BuddyBear's 5/15 MLB Plays....

**fifawcs** · 05-15-07, 12:41 PM

Why do you like philadelphia? If yesterday's game meant anything, you should know that milwaukee is the superior team.

**bigboydan** · 05-15-07, 12:49 PM

I gotta go with the Brewers tonight double B. However, I do like your two other plays tonight.

BOL as always sir

**BuddyBear** · 05-15-07, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by fifawcs

Why do you like philadelphia? If yesterday's game meant anything, you should know that milwaukee is the superior team.

Good question. To begin from the technical side, PHIL falls into a very solid home dog system tonight that plays on home struggling pitchers (Eaton) against solid road starters (Vargas). Second, Vargas has overperformed quite a bit this year while Eaton has underperformed. Basically, Eaton has never been this bad nor has Vargas ever been this good. Sooner or later reality will be restored. In his last 3 starts while winning all of them, Vargas has walked 10 batters. He's been an escape artist or short....those walks will catch up to him. Third, MIL has never done real well against Philadelphia or at Philadelphia outside of last season. The past 10 years has yielded a negative EV for MIL against the PHILs. Finally, just some intuitive leans I have are that I am curious how MIL will respond now dealing with some major adversity right now (1-3 on what many people felt was their biggest road trip in decades). Another very interesting thing is that the public is leaning heavily on MIL tonight expecting them to rebound. It seems that everyone likes MIL tonight.....The fact that PHIL is only a small home dog tonight seems to tell the tale as to who the linesmaker believes is going to win this game.

Right or wrong, I have to take a shot with PHIL tonight because I feel they present quite a bit of value in this given situation

**Senator7** · 05-15-07, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Looked over the card quite a bit last night and this morning. I've started to notice that lines are starting to get sharper as linesmakers are starting to get a good size sample of teams playing both home and away as well as many starting pitchers now have made 7 to 8 starts and we've seen the bullpens (unfortunately for many of us we've seen more than we'd like of this group). I feel like I have a better grasp of the National League since 80% of games I watch are from that league so I tend to focus a bit more on those games.

It's been a good 4 day stretch which means any day now it's bound to come thumping down. I am little bit concerned right now that I am not getting the best possible lines on teams but that is something i am working on. Okay here are my plays for today.

904 Philadelphia +103
906 Pittsburgh -117
910 Houston -116

As always, good luck fellows.

I would wish you luck, my friend, but you've faded all three of my plays today. I hope that wasn't by design!

**BuddyBear** · 05-15-07, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Senator7

I would wish you luck, my friend, but you've faded all three of my plays today. I hope that wasn't by design!

Sorry about that...it wasn't the goal. Just see some value with these teams today. Like I said, it's been a good few days so any day now I am bound to fall flat on my face. Could easily be today. I am backing 3 teams with losing records, albeit they are all home teams, but still. Good luck Senator.

**Senator7** · 05-15-07, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Sorry about that...it wasn't the goal. Just see some value with these teams today. Like I said, it's been a good few days so any day now I am bound to fall flat on my face. Could easily be today. I am backing 3 teams with losing records, albeit they are all home teams, but still. Good luck Senator.

You too, BB!

**pat venditto** · 05-15-07, 03:54 PM

I took the marlins tonight! :P