Monday's Front Page Picks (May 14)

**Willie Bee** · 05-14-07, 08:39 AM

Follow Florida tonight at Pittsburgh

Game Time: 05/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

They're coming off an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Nationals and Dontrelle Willis has a high ERA. But the D-Train is still a winner, and Florida is the pick tonight at Pittsburgh.

Our Monday MLB selection is on the Florida Marlins over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have developed two of the best young starters in the National League in right-hander Ian Snell and left-hander Tom Gorzelanny, tonight's starter. But these two arms have not been enough to overcome the other shortcomings on this team which finds itself with a record of 16-20 and headed for another losing season.

The Pirates have to be especially concerned about their record at home, which is a dismal 6-10. But then again, even with a wonderful almost-new ballpark on the Allegheny River, people in this town really don't care that much about any sport that doesn't have the name Steelers in it. The Pirates are 26th in the league in home attendance averaging less than 20,000 fans per game, which is pretty bad given the aforementioned young pitching talent along with All Star outfielder Jason Bay and last season's batting champion, 2B Freddy Sanchez.

The Pirates got excited about something on Sunday however as they exploded for their largest (by far) offensive outburst this season, scoring 13 runs in a rout of the Braves. Expect a major regression tonight after that one.

The Marlins, meanwhile, are coming off the wrong end of an unthinkable 3-game sweep at the hands of none other than the Washington Nationals. Imagine how badly they want to come to PNC Park and win this one after being the first (and what could end up being the only) team to be swept by the worst squad in baseball in 2007. Despite lefty starter Dontrelle Willis' poor ERA of over five runs, the Marlins have won six of his eight starts this year and the Marlins hit lefties very well (.278 team BA) while the Pirates do not (.244 BA). Take Florida.

Free Pick: Marlins +105

**Willie Bee** · 05-14-07, 08:40 AM

Pirates to reel in Fish

Game Time: 05/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | procappers.com

Pittsburgh's offense finally got going on Sunday while Florida hit a brick wall over the weekend against Washington. Play the Pirates tonight at home versus the Marlins.

The Pirates avoided the sweep on Sunday as their offense busted out for 13 runs against the Braves, the first time this season they have plated more than seven runs. They can use that as a building block to try and win consecutive games for the first time since April 26-27. Pittsburgh is 0-5 following a win since then but things are much more in its favor this time around.

The Marlins are coming off a devastating sweep at Washington and have now lost seven of their last nine. Dontrelle Willis is having a disappointing season and he is in a rut that he just cannot get out of. He has allowed four runs or more in each of his last five outings after starting off the season with quality starts in each of his first three games. The line in his last game is quite concerning as he issued five walks, a season higher, while registering just one strikeout, a season low. He is 3-0 on the road but that is due mostly to receiving 10.3 rpg of run supports and that won’t be the case here.

The Pirates counter with Tom Gorzelanny who has been great all season. Five of his seven outings have been quality starts and most impressive has been his command as he does not get behind on hitters. He has averaged 13.4 pitches per inning in four of his last six starts and hasn’t walked more than three in any start on the year. Gorzelanny has an ERA of 2.72 on the season to go along with a solid 1.14 WHIP. He is winless at home but has gotten just 1.5 rpg in his two games at PNC Park.

Florida is just 3-8 against left-handed starters and the Marlins are 1-5 on the road against southpaws, the only win coming against Mark Redman and the Braves. Willis has been a better pitcher on the road over the last two seasons but that doesn’t equate to wins as the Marlins are just 3-13 in his last 16 starts as a road underdog and just 7-20 in his last 27 as an underdog overall. The Pirates meanwhile have won seven of their last 10 as favorites and this is an excellent price to jump on. Play Pittsburgh for one unit.

Free Pick: Pirates -110

**Willie Bee** · 05-14-07, 08:42 AM

Cubs, Mets to Stay Under 8

Game Time: 05/14/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with only seven of the last 30 meetings exceeding the total, and with Marquis and Glavine in top form, expect more of the same.

Jason Marquis, the Cubs starting pitcher tonight, has been in top form this season and is coming off a Complete Game his last time out.

Marquis is a sparkling 5-1, and he has allowed a measly nine earned runs in 47.2 innings of work, translating to a stingy 1.75 ERA. His opponent Tom Glavine, the Mets southpaw, has also been a consistent force in the rotation, going 4-1 along with a 2.98 ERA on the year. With both starting pitchers on top of their game, I expect to see a low scoring affair.

Finally, the Under is 17-7 when the Mets have gone up against right-handed starters this season, and only seven of the last 30 head-to-head meetings between these clubs have eclipsed the total!

Free Pick: Cubs, Mets Under 8

**Willie Bee** · 05-14-07, 08:43 AM

Dodgers (-145) to top Cards

Game Time: 05/14/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Lenny Del Genio | procappers.com

The Dodgers are home and looking for revenge from last season's sweep by the Cardinals. So lay it on Los Angeles this evening against St. Louis.

The Cardinals won all seven games over Los Angeles last season, outscoring the Dodgers 35-8 to sweep the season series for the first time in the 115-year history of the rivalry. Los Angeles scored more runs Sunday then it did in last season's entire series against the Cardinals though, as the Dodgers amassed a season-high 18 hits in a 10-5 win over Cincinnati. The Dodgers scored 19 runs in sweeping the three-game series from the Reds.

