on3's MLB 2025 Opening Day System

[J.M. Disciple]

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 39.85
(B) 2 * 39.85
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/30/2025

(B) Tampa Bay -159 to win 3.99U


Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 5 * 47.46
(B)
(C) 2 * 47.46

REGULAR FOR 05/01/2025

(A) San Francisco RL -101 to win 4.75U
(C) Tampa Bay -160 to win 4.75U

How do you go from 5* 39.85 so 199.25 on the line to 47.46 * 7 for $322.22 on the line? I understand the TB B loss, but how do you go from 5#s to 7#s? Adding #s to keep bet size below 5 units? Which is fine, just asking.

[grecycle99]

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 39.85
(B) 2 * 39.85
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/30/2025

(B) Tampa Bay -159 to win 3.99U


Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 5 * 47.46
(B)
(C) 2 * 47.46

REGULAR FOR 05/01/2025

(A) San Francisco RL -101 to win 4.75U
(C) Tampa Bay -160 to win 4.75U

How do you go from 5* 39.85 so 199.25 on the line to 47.46 * 7 for $322.22 on the line? I understand the TB B loss, but how do you go from 5#s to 7#s? Adding #s to keep bet size below 5 units? Which is fine, just asking.

I added 1# for the loss and 1 for the new play!

[Tomatero]

Correct. Just keep 5#s on your line at all times. Subtract your wins or losses and avg out the line after each day. That way after wins your bets actually get smaller. At peak profit you start off with a fresh line. There is no need to cross off or add numbers to your line. You can if you want though. I would just cap the around 5 #s and either cross 1# or add 1# on the loss and avg it out.

Starting with #5 lines, and add 1 line for each series game??

[J.M. Disciple]

I added 1# for the loss and 1 for the new play!

If you already have 5-6#s on your line I wouldn't add additional numbers to the line when you only have two games. Just try and cross off 4 of the 6#s between the two games. Move the numbers down to the B or C line as needed.

I just went back and put into excel all the plays that were posted on here. I might have missed 1-2 plays that were on the "watching" list. I see a total of 68 plays that qualified, but I see only 60 games listed for the regular system for the record. Maybe there were 8 plays that were posted that no longer qualified? Or the record wasn't updated with the current pending series?

Game 1 (A) win = 26-14; 4-3; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-6; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-0; 1-0

I attached the date and all the plays listed. If you see one that is wrong, please let me know.

[J.M. Disciple]

Starting with #5 lines, and add 1 line for each series game??

I'm going to post a file with this system soon that shows everything. You start with 5 units on your line. 1 unit per #. This is your baseline. The line never goes below 5#s and never goes above 5#s. Just keep 5#s on your line at all times. If the line drops below 5 units, you start with a fresh line of "5u / 5" betting to win 1 unit each play. If you have a losing day you take your baseline of 5 units + the amount you lost and add it to the line. Then avg out the line. 5U + loss (3u) now you have "8u / 5" = 1.6u per play. You just rinse and repeat this method until you show a peak profit. I'll post excel file soon to show you what the variance and profit looks like this season.

This method manages your money and reduces you risk of ruin. However, it will show less profit overall because its not as progressive. When you get a sweep the line will clear.

Method #2 is just a 1 strike method.
Cross 1# off when you win a game or add 1# when you lose a game and avg out the line. This method means you have to win more than 50% of the time to clear the line. Where the current method is cross off two #s when you win and add 1# when you lose you need to win 33% of the time to clear the line.

I'll test both methods and post the results soon.

[J.M. Disciple]

REGULAR FOR 04/8/2025

(A) Cleveland -186 to win 1.65U
(A) Tampa Bay -165 to win 1.65U
(B) San Francisco -127 to win 1.65u

I am finding a few plays that are listed as ML, but when I check scores and odds they should be RL. CLE -186 listed here, but closed at -205 on the site, so should be -1.5 RL play. And they only won 1-0. There was another one with TB but they lost 1-2 anyway, so reduces some of the variance, at least for testing. But Cle should be a B play on the 9th.

[J.M. Disciple]

grecycle99 Apologies in advance for crapping on the system. I found a few discrepancies in the tracking.

1) March 29th TB listed as -179 ML play, but closing line should be a RL (+110) play (ML -198)

2) April 8th Cle listed as -186 ML, but should be a RL (+110) play (ML -205)

3) April 9th I added Cle ML (-180) as a "B" play since they won 1-0 on the A-game.

4) April 18th ATL ML listed as -146, but closed at -142, so no play? (I'm not sure about the rule on this one) If it goes above -145 does it qualify even though it drops below?

