Saturday's Front Page Capper Picks

[Willie Bee]

Braves -150 with Hudson over Lowe

Game Time: 5/5/2007 7:05:00 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence

http://www.playbook.com/

Tim Hudson has pitched as well as any pitcher in baseball this year, and his teams are a perfect 7-0 in his career stats vs. the Dodgers, so look for the Braves to prevail again.

Braves send Tim Hudson to the hill against Dodgers right hander Derek Lowe, knowing Hudson is in great current form while Lowe is struggling of late.

Hudson has a remarkable 1.40 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six starts, with the Braves going 5-1 in those games. Hudson’s teams are also 7-0 in all of his career team starts against the Dodgers. Meanwhile Lowe has a 5.50 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last three starts.

Look for Hudson and the Braves to continue their winning ways tonight.

Play: Braves -150

[Willie Bee]

Take Tigers -125 to Tame Royals

Game Time: 5/5/2007 7:10:00 PM -
By: Al McMordie

http://www.bigal.com/

Mike Maroth has been a lucky charm for Detroit, as they are 20-6 as a team in his last 26 starts, so look for the Tigers to continue their recent success in Kansas City, where they are 9-1 the last 10 visits.

Detroit lefthander Mike Maroth is yet another pitcher whose year-to-date statistics are anything but Hall of Fame worthy, yet his team is somehow benefiting from his being out there.

Despite an ERA on the year of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.75, the Tigers are 5-0 in his starts, including two wins against this very same Royals team. Perhaps even more amazing, if we go back to the last 26 starts that Maroth has made for the Tigers, Detroit is an incredible 20-6! Furthermore, his team's win in his last start was against the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana. If the Tigers can win a Maroth-led game vs. the Twins and Santana, they shouldn't have any problem with the Royals and lefthander Odalis Perez.

Yes, that's the same Odalis Perez who was once a very promising young starter with the Braves and Dodgers, but who, since about 2004, has gone steadily downhill due to injuries and various other problems.

As if we needed any more reasons to like the Tigers, they are hitting more than 40 points higher against southpaws than Kansas City is, and they are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams in Kauffman Stadium. That basically says it all, so take the Tigers.

Play: Tgers -125

[Willie Bee]

Red Sox +200 to Shock Santana

Game Time: 5/5/2007 7:10:00 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group

http://www.who2beton.com/

Johan Santana has not looked like his usual self at home this season, while the Red Sox are 7-1 in their last eight road contests, so back Boston at this monstrous price.

Now we realize that it is Johan Santana on the mound for Minnesota, but we simply cannot pass up a team like the Red Sox at this enormous price.

Boston is now 19-9 on the year including 10-5 on the road after taking the series opener here last night. That marked the seventh win in the last eight road games for the Sox, who are also hitting better vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games (.282) than vs. right-handers (.267). Sure it is always an adventure with Julian Tavarez on the hill, but he has actually pitched well in two of his last three outings, and he limited the Twins to just two runs in six innings in his only career start against them.

Now Santana is obviously a Cy Young candidate, but his 3.60 ERA is actually high by his own standards, and the Twins are just 3-3 as a team in all of his starts. Also, he is almost inexplicably 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA here at home after going undefeated at home for the entire regular season last year! As if that is not enough, Minnesota is under .500 at home on the young season, at only 7-8.

Finally, do not forget the surprising Boston bullpen that leads the American League with a 2.34 ERA, and that may very well be the key to this contest as Tavarez does not figure to go more than six innings or so. Go for the value play with the Red Sox at this price.

Play: Red Sox +200

[Willie Bee]

On O's vs Indians

Game Time: 5/5/2007 7:05:00 PM -
By: John Martin

http://www.procappers.com

All the trends and the pitching matchup point to the home Orioles this evening. Back Baltimore when they entertain the Cleveland Indians.

Orioles right-hander Daniel Cabrera is 15-2 against the moneyline vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse since 1997. Cabrera is 1-0 when starting against Cleveland with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.857.

Cleveland is 32-51 against the moneyline when the moneyline is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons. Cleveland is 16-29 against the moneyline on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons. Indians starter Jeremy Sowers is 0-1 when starting against Baltimore with an ERA of 8.38 and a WHIP of 1.861.

Play: Orioles +105

[Willie Bee]

Phils, Giants Under 9

Game Time: 5/5/2007 3:55:00 PM -
By: Larry Cook

http://www.touthouse.com

The Under is the way to play this afternoon's Phillies-Giants game in San Francisco when Jon Lieber and Noah Lowry square off on the mound.

San Francisco is 45-26 Under vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start over the last three seasons.

Jon Lieber, Philadelphia's starting pitcher, has a 1.45 ERA in three starts this season. Giant's starting pitcher Noah Lowry has been great himself. He only has a 2.84 ERA in three home starts this season. The Under is 14-6-2 in San Francisco's last 22 home games. Take the Under today.

Play: Phillies-Giants Under 9

[Willie Bee]

Get on the Yanks vs Mariners

Game Time: 5/5/2007 3:55:00 PM -
By: Mike Devine

http://www.10starpicks.com

Jason Giambi and the Yankees will bounce back in a big way this afternoon when New York hosts Jeff Weaver and the Seattle Mariners in the Bronx.

Look for the Yankees to bounce back in a big way today at The Stadium as they batter the Mariners and the ineffective Jeff Weaver.

The Yankees start last year's 19-game winner Chien-Ming-Wang today as he looks to regain the form that made him the ace of the staff. He has a career mark of 4-0 with an 3.25 era against the Mariners and the Yankees are sure to be stinging from last night's embarrassment, blowing big leads and giving up 15 runs.

The Bombers have the bats, led by Jason Giambi who owns Weaver hitting five home runs off him with a career average of .540. Look for Wang to get the job done and the Yankees to hit all day long and get the comfortable win.

Play: Yankees -131

[Willie Bee]

Ride Red Sox (+202) at Twins

Game Time: 5/5/2007 7:10:00 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd

http://www.procappers.com

Take the Boston Red Sox tonight at this great price when they face Johan Santana and the Twins in Minnesota's Hankie Dome.

Boston starter Julian Tavarez is 10-2 against the moneyline in games played on artificial turf since 1997.

Tavarez is 9-4 against the moneyline as a road underdog of +150 or more since 1997, and 12-5 against the moneyline as an underdog of +150 or more since 1997. I love our chances with Boston here showing extreme value. Beantown stays hot.

Play: Red Sox +202

[Willie Bee]

Brewers to bingo vs Bucs

Game Time: 5/5/2007 7:05:00 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose



The Brewers are at home and they're red hot right now. Make Milwaukee your play tonight with Jeff Suppan on the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates send Zach Duke to the mound tonight. He's 1-2 on the year with a 6.06 ERA. Tonight he'll be in trouble vs. a Brewers team that is hitting .282 at home this season.

Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee's starter, is 4-2 this season with a 2.55 ERA. Over his last three starts his ERA is 1.57 and he's won all three of them. Milwaukee has won seven of their last 10 games when they have been favored. The Pirates have lost eight of the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee.

Play: Brewers -148

[onlooker]

I like the Braves and Brewers, but I just can't lay that vig. Maybe do them on the RL. I just hate giving a run and a half though.

[BuddyBear]

I like PITT tonight onlooker...PITT falls into some tremendous situations tonight including playing on teams that lose by >10 the night before and pitching rematchs...play on the team that lost if the same two pitchers meet and both earned decisions in the game. Good price on Pitt tonight.

[BuddyBear]

Plus Suppan threw 117 pitches in his last outing as well.....he may be a bit fatigued and the bullpen pitched 4 innings last night as well for MIL.