Wednesday's Front Page Plays (May 23)

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Wednesday's Front Page Plays (May 23)
    Dog the A's at the White Sox

    Game Time: 05/23/2007 08:10 PM -
    By: Matt Fargo | procappers.com


    This is a great spot to play a road dog tonight when the Chad Gaudin and the Oakland Athletics conclude their series in Chicago against Jon Garland and the White Sox.

    The White Sox bats are finally coming to life but this is where the run likely ends. Chicago has put up 8.5 rpg over its last four games after not scoring more than six runs in its previous 17 games. The task will be more difficult tonight.

    Oakland has dropped the first two games in this series as it has simply been outhit, but the A’s can bounce back as they are now 37-17 in the last 54 meetings with the White Sox despite Chicago winning four of five this season. Jon Garland has strung together five straight quality starts and that is a big reason for going against him tonight. He is obviously in good form but he is not the type of pitcher than can keep it up. He has tossed five consecutive quality outings one other time since 2004 and he was ripped for six runs in 5.2 innings in his next start. Despite the solid season, the White Sox are 3-5 in his eight starts and despite those three coming in his last three outings, they are averaging only 3.3 rpg of support.

    Chad Gaudin looks to continue his very solid debut season as a starter for the A’s. He is coming off a quality starts against San Francisco, his fourth of the season. That total could be at eight if he went a total of 4.1 innings more as he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine outings and has held the opposition to two runs or less in seven of his nine assignments. Gaudin hasn't allowed a home run since giving up two in his first start of the season. The A’s are 6-3 in his nine starts.

    The recent success of Garland puts him and the White Sox in a tough situation that favors the A’s. Play on American League road underdogs that are allowing 4.2 or less rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher that has posted an ERA of 2.50 or less over his last five starts. This situation is 31-12 (72.1 percent) since 1997 with the average run differential being +1.6 rpg. Oakland avoids the sweep as it takes game three on Wednesday. Play Oakland for one unit.

    Free Pick: Athletics +118
  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #2
    Phillies & Marlins Over 9

    Game Time: 05/23/2007 07:05 PM -
    By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

    Freddy Garcia takes the mound for Philadelphia tonight in Florida against newly acquired Byung-Hyun Kim. Play the Phils and Phish to go over the total.

    Our Wednesday MLB selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and the Florida Marlins going over the total.

    A couple of weeks ago, a trade occurred in which the Marlins and Rockies swapped a couple of washed-up, inneffective, and disappointing right-handers, Jorge Julio and Byung-Hyun Kim. The Marlins may have gotten slightly the better of the deal as Kim will be in their rotation and can only cause damage to his new team once every five games (perhaps fewer if his start is skipped periodically) whereas the wildly unpredictable Julio can be destructive over several consecutive nights...just ask Florida.

    Phillies right-hander Freddy Garcia is a bit washed-up as well perhaps, although nothing compared with Kim. Garcia really has not put up very impressive numbers, but he can be effective on occasion. For some reason, however, Garcia seems to turn from somewhat of a power pitcher at home to a control pitcher on the road. His strikeouts and walks have both decreased dramatically in his three starts away from Philadelphia. Unfortunately for Garcia and the Phillies, he really hasn't been very good at home or on the road.

    The Over is 50-23-1 in the last 74 games between these two overall, and 43-16-2 in the last 61 meetings in Florida. Take the Over.

    Free Pick: Phillies-Marlins Over 9
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Play Pirates -102 at Cardinals

      Game Time: 05/23/2007 08:10 PM -
      By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com


      Pittsburgh looks to even their series in St. Louis tonight, and the Pirates have the pitching advantage to do that behind Ian Snell who toes the rubber against the Cardinals' Kip Wells.

      Tonight's two starting pitchers have had vastly different seasons up to this point.

      St Louis' Kip Wells has been absolutely abysmal. Indeed, Wells has lost his past seven starts, allowing 37 earned runs in 39 innings for an 8.54 ERA during that stretch. He leads the National League in both losses (8) and earned runs allowed (39).

      Ian Snell, on the other hand, has been terrific for Pittsburgh. While he did allow four runs his last time out, a closer look shows that Snell had a shutout through the first five innings and only ran into problems in the sixth. Despite that "sub-par" start, Snell remains an excellent 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA. He still hasn't allowed more than four runs in any of his nine starts and he's only allowed more than two earned runs twice.

      Snell has also already tossed a pair of gems against the Cards this season, allowing just two earned runs in 14 combined innings, most recently winning 3-2 here on April 16th. Consider a play on the visitors, listing Snell and Wells as the starting pitchers.

      Free Pick: Pirates -102
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Play Padres to pop Cubs

        Game Time: 05/23/2007 10:05 PM -
        By: Alex Smart | sportspic.com


        Look for the Cubs' recent woes against the Padres to continue tonight. Side with San Diego as the home team goes for their ninth straight win over Chicago.

        The Cubs enter this game having lost eight straight against the Padres dating back to last season, and have now lost five straight at Petco Park, being outscored 22-8 during their losing run in Southern California.

        That's not a good omen for the Cubs chances here this evening considering the Padres are playing some very good baseball of late winning six of their last eight overall and primed to overtake the LA Dodgers for first in the NL West Division. David Wells, the Padres' veteran southpaw starter today, pitched well last time out going eight innings and allowing just one earned run. That was a week ago, so he will be well rested and ready for a repeat performance here tonight.

        Final Notes & Trends: Cubs are batting .239 and producing a lowly 3.4 RPG against lefty starters like Wells this season. Play on the Padres.

