5/22 Bases

[Senator7]

Looking at the early lines:

NY Mets -122

Milwaukee -107

Houston -114

LA Angels -120

Toronto +100

Seattle +109

More chalk than I like, but a lot of value on some damn good pitchers.

Discussion?

[Razz]

No offense, but if you play all those, I hope you get smoked tomorrow. I've already bet the other side of five of them, and LAD were the first game off my card.

[rjt721]

I disagree with a couple of these Senator. I like the D'Rays quite a bit tomorrow. Kazmir is always solid pitching at the Trop, and Washburn isn't nearly as effective as his numbers to this point would indicate. I think Washburn gets hit hard tomorrow night. The Tampa pen is always a concern, but as a small fav. at home, I see a lot of value with the Rays.

I also like the Tigers at plus money playing at home, even with the Lackey/Maroth matchup. Maroth has actually been relatively consistent this season. Both teams are playing well, but I like the Tigers, who are always tough at Comerica.

I also think there is some value with the Cubs and Red Sox as good-sized dogs.

GL Senator.

[Senator7]

No offense, but if you play all those, I hope you get smoked tomorrow. I've already bet the other side of five of them, and LAD were the first game off my card.

Really? You're going against some of the best pitchers in the league?

I'm not planning on playing all of them. I just posted the lines where I saw some value. I don't like being on the opposite side as you, Razz, but I also don't like:

San Francisco vs. Oswalt
Atlanta vs. Sosa
LA Dodgers vs. Sheets
Detroit vs. Lackey

After further review, I'm probably going to lay off Toronto and Seattle.

For the first time this season, there aren't any dogs that have me excited tomorrow...

[Razz]

No offense, but if you play all those, I hope you get smoked tomorrow. I've already bet the other side of five of them, and LAD were the first game off my card.

Never mind, only against you on four, looked at it wrong, I'm not on Detroit.

[onlooker]

Lincecum vs Oswalt. Should be another good one. I would probably play the Giants in that one.

[Max Kim]

I like your Jays play. Cubs also has alot of value at +160, both teams with solid pitchers but in my opinion Chi has a hot offense right now.

[Razz]

Really? You're going against some of the best pitchers in the league?

I'm not planning on playing all of them. I just posted the lines where I saw some value. I don't like being on the opposite side as you, Razz, but I also don't like:

San Francisco vs. Oswalt
Atlanta vs. Sosa
LA Dodgers vs. Sheets
Detroit vs. Lackey

After further review, I'm probably going to lay off Toronto and Seattle.

For the first time this season, there aren't any dogs that have me excited tomorrow...

San Francisco vs. Oswalt - Probably the last time Lincecum will be a home dog to anyone other than Peavy. The Giants for whatver reason own Oswalt more than anyone in the league, including:

Aurilia - 5-12, 2 2B
Bonds - 4-7, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB
Durham - 7-17, 2 2B, 1 BB
Feliz - 10-22, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1 BB
Frandsen 2-3
Lewis 1-2
Winn 6-14, 1 2B, 1 3B

Atlanta vs. Sosa - Seems like you have a lot higher expectations of Sosa than I do. He's for all intents and purposes a fill-in that will be moved to the pen/minors when the Mets rotation is healthy. Braves have a top-5 lineup and should tee off on him. Not expecting a great start from Davies, but he has actually had success against the Mets in the past, and even if he struggles and this is a shootout, I like Atlanta's pen better and I like +115 with the home team.

[Razz]

Burnett at home: 4 starts, 3-0, 1 CG, 27.2 IP, 18 hits, 11 BB, 30 K, 2.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .194 BAA
Burnett on the road: 5 starts, 1-3, 28.2 IP, 27 hits, 18 BB, 25 K, 5.65 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, .250 BAA

Cabrera 3-1 at home, 0-3 on the road. ERA is about the same, but the WHIP and K/BB ratio are far better at home.

[Senator7]

Lincecum vs Oswalt. Should be another good one. I would probably play the Giants in that one.

I like and am impressed with Lincecum, but the only team that's beaten Oswalt this season is Milwaukee. I'm not going against one of the best pitchers in baseball for a measly +111. If it gets higher, I might consider it but I'm off it for now.

I just can't justify EVER playing Tampa Bay as a favorite. Thought about taking Seattle as the dog here, but I like Kazmir and decided just to watch this game.

I have been burned quite a few time so far this season betting against Detroit. They can score runs in bunches. Upon further review, Lackey's numbers so far this season are deceptive as he really hasn't beaten anyone of note besides Haren and Oakland. That being said, I can't take Detroit because I'm not impressed with Maroth and I think with his ERA and WHIP, he would be lucky to be 3-3 with any other team in the league.

After further review, I'm still considering:

NY Mets -122

-122 here would be the highest price I've paid all season. I don't think much of Davies and I think a lot of Sosa.

Milwaukee -107

Sheets baffled and shutdown the Dodgers early this season and the Brewers hit Wolf pretty hard earlier this year. The Crew has done fairly well against lefties so far this season.

Toronto +100

I don't think much of Cabrera and Burnett has been solid as of late.

That's my thinking on some of tomorrow's games. Apparently, Razz doesn't think much of my analysis!

[Senator7]

Burnett at home: 4 starts, 3-0, 1 CG, 27.2 IP, 18 hits, 11 BB, 30 K, 2.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .194 BAA
Burnett on the road: 5 starts, 1-3, 28.2 IP, 27 hits, 18 BB, 25 K, 5.65 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, .250 BAA

Cabrera 3-1 at home, 0-3 on the road. ERA is about the same, but the WHIP and K/BB ratio are far better at home.

