I only chose RL on -190 higher favorites. Sticking to the system the way it was back tested. The game I pointed out was still ML (-180) play 8 minutes before the first pitch. It's the only discrepancy in the system. Grecycle was correct on everything else. If they only won by 1 run I'm sure grecycle would have added a B game.

[atthehalf]

Sheeit! I am actually quite sure that you would have more CRUMBS betting those high chalkers on the RL only each time in the long run over the course of a season. I have been doing this since 1996. There's no way you can convince me that if you were to play these all on the RL and then PARLAY only the high chalkers with their ML's that you wouldn't clear more units with less risk money put out. In some cases you can see progressive ML PARLAYS on some of these because you can see a team around 2:00 PM for the ML's for both days. Like say the Bombers are -230 on Tuesday and also -300 on Wednesday, and then at the same time the Dodgers are -260 on Tuesday and -290 on Wednesday. Well you can bet teams on the RL at -110 odds both days and do a progressive ML parlay on them over the course of both days too to sweeten the pot. Anyway carry on. I have no business disturbing what y'all got going on over here

[J.M. Disciple]

Sheeit! I am actually quite sure that you would have more CRUMBS betting those high chalkers on the RL only each time in the long run over the course of a season. I have been doing this since 1996. There's no way you can convince me that if you were to play these all on the RL and then PARLAY only the high chalkers with their ML's that you wouldn't clear more units with less risk money put out. In some cases you can see progressive ML PARLAYS on some of these because you can see a team around 2:00 PM for the ML's for both days. Like say the Bombers are -230 on Tuesday and also -300 on Wednesday, and then at the same time the Dodgers are -260 on Tuesday and -290 on Wednesday. Well you can bet teams on the RL at -110 odds both days and do a progressive ML parlay on them over the course of both days too to sweeten the pot. Anyway carry on. I have no business disturbing what y'all got going on over here

I posted the spread sheet of this season with the scores of each game. Why do you take a look at how many games won by 1 run vs 2+. Run the math and see what comes out on top. This system has a 15 year back test. Going to trust the data over someone's opinion.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/05/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 48-1; Profit: 28.52 units
Filtered System: 10-0; Profit: 14.79 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 62-1; Profit: 60.31 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 32-17; 6-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 4 * 13.64
(B) 2 * 13.64
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/05/2025

(A) Minnesota -165 to win 1.37U
(B) NY Yankees -119 to win 1.37U

Filtered

(A) Minnesota -165 to win 1.37U

5/2

No Play

[J.M. Disciple]

I posted the spread sheet of this season with the scores of each game. Why do you take a look at how many games won by 1 run vs 2+. Run the math and see what comes out on top. This system has a 15 year back test. Going to trust the data over someone's opinion.

Incase anyone was wondering I counted 15 games where the favorite won by exactly 1 win. 10 of those games the system had money line instead of run line. So betting the -1.5 would result in 10 additional losses. I don't know the math on it, but for a system to have 48 wins and it would only be 38 wins of 73 (52%) on the run line. Doesn't seem very profitable. The labby line would take a lot longer to clear trying to avoid the juice. A 38-35 record flat betting the RL isn't going to show as much profit. These are the 10 games I found where ML won and RL would have lost. There are no short cuts in making money. We just have to embrace the variance of the juice.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 07/05/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 52-1; Profit: 31.67 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 67-1; Profit: 64.83 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 35-18; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 4 * 10.00
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 07/05/2025

No Play

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/09/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 52-1; Profit: 31.67 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 67-1; Profit: 64.83 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 35-18; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 4 * 10.00
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/09/2025

(A) Detroit RL -136 to win 1U
(A) Houston -186 to win 1U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[daneault23]

Good luck on all the plays this weekend - and Happy Mother's (single Father's) Day to all!

Quick question - are we changing up the date formats now

UPDATED for 05/01/2025
UPDATED for 05/02/2025
UPDATED for 05/03/2025
UPDATED for 05/05/2025
UPDATED for 06/05/2025
UPDATED for 07/05/2025
UPDATED for 09/05/2025

[Deenoz]

should Mariners be on the watch list? they are -152

[grecycle99]

should Mariners be on the watch list? they are -152

I placed them earlier on the watch list but they are still only -140

[grecycle99]

should Mariners be on the watch list? they are -152

Don't forget that I use pinnacle for the plays! SEA line never went higher than -142! Even if they are over -145 on other sites they only become a play on pinnacle!

[Deenoz]

Don't forget that I use pinnacle for the plays! SEA line never went higher than -142! Even if they are over -145 on other sites they only become a play on pinnacle!

yep, forgot that you only use Pinnacle.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/10/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 52-1; Profit: 31.67 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 67-1; Profit: 64.83 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 35-18; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 1 * 15.74
(B) 2 * 15.74
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/10/2025

(B) Detroit +115 to win 1.58U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[daneault23]

Looks like we can get Tigers at + money now before first pitch

[J.M. Disciple]

Looks like we can get Tigers at + money now before first pitch

I forgot if they are the dog do we play the +1.5? I had it available on my book when they were like -107 ML.

[grecycle99]

I forgot if they are the dog do we play the +1.5? I had it available on my book when they were like -107 ML.

you play them on ml