5/16 Plays

**Senator7** · 05-16-07, 10:22 AM

As of now, still considering:

Milwaukee +134

Arizona -113

LA Angels -133

Pitching change took me off San Fran and even though Tampa Bay's pitcher is terrible, Padilla isn't much better for Texas right now. Wasn't going to touch The Crew tonight, but +134 with Suppan pitching? I can't figure that one out...

**moses millsap** · 05-16-07, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Senator7

Wasn't going to touch The Crew tonight, but +134 with Suppan pitching? I can't figure that one out...

Look at his splits.

Awful against Philly.

Even worse in his 9 innings pitched at CB.

**Senator7** · 05-16-07, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by OWNED

Look at his splits.

Awful against Philly.

Even worse in his 9 innings pitched at CB.

Where do you get that historical info, OWNED?

I think I'll lay off The Crew tonight then.

Guess I'm going with my chalk plays, but the only one of those two that I really like is LA Angels.

**Senator7** · 05-16-07, 10:41 AM

The deed is done:

Arizona -115

LA Angels -130

**fifawcs** · 05-16-07, 10:42 AM

I would stay away from LA Angels. Lackey is not historically very good against the Mariners. I do like Arizona a lot though. Cook sucks against Arizona and Webb is a beast.

**Senator7** · 05-16-07, 10:50 AM

Just curious why you guys put so much stock in historical matchups. You're looking at records pitching against basically a different lineup and its certainly a different situation.

I played college baseball all 4 years in school and I never thought that I was really good against some teams and really bad against others based on past performance over those 4 seasons.

I just think you have to look at the here and now. How does Suppan in his current form matchup against the current Philly offense in their current form and how does Hamels in his current form matchup against the Milwaukee offense in their current form?

I'd like to hear a discussion about this because I'm sure there's a lot of guys on here I respect who do put a lot of stock in historical results. I'm just wondering if I'm missing something...

**The HG** · 05-16-07, 11:11 AM

Well as with any data, you have to take it in context. Sometimes it means more than others. In baseball, a pitcher's historical records can sometimes be meaningful, because certain parks help or hinder various pitchers abnormally. In Horacio Ramirez' last game for instance, he was talking about how much he is helped by pitching at Safeco.

Also, teams often field the same kinds of teams over the years, focusing on speed, lefties or righties, etc etc. So how a pitcher has done in an opposing park over the years is something I do look at and factor in in various ways, both statistically and otherwise.

**BuddyBear** · 05-16-07, 11:12 AM

agreed here. I think it is worth taking into account past matchups and such but if your basis for a pick is based on what happened in 2002...well that is a problem. To me, you have to analyze each individual matchup on its own merit. When i look at a DET tigers matchup and look at historical stats well of course they are going to be unfavorable...that's because they sucked for the longest time. Teams change, players evolve....a lot happens between matchups. Think about Peyton Manning vs. NE. For the longest time everyone would say he just can't beat them....but does anyone now say Tom Brady can't beat INDY? Again...individual matchups are now more important.

So in short, consider it to some degree especially if there are enough observations (i.e. 30 starts against a team) but I would not put too much faith in such stats.

**Senator7** · 05-16-07, 11:18 AM

Glad to see that two of the people I respect the most responded. I understand the ballpark factor and I include it in my handicapping.

I guess I see where you're coming from. Where do you guys get your historical info from? I'd like to see OWNED chime in on this discussion as I have a lot of respect for him as well.

By the way, I went with The Crew tonight @ +136. Just couldn't turn down that value with Suppan and I don't see them getting swept...

**maritime** · 05-16-07, 12:01 PM

There are several websites. I simply use Yahoo sports. Click on pitchers name, from there you can click on split stats, situational stats, and even batter vs pitcher. It goes back the last 6 years, not that you would always need that though.

I don't use historical info as the end-all be-all, but it helps in certain situations.

**The HG** · 05-16-07, 12:11 PM

Any place that has career stats for players - yahoo, espn.com, et al, will have "splits" for pitchers. They'll give you at the least, stats in every park, vs righties and lefties, month by month, all of that. The stats usually go back to 1987, and they'll usually give each of the past 5 years individually.

Some of the insane baseball stat places can have incredibly involved and ridiculously detailed splits, everything you can imagine, inning by inning, BAA vs lefties on 3-2 counts in the fifth inning, whatever, it can be a real nerded out scene.

But the basic stuff that can be enlightening when taken in context and in combination with a broad range of factors can easily be found for free any place that has player stats.

**bigboydan** · 05-16-07, 12:11 PM

I do like D'backs myself today Senator.

BOL to you sir

**Senator7** · 05-16-07, 01:03 PM

Thanks BBD. You too!

**BuddyBear** · 05-16-07, 02:18 PM

I like Arizona too....sometimes it is simple and people overthink things. Webb is very good...despite winning the Cy Young he is still somewhat under the radar.