5) April 22nd Arz listed as -165 ML, but should be RL (+105) closing ML (-192)

6) April 27th A's listed as -182 ML, but should be RL at -192 closing line. Losing series as a C wager. Won 3-2.

7) April 29th Phi listed as -181 ML, but should be RL -192 closing line.

8) April 30th I added Phi as a "B" play -1.5 RL (-112 odds) since they won "A" 7 to 6.



I attached excel file for the date, team, odds, and scores for each game. Discrepancies highlighted in yellow.

RECORD:
A) 26-18 *SF PENDING
B) 11 - 7
C) 5 - 2 *Losses April 27th As RL instead of ML & TB May 1st.

[J.M. Disciple]

Ok final update from me today. This is what the 5 number line looks like based on the closing line at scoresandodds. I updated all money lines on the excel sheet.



You can see how I managed the baseline in the excel file attached. Overall, its only up 6 units. With a peak profit of 19.84 units. The biggest bet coming in today on TB (-166) for $90.95 to win $56.14 or 4.55 units to win 2.81u.

I'll do one more test tomorrow on the 1 strike method (cross 1 or add 1).

[grecycle99]

grecycle99 Apologies in advance for crapping on the system. I found a few discrepancies in the tracking.

1) March 29th TB listed as -179 ML play, but closing line should be a RL (+110) play (ML -198)

2) April 8th Cle listed as -186 ML, but should be a RL (+110) play (ML -205)

3) April 9th I added Cle ML (-180) as a "B" play since they won 1-0 on the A-game.

4) April 18th ATL ML listed as -146, but closed at -142, so no play? (I'm not sure about the rule on this one) If it goes above -145 does it qualify even though it drops below?

5) April 22nd Arz listed as -165 ML, but should be RL (+105) closing ML (-192)

6) April 27th A's listed as -182 ML, but should be RL at -192 closing line. Losing series as a C wager. Won 3-2.

7) April 29th Phi listed as -181 ML, but should be RL -192 closing line.

8) April 30th I added Phi as a "B" play -1.5 RL (-112 odds) since they won "A" 7 to 6.



I attached excel file for the date, team, odds, and scores for each game. Discrepancies highlighted in yellow.

RECORD:
A) 26-18 *SF PENDING
B) 11 - 7
C) 5 - 2 *Losses April 27th As RL instead of ML & TB May 1st.

I use pinnacle for closing line not scoresandodds, probably why! The site I use is down, I will check them tomorrow

[loutrigs]

Lololol another losing day this is getting disgusting **** this

[takethepnts]

Lololol another losing day this is getting disgusting **** this

Who the fk are you? To come on here laughing it up . Get the fk outta here. This guy's taking the time to post this system up the best he can . If you have nothing good to say.. **** off and get lost.

Fkn tard. I can't stand foolish and negative people that DISECT every move from a system that's tracked daily for 6 months. USE it as a guide and work out your own Money management and discipline. No one's charging for this shit. You don't like it . Take a hike off the site or don't click the link.

Grecycle .. thanks for running it. Keep doing what you do exactly as you do it.

[grecycle99]

Who the fk are you? To come on here laughing it up . Get the fk outta here. This guy's taking the time to post this system up the best he can . If you have nothing good to say.. **** off and get lost.

Fkn tard. I can't stand foolish and negative people that DISECT every move from a system that's tracked daily for 6 months. USE it as a guide and work out your own Money management and discipline. No one's charging for this shit. You don't like it . Take a hike off the site or don't click the link.

Grecycle .. thanks for running it. Keep doing what you do exactly as you do it.

Thanks my friend, I knew that some trolls would get out with a loss loll

[grecycle99]

grecycle99 Apologies in advance for crapping on the system. I found a few discrepancies in the tracking.

1) March 29th TB listed as -179 ML play, but closing line should be a RL (+110) play (ML -198) On Pinny, they closes at -177 so a ML

2) April 8th Cle listed as -186 ML, but should be a RL (+110) play (ML -205) On Pinny, they closes at -181 so a ML

3) April 9th I added Cle ML (-180) as a "B" play since they won 1-0 on the A-game. They were not a play on B because they won on A

4) April 18th ATL ML listed as -146, but closed at -142, so no play? (I'm not sure about the rule on this one) If it goes above -145 does it qualify even though it drops below? On Pinny, they closes at -146 so was a play finally

5) April 22nd Arz listed as -165 ML, but should be RL (+105) closing ML (-192) On Pinny, they closes at -178 so a ML

6) April 27th A's listed as -182 ML, but should be RL at -192 closing line. Losing series as a C wager. Won 3-2. On Pinny, they closes at -1771 so ML and won the series

7) April 29th Phi listed as -181 ML, but should be RL -192 closing line. On Pinny, they closes at -185 so a ML

8) April 30th I added Phi as a "B" play -1.5 RL (-112 odds) since they won "A" 7 to 6. Since they won on ML, they were not a play on B



I attached excel file for the date, team, odds, and scores for each game. Discrepancies highlighted in yellow.

