Thursday's Front Page Picks (May 17)

[Willie Bee]

Make Mets -130 the Play vs. Cubs

Game Time: 05/17/2007 01:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com


The Mets may be one of the oldest clubs in the league, but youth is being served today with Jason Vargas taking this spot start, and he is in a perfect situation to succeed.

Is old age catching up with the Mets? Consider that 35 year-old pitcher Pedro Martinez, 37 year-old infielder Jose Valentin, 37 year-old pitcher Orlando Hernandez, and 40 year-old outfielder Moises Alou, all critical pieces to the Mets success, are currently either day-to-day with injuries or on the disabled list.

Then, when you add to that the fact that they also rely on 41 year-old ace Tom Glavine, another mid-30s outfielder in Shawn Green, and a 36 year-old slugger at first base in Carlos Delgado, you have to wonder if they will make it to the end of the season in one piece. So perhaps it is appropriate that New York is handing the ball to 24 year-old Jason Vargas, a once-highly touted prospect in the Marlins organization who now has to fill in with a spot start for the Mets.

More importantly, what a perfect situation this is for the young southpaw! The Cubs will be without their best hitter, first baseman Derek Lee, who is nursing a sore neck, and they are only batting .252 vs. left-handed pitchers this season. Add to this the fact that Chicago is giving young Angel Guzman only his third start of the season, and in his only other road effort, he got blasted while giving up nine hits and four earned runs May 12 in Philadelphia.

Last year, as a member of the Marlins, Vargas actually pitched six innings of shutout ball against the Cubs in one of his starts, so take the Mets behind the youngster.

Free Pick: Mets -130

[Willie Bee]

Rangers, D-Rays to Stay Under 9

Game Time: 05/17/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com


These teams soared Over last night, but with Kazmir never allowing more than two runs vs. Texas, and with Loe hurling seven shutout innings in his last start against Tampa, go Under.

Yesterday's matchup between the Rangers and Devil Rays was a slugfest which finished well above the total.

That result notwithstanding, both teams have been playing low-scoring games as of late. The Devil Rays have seen 11 of their last 15 games fall below the total while the Rangers have seen the Under go 10-4-3 their last 17 games. The Under is also a profitable 41-21-6 the past three seasons when the Rangers have played during the month of May.

Despite yesterday's result, the Under still remains a solid 8-3-1 the last 12 times that these teams faced each other in the state of Florida. Loe's statistics are certainly not impressive, but he did toss seven shutout innings the last time he faced the Rays. Meanwhile, Kazmir has seen the Under go 3-0 his last three starts and 13-5-1 his last 19 outings.

Kazmir has also never allowed more than two runs in any of his three career starts against Texas, so play the Under in Orlando tonight.

Free Pick: Rangers, Devil Rays 9

[Willie Bee]

Play Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Florida Marlins

Game Time: 05/17/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | procappers.com


With Tony Armas Jr pitching better at home in Pittsburgh, the Pirates are the play tonight against Ricky Nolasco and the Florida Marlins.

Florida has taken the last two games of this series following a Pittsburgh win in the opener, and the Pirates are in good shape to gain a series split on Thursday.

The Wednesday loss dropped the Pirates to 2-4 on this current homestand. Florida is 2-5 in its last seven road games and the Marlins are at a slight disadvantage based on the fact they have seen a lefty starter in each of their last three games and now Pittsburgh is turning to the other side.

Tony Armas has been mediocre at best this season but his best performances have been at home sans his last outing against the Braves. The good news about that last start is that Armas tossed only 41 pitches so he will come into this one with a very live arm. In his other two home games against Houston and Chicago, he posted a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings of work so there potential is there for another fine showing. Throughout his career, May has been his best month.

Florida counters with Ricky Nolasco who has been solid on the road in both of his away starts this season. However, he struggled away from home last year so the success this season could be very short-lived. His arm strength is not close to where it should be yet as he is still recovering from a stint on the disabled list. His velocity was down in his last start and while he is working on his mechanics, the Marlins are cautious about pushing too far. That means the bullpen, whose ERA is 5.71 on the road, will be called upon.

That bad bullpen is part of a very strong situation favoring the Pirates. Play against National League road teams with a moneyline of +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season. This situation is 58-13 against the moneyline (81.7 percent) since 1997 with the average run differential being +2.3 rpg. Pittsburgh earns the split on Thursday. Play Pittsburgh for one unit.

Free Pick: Pirates -101

[Willie Bee]

Back Oakland Athletics (-190) vs Kansas City Royals

Game Time: 05/17/2007 03:35 PM -
By: Larry Ness | touthouse.com


The odds are definitely against Kansas City winning their first road series of the year in Oakland this afternoon. Play the A's today versus the Royals.

The Royals look to win their first road series of the season when they wrap up their four-game set with the Oakland Athletics on Thursday at McAfee Coliseum.