I'm sorry, Razzer, but I don't buy into the home/away numbers on pitchers or even position players for that matter. I've got a lot of friends at various levels of professional baseball and all of them will tell you that playing at home is less of an advantage in baseball than any other sport.

You do have a good point, however, about laying -122 with Sosa against a solid Atlanta lineup.

[Razz]

I'm sorry, Razzer, but I don't buy into the home/away numbers on pitchers ...

Seriously? That's almost incomprehensible to me.

[Max Kim]

Senator, I agree on your Milwaukee play. Sheets also pitches well away and it looks like Mil's offense is heating up again

[Senator7]

Seriously? That's almost incomprehensible to me.

I used to...until I talked to a family friend who's a closer for a major league team. He said he obviously prefers pitching at home as opposed to on the road, but he said he's never felt like it affected his performance. That was when I started looking at pitching statistics as a whole and stopped being so focused on the splits.

It may be one player's opinion, but its an opinion I trust and respect...

[Senator7]

After further review, I'm now considering:

Washington +153

Pittsburgh +120

Colorado +130

Milwaukee -107

Boston +160

Toronto +100


I just can't bring myself to play so much chalk so I got off the games featuring two solid pitchers. The only two holdovers are Milwaukee and Toronto. Tomorrow's card has me torn and confused, but I'll figure it out.

Thoughts?

[Max Kim]

Pitt and Col seem a little risky to me. Boston and Wash has good value to me. Tor and Mil I'm with you on those.

[bigboydan]

I disagree with your Toronto play Senator. I can see Burnett getting lit up like a Christmas tree in this spot.

[Senator7]

Pitt and Col seem a little risky to me. Boston and Wash has good value to me. Tor and Mil I'm with you on those.

I felt like those were the weakest two plays of the six.

Right now, I'm probably going to go with:

Washington +153

Milwaukee -107

Boston +158

Toronto +100


I'll give another update when I actually make my plays...

[Senator7]

I disagree with your Toronto play Senator. I can see Burnett getting lit up like a Christmas tree in this spot.

Burnett, in two starts this season against Baltimore:

16 IPs

12 K's

1.69 ERA

.81 WHIP

I have to disagree with you, BBD. If Baltimore was going to light up Burnett, they would have shown at least a little ability to do so already this season.

[Checkerboard]

Senator7, glad to see you dropped mariners/washburn. I'm with rjt721 erlier in this thread on rays/kazmir. Good luck and thanks for getting these threads and discussions going early. AC's been doing a good job with this kind of early start discussion stuff. It's appreciated. Good luck with your picks.

[Senator7]

Officially went with:

Washington +153

Milwaukee -102

Boston +157

Toronto +103

Best of luck to all of you today.

[EBone]

I went with:

LA Angels (Lackey) -123 over Detroit
Oakland (C. Lewis) +127 over ChiSox


Didn't do too well with Oakland last night. I'll stick with them and see if they can post a W tonight. Rare favorite play for me tonight. I like Lackey. Always have. I think this is pretty good price.



E

[Senator7]

I went with:

LA Angels (Lackey) -123 over Detroit
Oakland (C. Lewis) +127 over ChiSox


Didn't do too well with Oakland last night. I'll stick with them and see if they can post a W tonight. Rare favorite play for me tonight. I like Lackey. Always have. I think this is pretty good price.



E

I like Lackey and the Halos tonight too, EBone. I just didn't want to pay that high a price against Detroit...

[crackerjack]

Why did you decide to lay off Toronto? I actually like Burnett in this one...

[Senator7]

Why did you decide to lay off Toronto? I actually like Burnett in this one...

I played Toronto @ +103.

I put that in my "official lineup" post.

[bigboydan]

I played Toronto @ +103.

I put that in my "official lineup" post.

Senator, I just happen to stumble across this one, and I thought it's something that might be of some interest to you:

“We've drawn some Baltimore money and some wise guys jumped on the opening number this morning,” says Randy Stafford, an oddsmaker at BetCRIS.com.

I took Baltimore myself in this game, but Who knows we could all be wrong. Anyways, I just thought I post this quote for you sir.

[Senator7]

Senator, I just happen to stumble across this one, and I thought it's something that might be of some interest to you:



I took Baltimore myself in this game, but Who knows we could all be wrong. Anyways, I just thought I post this quote for you sir.

Thanks for the heads up, BBD. We'll have to wait til the game is over to see who the wise guys really were. It wouldn't be the first time I've gone against the wise guys anyway. I don't think they're nearly as wise in baseball as they are during football. To be honest, a real wise guy wouldn't be playing bases at CRIS.

I still like Burnett and the Jays as an underdog tonight against a team he's basically shutdown twice already this season.

I guess we'll have to wait and see...

[Senator7]

Officially went with:

Washington +153

Milwaukee -102

Boston +157

Toronto +103

Best of luck to all of you today.

Washington, Toronto, and Boston all looking good.

Should have followed my instincts and taken the Angels and Mariners as well...

Let's go Brew Crew for a 4-0 night!

[Max Kim]

Senator, I had exactly all of your plays. We are looking real good, had a good feeling about the big dogs Wash and Boston. Hopefully Mil come through at LA.

[AC1318]

Washington, Toronto, and Boston all looking good.

Should have followed my instincts and taken the Angels and Mariners as well...

Let's go Brew Crew for a 4-0 night!

No matter the outcome for brewers still a profitable day, good going and thanks again.