RECORD:
A) 26-18 *SF PENDING
B) 11 - 7
C) 5 - 2 *Losses April 27th As RL instead of ML & TB May 1st.

If you use scoresandodds and I use pinnacle (I mentionned it on page 1, I think), that explain the discrepancies you have. They have a really big difference between the two. for the record, I redid it and find that I made a mistake on 2-3 occasions. Thank you

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/02/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 40-0; Profit: 28.06 units
Filtered System: 8-0; Profit: 3.76 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 52-0; Profit: 48.82 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 26-14; 4-3; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-6; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-0; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 16* 40.05
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/02/2025

(A) Cincinnati RL -101 to win 4.01U
(A) NY Yankees RL -109 to win 4.01U
(A) Philadelphia -156 to win 4.01U
(A) Toronto -170 to win to win 4.01U
(B) San Francisco RL -131 to win 4.01U

Filtered

(A) Cincinnati RL -101 to win 4.01U
(A) NY Yankees RL -109 to win 4.01U
(A) Philadelphia -156 to win 4.01U

5/2

No Play

[skyscrapers]

I have a Pinny account so I can usually see the closing line first-hand if I'm not busy. I compare that with other line-tracking services and I find the most accurate info can be found right here on SBR.

Just click on Odds on the SBR menu and then select the game and then select Pinnacle and all the info is right there time-stamped too. Like Grecycle said the numbers are way off compared to Scoresandodds which is based on Bookmaker odds.

[takethepnts]

Thanks my friend, I knew that some trolls would get out with a loss loll

ANYTIME . The Countless , randoms that come onto a post spouting nonsense like the world owes them something, and can't think for themselves is unreal . Critical thinking has gone straight our the window .

Thanks again for taking your time to track and post each day .. Have a super wknd

[grecycle99]

ANYTIME . The Countless , randoms that come onto a post spouting nonsense like the world owes them something, and can't think for themselves is unreal . Critical thinking has gone straight our the window .

Thanks again for taking your time to track and post each day .. Have a super wknd

Thanks have a great weekend too

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks for the response. The pinnacle vs bookmaker odds makes perfect sense.

Is it possible to edit the post with closing odds the following day or post the previous daily results with the closing lines? In basketball you would post the results being red or green for each play. MLB only posting the current plays.

[grecycle99]

Thanks for the response. The pinnacle vs bookmaker odds makes perfect sense.

Is it possible to edit the post with closing odds the following day or post the previous daily results with the closing lines? In basketball you would post the results being red or green for each play. MLB only posting the current plays.

Yes I will in the future. Usually, I do it through the day.

[J.M. Disciple]

May be a dumb question but how do you change the date on pinnacle to look at the past results? I adjusted the odds based on your notes above and removed the two B-games I added. I'll post an updated sheet when everything is more organized.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/baseball/matchups/

[J.M. Disciple]

I have a Pinny account so I can usually see the closing line first-hand if I'm not busy. I compare that with other line-tracking services and I find the most accurate info can be found right here on SBR.

Just click on Odds on the SBR menu and then select the game and then select Pinnacle and all the info is right there time-stamped too. Like Grecycle said the numbers are way off compared to Scoresandodds which is based on Bookmaker odds.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/mlb-baseball/

Where do you see Pinnacle odds? Is Pinnacle under a different name?

[skyscrapers]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/mlb-baseball/

Where do you see Pinnacle odds? Is Pinnacle under a different name?

Are you in the USA? The reason I ask is that Pinnacle is not available to USA players and cannot be accessed in the USA. I wonder if that's why you're unable to see the lines. All I have to do is select the game from whichever date and click line history and then select Pinnacle and all the numbers are there.

[grecycle99]

May be a dumb question but how do you change the date on pinnacle to look at the past results? I adjusted the odds based on your notes above and removed the two B-games I added. I'll post an updated sheet when everything is more organized.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/baseball/matchups/

I use this

https://odds.bookmakersreview.com/

You click on settings and arrange your books, like example I put pinnacle first.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/03/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 48-1; Profit: 28.52 units
Filtered System: 10-0; Profit: 14.79 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 62-1; Profit: 60.31 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 32-17; 6-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 4 * 10
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/03/2025

No Play

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[daneault23]

UPDATED for 05/02/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 40-0; Profit: 28.06 units
Filtered System: 8-0; Profit: 3.76 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 52-0; Profit: 48.82 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 26-14; 4-3; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-6; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-0; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 16* 40.05
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/02/2025

