Tuesday Front Page Picks (July 31)

Willie Bee · 07-31-07, 09:23 AM

Chalk up Indians -220 to scalp Rangers

Game Time: 07/31/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Carmona beat McCarthy in Texas less than two weeks ago, and he has been almost unhittable in his last three starts. Lay the big wood with the Tribe.

This matchup between the Texas Rangers and the Cleveland Indians should be a mismatch.

McCarthy got hit fairly hard in his last start, giving up eight hits and three runs in just five innings. For the season, he has an extremely poor 6.16 ERA and 1.76 WHIP on the road, with his team going 3-5 in those eight games.

On the other hand, the Indians are 8-2 when Carmona starts at home and 14-6 in his 20 starts overall. Carmona's seasonal statistics are terrific, as he is 13-4 with a 3.31 ERA. However, his recent stats are even better. Over his last three starts Carmona has gone 3-0 with a miniscule 0.78 ERA. In fact, over his last two starts, he has allowed no earned runs in 16 complete innings!

Carmona beat McCarthy at Texas less than two weeks ago, and now he's got the advantage of facing him here at home where his team averages nearly six runs per game. Lay the big price with Cleveland.

Free Pick: Indians -220

Willie Bee · 07-31-07, 09:24 AM

Giants, Dodgers to soar Over 7½ (-112)

Game Time: 07/31/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Dodgers have given Penny excellent run support, and they have hit southpaws like Lowry well all year. The Giants should score some too, so go Over.

Well, the San Francisco Giants have left town, and unfortunately for the hometown fans, Barry Bonds is still stuck at 754 home runs and now heads out on the road to Los Angeles for three games. The Giants then head to San Diego for three and will not be back in AT&T Park until August 6.

There is a good chance that Bonds will not break the record in Los Angeles, as he has only hit one homer in 29 at-bats here this season, and he may very well get at least one of the nights off. However, that does not mean other players will not be doing their share of run-scoring.

When right-hander Brad Penny steps to the mound lately for the Dodgers, runs just seem to accumulate. In Penny's last eight outings, the teams have scored a combined total of 84 runs or an average of 10.5 runs per game. In his last three starts especially, the Dodgers have relied more on run support than they have on Penny's stingy pitching as they have put up five, eight, and ten runs respectively to win those games.

Giants left-hander Noah Lowry has had a very good season, but he has struggled a bit recently in his starts, as the Giants have only won one of his last five. The Dodgers could bring more problems for Lowry as they are an excellent hitting team vs. southpaws, batting .287 vs. left-handed pitching.

Both teams should score their share of runs, so go Over this rather low total.

Free Pick: Giants, Dodgers Over 7½ (-112)

Willie Bee · 07-31-07, 09:25 AM

Play Cubs -126 to foil Phillies

Game Time: 07/31/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

The Chicago Cubs have won each of Jason Marquis’ last six starts, and they are still 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. right-handed starters. Lay the modest chalk here tonight.

Even with there win here last night, do not be afraid to go against the hard-charging Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

Yes, the Phillies have now won four straight after completing their first sweep of the low riding Pittsburgh Pirates this past weekend since 2002. However, the Cubs are off of back-to-back series wins against Central Division opponents, and have now won seven of their last 11 games. Ever since Lou Piniella got himself thrown out of a Wrigley affair last month, this club has played solid baseball despite many short comings. Chicago, if they can cash this four-game series, will be taking dead aim on the fading Milwaukee Brewers, who lead the division.

With the Cubs a perfect 6-0 with in Jason Marquis’ last six starts and 20-7 vs. right-handed starting pitchers, we’re backing the home club big time.

Free Pick: Cubs -126

Willie Bee · 07-31-07, 09:27 AM

Bet Braves to batter Astros

Game Time: 07/31/2007 07:35 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The white flag has all but gone up officially in Houston for this season, and the Astros are horrible on the road. Back the Braves at home in Atlanta's Turner Field this evening.

In their last 33 road games the Astros are 8-25. In their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record, they are 8-20. Houston is 4-10 in their last 14 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Houston is 2-8 in Chris Sampson's last 10 starts as an underdog.

In their last 26 games following a day off the Braves are 19-7. In Chuck James' last eight starts as a home favorite the Braves are 6-2. The Braves are 7-2 in their last nine meetings with the Astros at home. Play on the Braves.

Free Pick: Braves -165

Willie Bee · 07-31-07, 10:22 AM

Bedard, O's the bet at Boston

Game Time: 07/31/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

It's a battle of staff aces tonight in Beantown. Take the value on the dogs tonight when Erik Bedard pitches the Baltimore Orioles past Josh Beckett and the Red Sox in Fenway.

The Baltimore Orioles roll into Beantown to try and derail the front-running Boston Red Sox. The Orioles have been playing good baseball recently as they put together a six-game winning streak and have won eight of their last 11. They are coming off a series versus the Yankess where they took two of three.

In the first game of the series the Orioles will be throwing their ace, Erik Bedard, at the Red Sox. Bedard is having a sensational season with a 10-4 mark and sizzling 3.05 ERA. Over his last three starts he has been untouchable going a perfect 3-0 with a microscopic 0.90 ERA. That should bode well for the Orioles as the Red Sox have had the most trouble with lefties this season.

