Wednesday's Front Page Plays (May 30)

[Willie Bee]

Phillies & Moyer -125 over Big Unit

Game Time: 05/30/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com


Tonight’s matchup between the Phillies and Diamondbacks is an AARP special, but look for the 44-year old soft tosser Jamie Moyer to prevail over 43-year old fireballer Randy Johnson.

This is a rare matchup of two left-handed starters who are both well over 40 years old.

The Philadelphia Phillies’ Jamie Moyer is 44, while the Arizona Diamondbacks' Randy Johnson is 43, making the combined age of this matchup a remarkable 87 years young. While Johnson has been the more dominating pitcher throughout his career, and is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the Hall of Fame, Moyer's fate is less certain. It has been the elder Phillie, however, who has been much more durable throughout his career, due in no small part to the fact that Moyer has never been a hard thrower or strikeout pitcher.

Speaking of durability, Moyer's mound opponent Randy Johnson has had quite a few issues already this season. He spent the first three weeks of the season on the Disabled List and now is making his first start since May 20, when he was sidelined with forearm tendonitis. Johnson has not fared well recently against Philadelphia, with his team having lost his last 3 starts against them including once this season and once last season, when he was a member of the Yankees.

The Phillies are 10-3 in Moyer's last 13 starts and 19-7 in their last 26 games as the favorite, so take Philadelphia.

Free Pick: Phillies -125

[Willie Bee]

Go With Orioles -130 vs. Royals

Game Time: 05/30/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com


These are two hurlers going in opposite directions, as Bedard continues to pitch at a high level for Baltimore while Meche has been lit up lately for Kansas City, so play the Orioles.

The Baltimore Orioles send rising star Eric Bedard to the hill in Kansas City knowing he is in solid current form, while Kansas City Royals right hander Gil Meche is in struggling form.

Although Bedard is 0-1 in his last three starts, he is not to blame as he has an excellent 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 21 innings in those starts. Meche is coming off of some rocky outings, with a 6.61 ERA and a terrible 1.90 WHIP in his last three efforts.

Look for the Royals to dip to 2-7 in Game 3 of a home series this season here tonight.

Free Pick: Orioles -130

[Willie Bee]

Yankees, Blue Jays to Stay Under 11

Game Time: 05/30/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com


The home/away splits for the starting pitchers in tonight’s Yankees/Blue Jays matchup suggest that this total is grossly inflated, so play the Under in this unexpected pitchers’ duel.

After another low-scoring game yesterday, the Under is now 4-0 in the last four New York Yankee games and a profitable 14-4-2 the last 20.

The Bronx Bombers also seen the Under go a solid 13-6-1 in their last 20 meetings with the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, yesterday's result also brought the Under to a perfect 9-0 in the last nine Toronto home games and 16-3 the last 19 games here in Rogers Centre. Litsch, who has seen the UNDER go 3-0 in his three starts, was outstanding in his lone game here in Toronto, allowing just four hits and one run through 8.2 innings of a 2-1 final score.

Clippard was also very strong in his lone road start, holding the powerful Mets to three hits and one run through six complete innings. so the Under is the play here.

Free Pick: Yankees, Blue Jays Under 11 (-120)

[Willie Bee]

Devil Rays -110 to sting Tigers

Game Time: 05/30/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | procappers.com


The Tigers are likely already looking forward to a big weekend series with the Indians in Cleveland. Take the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at home tonight against Detroit.

Detroit snapped a four-game skid with a big win at Tampa Bay on Tuesday, but this is a good spot for the Devil Rays to take the third game and the series against the Tigers. Tampa Bay is two games below .500 at home on the season, going 10-9 over its last 19 at Tropicana Field while also winning five of its last seven against teams with a winning record. Take away home starts by Edwin Jackson and Casey Fossum, and the Devil Rays are 7-2 in their last nine at home.