(A) Cincinnati RL -101 to win 4.01U
(A) NY Yankees RL -109 to win 4.01U
(A) Philadelphia -156 to win 4.01U
(A) Toronto -170 to win to win 4.01U
(B) San Francisco RL -131 to win 4.01U

Filtered

(A) Cincinnati RL -101 to win 4.01U
(A) NY Yankees RL -109 to win 4.01U
(A) Philadelphia -156 to win 4.01U

5/2

No Play

If you were at +28.06 units for Regular A bets prior to yesterday, with the SF B bet pending, and you swept them all yesterday, wouldn't the regular unit count be 28.06+(4*4.01)-(4.75*1.01)+4.01-18.22=25.09 units

Similar on the Filtered bets, if you were +3.76 prior to yesterday's sweep, wouldn't you be 3.76+(4.01*3)=15.79 units

[grecycle99]

If you were at +28.06 units for Regular A bets prior to yesterday, with the SF B bet pending, and you swept them all yesterday, wouldn't the regular unit count be 28.06+(4*4.01)-(4.75*1.01)+4.01-18.22=25.09 units

Similar on the Filtered bets, if you were +3.76 prior to yesterday's sweep, wouldn't you be 3.76+(4.01*3)=15.79 units

you are missing the april 28-30 series on your calculation! I only updated after 2 set of series. I recalculated, I was off 0.5 units. and I updated the closing lines since april 28

[J.M. Disciple]

user error

[J.M. Disciple]

I use this

https://odds.bookmakersreview.com/

You click on settings and arrange your books, like example I put pinnacle first.

Thank you! This helped! Going to back through the plays and find all the closing lines. Maybe because I was on my phone or something before I was able to do this, but now I can see Pinnacle lines. Thank you.

[J.M. Disciple]

grecycle99 I only found one error checking the pinnacle lines on April 18th listed Mil at -180 ML but it's -192 closing line. But it was like a minute before the game that it jumped 12 points.



REGULAR FOR 04/18/2025

(A) Atlanta -146 to win 1U
(A) Baltimore -162 to win 1U
(A) Boston RL -105 to win 1U
(A) Houston -159 to win 1U
(A) Milwaukee -180 to win 1U
(A) Philadelphia RL -103 to win 1U

[J.M. Disciple]

I attached all the regular system plays with pinnacle close lines for those who want a tracking record.

A) 32-17
B) 10-7
C) 6-1

Records line up with what you posted on the 3rd. Just very small line differences. Mil is the only one I saw where ML switched to RL last minute.

[J.M. Disciple]

This is on3 regular system using the 1 strike labby approach. 1 strike approach just means when you lose, you add the loss to the line or cross off one number when you win. Average out the line after each day. A couple of rules I put in place was to 1) start with a fresh line if you reach peak profit. 2) If you have 3 units on your line at "$30 x 2" for example, but 5 games for that day you start with a fresh line "$20 x 5." Rather than adding additional money to the line.

Using this method the system is up almost 17 units for the regular system. However, the biggest risk on the season was only 2.7 units and never had to bet to win more than 1.6 units.

I think this method still allows us to make substantial profit without the risk of ruin. Biggest swing was from +$320 to +177 about ($143) 7.15 unit swing.

[Deenoz]

that's awesome, thank you JMD for sharing that with us.
and thank you Grecycle for sharing and posting this system.

I will be following with the 1 strike labby.

[atthehalf]

I think that JMD is correct in one thing-if the teams are such prohibitive favorites why not use the RL and get better odds? May cost a few in win % but it's always better to make bets at + odds more than - odds over the course of a season. Pus that way the losses are cleaner-in most cases just a clean unit instead of -275 and so on...

[grecycle99]

grecycle99 I only found one error checking the pinnacle lines on April 18th listed Mil at -180 ML but it's -192 closing line. But it was like a minute before the game that it jumped 12 points.



REGULAR FOR 04/18/2025

(A) Atlanta -146 to win 1U
(A) Baltimore -162 to win 1U
(A) Boston RL -105 to win 1U
(A) Houston -159 to win 1U
(A) Milwaukee -180 to win 1U
(A) Philadelphia RL -103 to win 1U

I didn't went back and change all the lines to the closing lines. I would have changed it at the time if MIL would had lost but they won by 2 thats why I didn't change it. But from now on, the lines will updated to the closing line. Thanks

[grecycle99]

I think that JMD is correct in one thing-if the teams are such prohibitive favorites why not use the RL and get better odds? May cost a few in win % but it's always better to make bets at + odds more than - odds over the course of a season. Pus that way the losses are cleaner-in most cases just a clean unit instead of -275 and so on...

We already are using the RL for odds -190 and greater