While the NL West-leading Dodgers' offense seems to be clicking, St. Louis has been shut out a major league-high six times this season, including Sunday's 3-0 defeat to San Diego. The Cardinals have scored a major league worst 110 runs and have failed to score at all in four of their last 10 games. Brad Thompson makes his second start of the season for the Cardinals on Monday. Thompson, who started the year in the bullpen, had an effective first start Tuesday against Colorado, allowing one run in five innings of a 4-1 win, although he did not factor in the decision.

LA starter Brett Tomko (1-3, 4.33) has made quality starts in four of his six outings this season, but finally caught a break his last time out. He threw no-hit ball for 5.1 innings against Florida on Wednesday and finished allowing three runs and five hits in 6.2 innings of the 5-3 victory. He's 2-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) against the Cardinals, who he hasn't faced since 2004. Forget that 0-7 mark last year and take the Dodgers.

Free Pick: Dodgers -145

**Willie Bee** · 05-14-07, 08:44 AM

Pirates, Marlins Over 8

Game Time: 05/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Over has proven profitable when these two teams meet, especially in Pittsburgh. Make the Over your play tonight when the Pirates host the Marlins.

The Over is 7-1 in Florida left-hander Dontrelle Willis' eight starts this season. Florida has played the Over in three of his last four starts vs. the Pirates. This season the Over is 10-6 for the Marlins on the road.

The Pirates have played the Over in two straight games. The two teams have played the Over in five of the last six meetings in Pittsburgh.

Free Pick: Marlins-Pirates Over 8

**Terpman92** · 05-14-07, 09:54 AM

Nice writeup Willie! GL today!

**mockingboy** · 05-14-07, 10:00 AM

You posted to bet on Pittsburgh and FLorida, but they are playing each other.

**AC1318** · 05-14-07, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by mockingboy

You posted to bet on Pittsburgh and FLorida, but they are playing each other.

willie posted but different guys wrote them up read the top 3 lines of each post it shows who the author was and for future reference they always write up opposing teams. At least that way someone always wins.

You are better off guessing yourself.

**Razz** · 05-14-07, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Lawrence

The first place Brewers travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies knowing they are 5-1 on Monday this season.

Yeah, I'm sure Ned Yost is passing that gem around the clubhouse.

**bigboydan** · 05-14-07, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Dodgers (-145) to top Cards

Game Time: 05/14/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Lenny Del Genio | procappers.com

The Dodgers are home and looking for revenge from last season's sweep by the Cardinals. So lay it on Los Angeles this evening against St. Louis.

The Cardinals won all seven games over Los Angeles last season, outscoring the Dodgers 35-8 to sweep the season series for the first time in the 115-year history of the rivalry. Los Angeles scored more runs Sunday then it did in last season's entire series against the Cardinals though, as the Dodgers amassed a season-high 18 hits in a 10-5 win over Cincinnati. The Dodgers scored 19 runs in sweeping the three-game series from the Reds.

While the NL West-leading Dodgers' offense seems to be clicking, St. Louis has been shut out a major league-high six times this season, including Sunday's 3-0 defeat to San Diego. The Cardinals have scored a major league worst 110 runs and have failed to score at all in four of their last 10 games. Brad Thompson makes his second start of the season for the Cardinals on Monday. Thompson, who started the year in the bullpen, had an effective first start Tuesday against Colorado, allowing one run in five innings of a 4-1 win, although he did not factor in the decision.

LA starter Brett Tomko (1-3, 4.33) has made quality starts in four of his six outings this season, but finally caught a break his last time out. He threw no-hit ball for 5.1 innings against Florida on Wednesday and finished allowing three runs and five hits in 6.2 innings of the 5-3 victory. He's 2-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) against the Cardinals, who he hasn't faced since 2004. Forget that 0-7 mark last year and take the Dodgers.

Free Pick: Dodgers -145

I disagree with this one Lenny, I like the Cardinals.

**crackerjack** · 05-14-07, 12:41 PM

I love it when the so called experts pick opposite each other. It's one reason I don't pay for picks...a case can be made for both sides in nearly every game. You are better off saving that money and making your own picks.

**AC1318** · 05-14-07, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

I disagree with this one Lenny, I like the Cardinals.

I agree BBD at them odds and the track record of the two against each other I have to side with the cards also.

**BuddyBear** · 05-14-07, 01:25 PM

I like MIL and STL today....

**Razz** · 05-14-07, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

With Milwaukee's Dave Bush in solid current form, and undefeated in his MLB career team starts against Philly, we'll back Bush and the Brewers here tonight.

Free Pick: Brewers +105

Gee, after hearing that, I probably shouldn't unload on Philly. Or, I guess I could find out if there's any validity to that at all.

Current Form:

Lost two of three (including 8 runs in 5.1 IP in his lone road start), 6.63 ERA.
23 hits, 15 runs (14 earned), 5 BB, 3 HR, in 19 IP.

Bush being undefeated against Philly:

0-0 career in two starts. 14 hits, 5 BB, 8 ER in only 11.1 IP. .292 BA, 1.68 WHIP, 6.35 ERA.

**crackerjack** · 05-15-07, 12:41 PM

Wow, free picks went 1-5. You knew there had to be at least one winner since two people picked opposite sides of the same game.