On Wednesday, the Royals (14-27) scored two runs in the top of the ninth inning to defeat the Athletics 4-3. The Royals, who are just 7-13 away from home, have failed to win any of their first six road series of the season, but are trying to take three of four at Oakland.

Scott Elarton makes his second start of the season on Thursday for Kansas City. He gave up three runs and six hits in five innings of a 5-4, 10-inning loss to the Chicago White Sox on Saturday, his first start since July 16 after undergoing season-ending right shoulder surgery. Elarton\'s had some pretty 'ugly numbers' during this decade, but he''s not KC's biggest obstacle in this one.

While Kansas City faces Oakland rookie Dallas Braden and his 5.65 ERA (making just his fourth career start), the problem is Braden's a lefty and KC can't hit any lefty! Kansas City went 13-36 in 2006 vs left-handed starters and has opened this year with an 0-9 mark against them. Take Oakland.

Free Pick: Athletics -190

[Willie Bee]

Play New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs

Game Time: 05/17/2007 01:10 PM -
By: Dennis Macklin | procappers.com


A couple of makeshift arms take the hill today in New York when the Mets and Chicago Cubs close out their series. Back the home team in this one.

The Cubs' Angel Guzman is usually a long man but makes the occasional spot starts and is getting the call today.

His ERA is decent, 3.57 overall, but elevates to 4.63 as a starter and balloons to 6.75 on the road. The Northsiders are just 2-5 against lefties and fit the infamous 12-24 in their last 36 angle against southpaws.

The Mets have called up Jason Vargas who is 2-3 with 5.30 ERA in Triple-A New Orleans. He started against the Cubs in April 2006 throwing six innings of one-hit shutout ball. The Mets are a solid 5-2 as a home favorite at this price, and 17-11 against righties.

Vargas might not be much, but he will be confident here and with the Blue Bears hitting .237 and averaging less than three runs a game, the Mets get a confident nod.

Free Pick: Mets -130

[Willie Bee]

Phils & Garcia +115 vs. Sheets

Game Time: 05/17/2007 03:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com


This looks like a nice pitching matchup on paper, but Freddy Garcia has actually pitched better than his 1-2 mark while Ben Sheets has not be great on the road, so back the Phils as a home dog.

This is a nice pitching matchup, but we see some decent value with Freddy Garcia as a home underdog in this spot.

Garcia has allowed three runs or less in four of his six starts this season, and he allowed only four runs in each of the other two outings. He deserves a better fate than his 1-2 record, but he has been done in by the shaky Philadelphia bullpen on several occasions. We do expect him to work deep into this contest though, thus neutralizing the Brewers’ advantage in the pen.

Milwaukee counters with Ben Sheets, but he has not been as effective on the road as at home, posting a high 6.43 ERA and 1.50 WHIP away from Miller Park. Finally the Brewers simply cannot be trusted as a significant road favorite like this, as they are a woeful 13-23 the last 36 times they were a road favorite of -125 or more.

Free Pick: Phillies +115

[Willie Bee]

Play Pittsburgh Pirates and Florida Marlins Under 9

Game Time: 05/17/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Bill Young | procappers.com


Play the under tonight when Tony Armas Jr. and the Pittsburgh Pirates host Ricky Nolasco and the Florida Marlins.

The Under is 15-7-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 23 home games. Tony Armas is 23-9 Under in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Armas is 12-2 Under at home when the moneyline is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons.

The Under is 9-1-1 in Florida’s last 11 meetings with an NL Central team. The Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Pirates and Marlins and 16-5 in the Pirates’ last 21 home game with a Total Set of 9.0-10.5. Go with the Under Thursday.

Free Pick: Marlins-Pirates Under 9

[Willie Bee]

Cash Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins

Game Time: 05/17/2007 12:05 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com


Back the Indians at home in Cleveland today when the Tribe entertains the Minnesota Twins and their ace Johan Santana.

Minnesota's Johan Santana is a great pitcher but he is struggling this season. He can’t get the run support that he needs to win ball games.

Fausto Carmona has been great for the Indians this season. Carmona has a 4-1 record with a 3.12 ERA and is getting 6.3 runs per game of run support at home. Carmona is 6-0 in his last six games against poor power teams that average less than 0.9 home runs per game.

The Twins’ failure to hit the long ball has been a big downfall all season long. The Indians have had no problem putting runs on the board. Take the Indians today.

Play: Indians +124

[Willie Bee]

Take Minnesota Twins (-130) at Cleveland Indians

Game Time: 05/17/2007 12:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com


Though the Twins are struggling, look for ace Johan Santana to get Minnesota on the winning track today in Cleveland against the Indians.

The Twins are really stuggling right now, but just like CC Sabathia got the Indians a win last night, I expect Twins ace Johan Santana to right Minnesota's ship tonight.

Santana is 2-0 on the road with a 1.80 ERA. The Indians are 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland's starter in this tilt, has pitched very well but expect an off game today. The Twins are 10-4 in Santana's last 14 starts vs. the Indians.

Free Pick: Twins -130