Yankees Over 9.5 - Why is it listed as 11 on Free Picks Page?

**buztah** · 04-26-07, 02:03 PM

I have over 9 1/2 wagered at The Greek. With the TBJ starter's ERA over 5 and the NYY starter being a rookie vs a TBJ club that hits well, I see this one being a real shootout. Likely see over 15 scored.

Play: over 9 1/2 total runs.

**ShowMeDaMoney** · 04-26-07, 02:15 PM

Completely with you buztah. Sure, this guy is the Yankees most prized guy in the minors, but, he is not supposed to be in the majors yet... clearly! Anyone who needs some evidence that this is a move the Yankees never hoped to make so early?

Torres comments on having three minor league starters in his rotation... " Give me another option, and I will take it..."

Yanks put up over 6.5 a game alone, I am loving this play. Most likely would have played it at 10 or even 10.5... was very pleased to see 9.5 - Burnett... jury still out on him.

**The HG** · 04-26-07, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by ShowMeDaMoney

So I just placed a seven unit play on the Yankees over tonight. I got it at 9.5 on 5dimes.com

Was curious what others think of this play, so I come here only to find an article written (one of those free picks articles) about how the under 11 is a great play today. Why did I receive 9.5 and others are getting 11? No way the different books are off by a full run and a half or am I wrong? Any information is appreciate.

Let's go RUNS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Because there was a pitching change. The article was written before the change, when the line was 11 yesterday.

**ShowMeDaMoney** · 04-26-07, 02:20 PM

That's what I assumed as well, but then I read the last paragraph and they clearly talk about Hughes AAA performance, and then Burnett's strong start to the season. Maybe I am tripping?

**The HG** · 04-26-07, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by ShowMeDaMoney

That's what I assumed as well, but then I read the last paragraph and they clearly talk about Hughes AAA performance, and then Burnett's strong start to the season. Maybe I am tripping?

You're not tripping, Burnett was the change. I think the 11 came from Towers being slated to pitch. I hope it was an honest mistake on Big Al's part, and not an intentional way to get 1.5 runs on a pick that never existed to make himself seem better. Big Al has been around a long time, and doesn't need to do petty trickery like that. If it was an honest mistake I'd still be surprised though. If I had seen 11 with Burnett starting my first thought would have been "bad line".

**buztah** · 04-26-07, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by ShowMeDaMoney

Completely with you buztah. Sure, this guy is the Yankees most prized guy in the minors, but, he is not supposed to be in the majors yet... clearly! Anyone who needs some evidence that this is a move the Yankees never hoped to make so early?

Torres comments on having three minor league starters in his rotation... " Give me another option, and I will take it..."

Yanks put up over 6.5 a game alone, I am loving this play. Most likely would have played it at 10 or even 10.5... was very pleased to see 9.5 - Burnett... jury still out on him.

Plus Yankee bats alone could get us over 9 1/2 as the Bombers are desperate for a win and hit very well, especially given the TBJ starter's poor ERA. I figure this one plays out with the Yanks getting a much needed win in a real offensive show. 12-8 Yanks.

**kayvebear** · 04-26-07, 02:55 PM

yankees 10, tor 6.

**Hulu** · 04-26-07, 04:47 PM

Be careful with this one though. Its raining in the area and although bad weather typically favours the over, the game may end prematurely and you may only have 5 innings or so.

**icsky3** · 04-26-07, 05:04 PM

yeah i took over. this hughes kid isnt going to be amazing im sure. plus his first start is at yankee stadium which will be a verrrry tough spot to have ur firl ML start. especially in the condition the yankees are in thus far. a lot of pressure on the young kid tonight. GL

**bigboydan** · 04-26-07, 05:12 PM

Even with the rookie pitcher starting for the Yankees tonight. I still have to wonder if this game will go over considering the Jays lineup:

Code:

Toronto
  	AB 	R 	H 	RBI 	BB 	K 	LOB 	Season Avg 
A. Rios rf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.264 	
A. Lind lf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.312 	
V. Wells cf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.291 	
F. Thomas dh 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.247 	
L. Overbay 1b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.236 	
A. Hill 2b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.316 	
J. Smith 3b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.250 	
J. Phillips c 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.350 	
J. McDonald ss 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.500 	
 Totals 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0

Heres the Yankees lineup in case anyone is wanting to know:

Code:

 NY Yankees
  	AB 	R 	H 	RBI 	BB 	K 	LOB 	Season Avg 
J. Damon cf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.250 	
D. Jeter ss 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.316 	
B. Abreu rf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.293 	
A. Rodriguez 3b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.385 	
J. Giambi dh 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.293 	
H. Matsui lf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.278 	
J. Posada c 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.344 	
R. Cano 2b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.307 	
D. Mientkiewicz 1b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.163 	
 Totals 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0

**rjt721** · 04-26-07, 05:24 PM

I think there's a good chance the Yanks destroy Burnett, but I actually think Hughes is going to pitch a great game tonight.

**The HG** · 04-26-07, 05:26 PM

I have to say guys, I'm not entirely sold on this over. I can see the argument of course. But Burnett can be good, and if he is sharp, and Hughes comes out sharp for his start, it might be a struggle to get over. It's cold and nippy here in NYC. Be a bit cautious, no need to overdo anything here, IMO. GL to everyone though.

**ShowMeDaMoney** · 04-26-07, 06:23 PM

He has let in a run already, and seventeen pitches in so far. I'll take my chances. I think this kid is going to get a bit roughed up, and then hand it to the NYY pen... which isn't that much better sometimes. Not to mention the Yanks are a scoring machine. I love my bet as long as the weather holds up. If the game goes five, and gets cancelled...I lose a bet that I placed on the entire game? I use 5dimes.com

Added another few units to this play... my biggest single play of the year thus far.

**ShowMeDaMoney** · 04-26-07, 06:27 PM

I like what I see. Hughes is looking very nervous and unsettled, just as I expected. Come on boys... bring 'em home!!

Has A-Rod hit a HR in the last two games? Isn't he due for a few today?

**LT Profits** · 04-26-07, 06:40 PM

Guys,

For what is worth, this total OPENED at 10.5 at 5 Dimes just before 11 AM ET this morning, as you can clearly see in the baseball contest line. So yes, it really did move a full run at least, and I believe I did see an 11 opener at the same time 5 Dimes opened the line, so Big Al was not tripping.

**LT Profits** · 04-26-07, 06:43 PM

I should clariry, in this case, by "opener", I mean the first posted line up this moring in the 10:00 hour after the game was off the board overnight due to pitching change.

**joey825** · 04-26-07, 07:22 PM

I got the O at 10. Sportsbook.com

**ShowMeDaMoney** · 04-26-07, 07:49 PM

Pretty nuts that the line moved a full run and a half from the open at 5dimes. I know of a few websites where you can view where the public is on wagers, and how much has been put on each side or total... but the website that I use does not seem like a big enough case study. Do you guys know any sites that combine information from various different websites for public data?

Over looks okay at 9.5 right now, not awesome. We have three on the board, and I gotta figure the Yanks will score too. Guess it's a bull pen game at this point once they yank the pitchers which should be soon. Both pitchers have high pitch counts for a game this early...so I like that. BOL all.

Thanks for the info. Profits.

**icsky3** · 04-26-07, 09:20 PM

well toronto did there job. bleh yankees score nothing? one inning to go.. maybe they'll make another insane comeback.

**kayvebear** · 04-26-07, 09:36 PM

cant believe they held yankees to nothing. they are in a huge slump. meanwhile red sox pull it off. sorry this one didnt come in showmedamoney. youll get em next time. :/