Nate Robertson is in a funk right now and his confidence has been shaken. After tossing five straight quality outings, he has allowed 16 runs in his last four starts, posting a 7.08 ERA over that span. He has given up an alarming 37 hits over that span which has contributed to a 2.16 WHIP. He has said that he cannot figure out why he isn’t fooling more hitters and when a pitcher admits that, something is wrong for sure. The Tigers are 8-21 in Robertson's last 29 road starts.

James Shields has been the best starter in the rotation for the Devil Rays and coming off a poor showing should be a positive here. Shields has yet to lose and has posted a solid 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the season. Tampa Bay is 5-5 in his 10 starts but that improves to 5-3 in night games when his offense has averaged 4.6 runs per game. He has strung together four consecutive quality starts at home and this will be the Tigers' first ever look at Shields, which is a big plus for him.

This moneyline is all over the place but a situation falls into the hands of the Devil Rays based on an available number. Play against favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that are averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game on the year going up against an opponent whose starting pitcher has a WHIP of 1.10 or less over his last 10 games. This situation is 38-16 against the moneyline (70.4 percent) over the last five seasons. The Devil Rays grab the rubber game on Wednesday. Play Tampa Bay for one unit.

Free Pick: Devil Rays -110

[Willie Bee]

Yankees -129 to avoid Blue Jay sweep

Game Time: 05/30/2007 07:07 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com


The Yankees are in a tailspin currently. But look for New York to pull out of their dive at least temporarily when they close out their series tonight in Toronto against the Blue Jays.

Jesse Litsch, the Blue Jays' righty starting pitcher here tonight against the struggling Yankees, has looked a little ragged in his last two starts going 0-1 along with a bloated 7.56 ERA. He has allowed 15 hits, including three homers, in just 8.4 innings of work.

This young hurler is exactly what the Yankees need to break out of their current slump. Note that the Yankees have had measured success against right-handers like Litsch this season, hitting them for .276 batting average and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game. It's rare you can get any value by backing the over-hyped Yankees, but this is one of those occasions.

Notch one up for the visiting Zoo Crew here this evening as they avoid being swept in back-to-back series.

Free Pick: Yankees -129

[Willie Bee]

Go with Giants +134 at Mets

Game Time: 05/30/2007 07:10 PM -
By: John Ryan | 10starpicks.com


After dropping last night's decision in extra innings, look for San Francisco to bounce back in the win column tonight when the Giants and Mets resume their series in New York.

The Giants get immediate revenge after Armando Benitez balked his way to a loss last night. Prior to last night this Giants bullpen had been awesome, and still is today, sporting a 2.94 ERA and 1.239 WHIP. The Mets' offense has great season numbers, but they have been slumping of late.

San Fran newcomer Barry Zito was shelled earlier this season, but he got back to his top-rated form in his last start against Houston. In that start he went seven very strong innings and yielded just one earned run on four hits. He is back and will pitch well today, too.

New York's Tom Glavine has defied the age odds again this year, but he is beginning to show signs of fatigue. Over his last three starts he has a solid 4.50 ERA, but I do not feel he is pitching at the same level as Zito. Glavine is 8-8 when starting against San Francisco with an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.376. San Francisco is 27-16 (+13.5 Units) against the moneyline vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last two seasons. San Francisco is 26-17 (+19.1 Units) against the moneyline as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last two seasons.

Free Pick: Giants +134

[Willie Bee]

Win with Orioles, Royals Over 8½

Game Time: 05/30/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com


Tonight's game between the Orioles and Royals in Kansas City is destined to go over the total. Bet Baltimore and KC to light up the scoreboard in the conclusion of their series.

The Orioles send left-hander Eric Bedard to the mound tonight. In four career starts vs. the Royals the over is 3-1.

The Royals counter with right-hander Gil Meche, and over his last three starts his ERA is 6.61. Kansas City has played over the total in two of Gil Meche's last three starts. After last night's game, the Over is 24-7 in the last 31 meetings between the teams in KC. The Over is also 10-5 in the last 15 meetings. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Orioles-Royals Over 8½