        Free Pick: Padres -128
        Comment
        • Willie Bee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-14-06
          • 15726

          #5
          Zito, Giants to sweep Astros

          Game Time: 05/23/2007 10:15 PM -
          By: Vernon Croy | procappers.com


          With Houston's offense struggling overall, and especially against southpaws, back the Giants tonight at home in San Francisco as they sweep the Astros.

          Houston has struggled against lefties this season hitting just .248 as a team while averaging just 3.6 RPG. And Houston's bats overall have struggled over their past seven games hitting just .206 as a team and averaging just 2.9 RPG.

          Barry Zito, San Francisco's new ace, has struggled lately but I look for him to bounce back with a quality start tonight at home against a slumping Astros ball club. This pick also falls into one of my MLB systems.

          Free Pick: Giants -150
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Athletics, White Sox Under 9

            Game Time: 05/23/2007 08:10 PM -
            By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com


            Tonight's series finale on Chicago's South Side is a solid play on the Under. Look for a low-scoring affair when the Athletics and White Sox meet on the diamond.

            The Under is 26-13-3 in Oakland's last 42 games. The A's have played the Under in six of Chad Gaudin's nine starts this season.

            The Under is 6-3 in Chicago's last nine games vs. American League West opponents. The Under is a profitable 10-5-3 in Chicago's last 18 home games. The White Sox have played under the total in three of Jon Garland's last four starts. The Under is 6-1 in Garland's last seven starts vs. the A's.

            Free Pick: Athletics-White Sox Under 9
            Comment
            • bigboydan
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 08-10-05
              • 55420

              #7
              Originally posted by Willie Bee
              Dog the A's at the White Sox

              Game Time: 05/23/2007 08:10 PM -
              By: Matt Fargo | procappers.com


              This is a great spot to play a road dog tonight when the Chad Gaudin and the Oakland Athletics conclude their series in Chicago against Jon Garland and the White Sox.

              The White Sox bats are finally coming to life but this is where the run likely ends. Chicago has put up 8.5 rpg over its last four games after not scoring more than six runs in its previous 17 games. The task will be more difficult tonight.

              Oakland has dropped the first two games in this series as it has simply been outhit, but the A’s can bounce back as they are now 37-17 in the last 54 meetings with the White Sox despite Chicago winning four of five this season. Jon Garland has strung together five straight quality starts and that is a big reason for going against him tonight. He is obviously in good form but he is not the type of pitcher than can keep it up. He has tossed five consecutive quality outings one other time since 2004 and he was ripped for six runs in 5.2 innings in his next start. Despite the solid season, the White Sox are 3-5 in his eight starts and despite those three coming in his last three outings, they are averaging only 3.3 rpg of support.

              Chad Gaudin looks to continue his very solid debut season as a starter for the A’s. He is coming off a quality starts against San Francisco, his fourth of the season. That total could be at eight if he went a total of 4.1 innings more as he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine outings and has held the opposition to two runs or less in seven of his nine assignments. Gaudin hasn't allowed a home run since giving up two in his first start of the season. The A’s are 6-3 in his nine starts.

              The recent success of Garland puts him and the White Sox in a tough situation that favors the A’s. Play on American League road underdogs that are allowing 4.2 or less rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher that has posted an ERA of 2.50 or less over his last five starts. This situation is 31-12 (72.1 percent) since 1997 with the average run differential being +1.6 rpg. Oakland avoids the sweep as it takes game three on Wednesday. Play Oakland for one unit.

              Free Pick: Athletics +118
              i agree with your play Mr.Fargo.
              Comment
              • crackerjack
                SBR MVP
                • 08-01-06
                • 3366

                #8
                My thoughts:
                Never bet against a hot team (White Sox). Wait until they cool off. Pass

                Phillies game could go over, but Phillies RL is a better bet

                Pirates are good value but who wants to take the Pirates on the road against the defending World Series champs? Pass

                Zito -- take him. This is a situational play for me. Zito looked terrible in his last start against his former team. I have seen good pitchers rebound time and time again when they were embarrassed. This is a great play, even at -150.

                As/WS under -- WS are knocking the crap out of the ball. Wait until they cool off before risking money that they won't score 9+ runs for the fifth straight game...
                Comment
                • cwsulzba
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 03-21-07
                  • 431

                  #9
                  Marlins over 9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Willie Bee
                    Zito, Giants to sweep Astros

                    Game Time: 05/23/2007 10:15 PM -
                    By: Vernon Croy | procappers.com


                    With Houston's offense struggling overall, and especially against southpaws, back the Giants tonight at home in San Francisco as they sweep the Astros.

                    Houston has struggled against lefties this season hitting just .248 as a team while averaging just 3.6 RPG. And Houston's bats overall have struggled over their past seven games hitting just .206 as a team and averaging just 2.9 RPG.

                    Barry Zito, San Francisco's new ace, has struggled lately but I look for him to bounce back with a quality start tonight at home against a slumping Astros ball club. This pick also falls into one of my MLB systems.

                    Free Pick: Giants -150

                    Stats are inaccurate according to what I have. HOU is .286 vs. LP. They're 6-7 vs. lefty starters which is misleading also because I believe 4 of those wins have come in their last 5 vs. lefty starters. The only thing Zito has going for him is starting at home. He's had two horrible starts in a row on the road. Stros have been shut down, but by two pitchers in Lincecum and Lowry who have shut them down previously. Zito has no history with HOU. I'll roll the dice with my home town boys from Houston tonight.
                    Comment
                    • crackerjack
                      SBR MVP
                      • 08-01-06
                      • 3366

                      #11
                      Good pitchers like Zito don't have three horrible starts in a row...
                      Comment
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