I can't see how this line can be -220 right now. Baltimore is playing very solid baseball lately, and I know they haven't really played anyone that was really good right now as well as being on this west coast swing right now. However I can't see Escobar being such a big favorite here, especially the way that O's starting staff has been winning the way they have lately.
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I think you're right BBD, but I actually don't think there's a huge amount of value. The Angels do well at home for a reason: they have a solid lineup and a solid pen, which is a great benefit playing at home in a pitcher's park. So you will see a lot of games where they push a few runs across, and the opposing team doesn't get anything going, playing on the road in a pitcher's park against a team with a solid staff.
At -220, they would have to win 69% of the time to break even. But they have won 72% of the time at home this year vs all comers. Baltimore is a sub-.500 team on the road, and the Angels have a good starter going.
Still, having said that, I think Burres is being underrated here, and Baltimore is the right side. But I don't think there's as much value as it might at first seem looking at it that way.Comment