Hedging question......Oakland Game?

ShamsWoof10 · 07-03-07, 08:22 PM

I am not really given an answer here but just a perspective... Think about the total and if you think it's under then I would take the runline because with a low scoring game there is a bigger chance the runline will matter...

paul Mordeeb · 07-03-07, 08:40 PM

Thanks, Game Feels like an Under.

RJS · 07-03-07, 08:51 PM

200 Toronto +150 would make it either +600 or +800? I kind of like that guarantee

Possibly sacrificing 200 to guarantee 300 more?

Just my thought....Good luck no matter what you do.

RJS · 07-03-07, 08:54 PM

Math was off it would actually be $500 or $800 still not bad

ShamsWoof10 · 07-03-07, 09:01 PM

I would agree the -155 is probably to high and to hedge you want to risk less... I also agree with the +ML...

paul Mordeeb · 07-03-07, 09:01 PM

Yea, Threw $200 on toronto +151. I just never had overs come in that fast in a round robin before and thought Oakland losing would get me way to upset. It's not like any of the other games were close. Go oakland!!!!

RJS · 07-03-07, 09:05 PM

Nice job paul, now you can relax and enjoy the game. I always take some free money if I can.

ShamsWoof10 · 07-03-07, 09:17 PM

agreed stress or lack of it should be priced in....

GOOD LUCK!!!

LT Profits · 07-04-07, 01:56 AM

I just saw this thread, so I apoloigize for answering after the fact.

You said in your first post that you would still WIN 200 if Oakland LOST. For that reason alone, I would NOT have hedged because you were already guaranteed a profit. That being the case, why not give yourself the chance to win the whole $1,000, knowing that you had 200 in the bank regardless? I mean there was obviously a reason why you liked the play in the first place, so with a profit already guatanteed, why give away $200 on a play that you did not really like?

Now looking at it after the fact, you won 200 less than you should have while winning a play you handicapped correctly. Sure you would have picked up an extra 300 if you real play lost, but I don't think having 200 locked in if your play loses is a bad thing. Sometimes you have to trust your handicapping ability, and the only time a hedge helps you is if the play you handicapped to win loses.

In case you haven't figured it out, I am not a big hedge guy unless we are talking about a high odds future bet. And I would certainly never hedge if I am alreasy assured a profit.

Just my two cents.

ShamsWoof10 · 07-04-07, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I just saw this thread, so I apoloigize for answering after the fact.

You said in your first post that you would still WIN 200 if Oakland LOST. For that reason alone, I would NOT have hedged because you were already guaranteed a profit. That being the case, why not give yourself the chance to win the whole $1,000, knowing that you had 200 in the bank regardless? I mean there was obviously a reason why you liked the play in the first place, so with a profit already guatanteed, why give away $200 on a play that you did not really like?

Now looking at it after the fact, you won 200 less than you should have while winning a play you handicapped correctly. Sure you would have picked up an extra 300 if you real play lost, but I don't think having 200 locked in if your play loses is a bad thing. Sometimes you have to trust your handicapping ability, and the only time a hedge helps you is if the play you handicapped to win loses.

In case you haven't figured it out, I am not a big hedge guy unless we are talking about a high odds future bet. And I would certainly never hedge if I am alreasy assured a profit.

Just my two cents.

You made a very good point by pointing out that he had profit regardless... I agree but I guess this should go under superstition and I guess I do have done... I believe it's like Karma or "THE GAMBLING GODS"... If you do the right thing by hedging usually the gambling gods reward you and if you don't hedge (at least for me) it loses and I feel that it happened to teach me a lesson.... Stupid admittedly but a superstition as admitted..... That one run almost mattered and it's a good thing it didn't but you were right it did go under....