Thursday Longshots

[Razz]

For as strong as I felt Wednesday's card was, I feel the opposite about Thursday. All this is small.

Marlins +230 (BH Kim/Peavy)
Simplest play of the year. The Padres can't be this big a favorite in a baseball game with that offense, even with the best pitcher in baseball pitching. Peavy knows that every time out if he gives up even one run, he may get beat. His numbers against the Marlins basically exemplify that - 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA. Today, Young goes 7 shutout innings, but can't get the win because the offense can't score against a guy whose ERA was 11 and whose WHIP was over 3.
The Padres offense, terrible as it always is, is even worse against righties, and Kim has been very good against subpar offensive teams. Kim has allowed a total of only 10 hits and 2 ER in 18.1 IP his last three starts against the NL, and he's 2-0 with an ERA around 1.5 in his last three road starts against the NL. Tremendous price here.

Braves +123 (Hudson/Penny)
Tim Hudson is 5-1 with a 3.27 ERA/1.28 WHIP/.255 BAA career against the Dodgers, with the lone loss coming this year in a game in which he pitched well, and Brad Penny hasn't been so good against the Braves. Penny is 8-4 against Atlanta, but he has a 4.77 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in those games. The only three Braves who have faced him more than a handful of times have crushed him. His career July numbers are the worst of any month. The Braves score a full run more against righty starters than lefties, and the Dodgers score over a run less against righties.

Devil Rays +215 (Howell/Beckett)
Beckett's having a nice season, but it's not what people are making it out to be. I mean, he's 27th in ERA - behind Maine, Perez, Garland, Morris, Meche, Marquis, and 20 others. After a great start, he's been average, frankly. By month:

April 5-0, 2.48 ERA/1.04 WHIP/.218 BAA
May 3-0, 2.88/0.88/.182
June 3-2, 4.46/1.30/.277

Still decent, but obviously regressing. His career July numbers are not good, and his career numbers against the Devil Rays aren't either - 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA.
Winston Churchill couldn't convince you that JP Howell is capable of shutting down the Red Sox. But, the Red Sox are 3-8 their last 11 against lefty starters, and if Ryan Feierabend (ERA 12.15 against the rest of baseball) can pitch 5 shutout innings against Boston, it's at least a possibility that Howell can have some success against them. At this price, that's all I really need.

[Razz]

Oh, hell, one more.

Mariners +128 (Batista/Gaudin)
I'm not a fan of either pitcher. But Batista has been dominant at McAfee Coliseum. In 7 games there (4 starts), he's 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .178 BAA, with a complete game.
The other thing I like about this is that in recent weeks, pitchers who have beaten the Yankees have gotten blistered their next time out, and I think that his 1-hit 7-inning shutout against them is being overaccounted for here. He's not pitching as well as his numbers show by any means, his career numbers against Seattle are terrible (5.89/1.91/.286), and with Seattle having strong lineup and bullpen advantages, I like them in this spot at what I consider an inflated price.

[AC1318]

For as strong as I felt Wednesday's card was, I feel the opposite about Thursday. All this is small.

Marlins +230 (BH Kim/Peavy)
Simplest play of the year. The Padres can't be this big a favorite in a baseball game with that offense, even with the best pitcher in baseball pitching. Peavy knows that every time out if he gives up even one run, he may get beat. His numbers against the Marlins basically exemplify that - 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA. Today, Young goes 7 shutout innings, but can't get the win because the offense can't score against a guy whose ERA was 11 and whose WHIP was over 3.
The Padres offense, terrible as it always is, is even worse against righties, and Kim has been very good against subpar offensive teams. Kim has allowed a total of only 10 hits and 2 ER in 18.1 IP his last three starts against the NL, and he's 2-0 with an ERA around 1.5 in his last three road starts against the NL. Tremendous price here.

Braves +123 (Hudson/Penny)
Tim Hudson is 5-1 with a 3.27 ERA/1.28 WHIP/.255 BAA career against the Dodgers, with the lone loss coming this year in a game in which he pitched well, and Brad Penny hasn't been so good against the Braves. Penny is 8-4 against Atlanta, but he has a 4.77 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in those games. The only three Braves who have faced him more than a handful of times have crushed him. His career July numbers are the worst of any month. The Braves score a full run more against righty starters than lefties, and the Dodgers score over a run less against righties.

Devil Rays +215 (Howell/Beckett)
Beckett's having a nice season, but it's not what people are making it out to be. I mean, he's 27th in ERA - behind Maine, Perez, Garland, Morris, Meche, Marquis, and 20 others. After a great start, he's been average, frankly. By month:

April 5-0, 2.48 ERA/1.04 WHIP/.218 BAA
May 3-0, 2.88/0.88/.182
June 3-2, 4.46/1.30/.277

Still decent, but obviously regressing. His career July numbers are not good, and his career numbers against the Devil Rays aren't either - 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA.
Winston Churchill couldn't convince you that JP Howell is capable of shutting down the Red Sox. But, the Red Sox are 3-8 their last 11 against lefty starters, and if Ryan Feierabend (ERA 12.15 against the rest of baseball) can pitch 5 shutout innings against Boston, it's at least a possibility that Howell can have some success against them. At this price, that's all I really need.

hudson is 7-1 3-0 at LAD
penny is 12-6 but 7-1 at home
I wouldn't call the braves a long shot

good luck today I hope you cash

[bigboydan]

I like the under today in that Fish/Padres game Razz. Kim pitched a very solid outing last time out against a extremely hot hitting Braves team at the time.

[EBone]

My two cents: I think one of the Florida teams will cash today (D-Rays or Fish) but I don't have the balls to bet them. It seems to me that the bullpen is starting to show signs of wear and tear with the Pads. With the aforementioned pressure that Peavy bears, the Fish seem to be the most logical.

I would definitely take the A's instead of the Mariners but, again, I'm not playing it. Seattle better score in bunches in this game to win. I can't go against Penny right now although the July numbers for Penny are intriguing.

Good luck, Razz.

E

[LT Profits]

I am on Braves and Mariners myself. Can't knock Marlins play although I passed. I can't bet D-Rays though, they are hitting a pathetic .187 vs. RHP the last 10 games, which may be just what Beckett needs to turn things back around.

[EBone]

Marlins +230 (BH Kim/Peavy)
Simplest play of the year. The Padres can't be this big a favorite in a baseball game with that offense, even with the best pitcher in baseball pitching. Peavy knows that every time out if he gives up even one run, he may get beat. His numbers against the Marlins basically exemplify that - 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA. Today, Young goes 7 shutout innings, but can't get the win because the offense can't score against a guy whose ERA was 11 and whose WHIP was over 3.
The Padres offense, terrible as it always is, is even worse against righties, and Kim has been very good against subpar offensive teams. Kim has allowed a total of only 10 hits and 2 ER in 18.1 IP his last three starts against the NL, and he's 2-0 with an ERA around 1.5 in his last three road starts against the NL. Tremendous price here.

Very nice call.


E

[Razz]

Thanks E. Tough beat with the Devil Rays though. Howell was lights out.

[moses millsap]

Hudson's pitching like he's the one with the blister.

Yeah, at least, we were on the right side with TB.