The Red Sox come in sitting high atop the AL East and, barring an all-out collapse, should win the division. They have also been on a roll recently winning an identical eight of their last 11 ball games increasing their lead to eight games over the Yankees. The Red Sox will also be throwing their ace hurler on the mound today in Josh Beckett who, like Bedard is having a great season with a 13-4 mark and a 3.27 ERA. He has struggled at home a bit this season as he ERA jumps up to 4.38 and is 1-1 his last two home starts.

Supporting Angles: Bedard is 9-1 (+8.5 Units) against the moneyline in July games over the last two seasons. Boston is 41-46 (-19.9 Units) against the moneyline against left-handed starters over the last two seasons and 17-25 (-22.5 Units) against the moneyline vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.

If there is any kink in Boston it is that they struggle versus left-handed pitching and have actually lost money this year. Today they go up against one of the best on the planet this season. It's worth taking a shot. I'm taking the Orioles in this one.

Free Pick: Orioles +135

Willie Bee · 07-31-07, 10:23 AM

Cash on Cards at Pirates tonight

Game Time: 07/31/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

The Pirates may be home in Pittsburgh in front of the home crowd, but their losing ways will continue this evening when the St. Louis Cardinals arrive at PNC Park for a 3-game set.

Could the Pirates be in a worse spot at home? Losers of 14 out of their last 17, on a miserable 2-8 run and not hitting well as a team. Off losing series against the Philles, Mets and Astros, look for the streak to continue.

Tonight the Cards send Adam Wainwright to the hill with an ERA of 3.32 in his last three starts, and a 4-2 road record. With the Pirates having a 10-game team batting average of just .227, they will find the going tough tonight. The Cardinals own this series at 39-16 their last 55 meetings and the Pirates are not a goog bet as a dog, dropping nine out of their 10 games as the underdog.

Paul Maholm takes to the hill for the Pirates tonight with a losing record at home, allowing 70 hits and 37 runs in 10 starts where he is 4-6. I doubt he has enough run support tonight as the Pirates simply cannot get out of their own way and are not getting runners in scoring position.

Free Pick: Cardinals -110

Willie Bee · 07-31-07, 10:25 AM

Tigers, Athletics Under 7½ as starters dominate

Game Time: 07/31/2007 10:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

A couple of Cy Young candidates hook up when Haren faces Verlander in Oakland tonight. Take the Under here, as runs should be at a premium.

This matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics pits two of the leading contenders for the American League Cy Young Award against each other.

Oakland’s Danny Haren is 12-3 for a team that is now eight games under .500, and the Athletics are 15-7 in all the games that he has started. Haren is among the league leaders with his fantastic 2.42 ERA, to go with an outstanding 1.05 WHIP in 149 innings. Almost unbelievably, Haren has allowed three earned runs or less in 21 of his 22 starts this season, including all 10 of his home starts!

Not to be outdone, Justin Verlander of the Tigers is 11-3, with the team going 14-6 in all of his starts. Verlander has done his best pitching on the road, where he is 6-1 with a 2.97 ERA and an excellent 1.12 WHIP. He is coming off of a Quality Start at Chicago vs. the White Sox, and he has three Quality Starts in four career outings vs. the A’s.

Finally, the Under is now a sparkling 34-14-5 in all Oakland home games this season, and there is no reason to believe this game will play out any differently given this pitching matchup.

Free Pick: Tigers, Athletics Under 7½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 07-31-07, 10:26 AM

Cubs get back in win column tonight

Game Time: 07/31/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

The Cubs were handcuffed last night by Philadelphia's Cole Hamels. That won't happen tonight with the Phillies throwing Adam Eaton. Chalk this one up to Chicago at home in Wrigley.

Off last night's 4-1 home loss to Philadelphia, look for Chicago to bounce back nicely with Jason Marquis on the mound.

If you take a close look at Marquis' stats this season, you'll notice that he's enjoyed tremendous success at Wrigley Field. In 11 starts in the Windy City, Jason owns a 5-2 record (Chicago is 9-2 overall) and has been touched for 28 earned runs, 57 hits and 21 walks in 67.2 innings of work. That breaks down to a respectable 3.72 ERA and a WHIP of 1.153.

On the visitor's side of the field, Philadelphia hurler Adam Eaton has struggled something fierce in his last three trips to the hill. Facing Washington, San Diego and St. Louis, Adam has been eaten alive allowing 12 earned runs and 25 hits in just 16 frames. That adds up to a lofty 6.75 ERA.

Even worse, Eaton has made seven starts dating back to June 23 and been clocked for 30 earned runs and 53 hits in only 40.1 innings of work. Those types of numbers won't get the job done versus a Chicago team that is peaking right now.

There are plenty of technical reasons to back the Cubbies, too. Here's one that really stands out: Chicago has cashed 20 of its last 26 at home facing a right-handed starter.

The Cubs have the Brewers in sight and they want to take over the top spot in the NL Central. Let's squeeze a little juice and take Chicago with Marquis.

Free Pick: Cubs -125